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I disagree with you guys. I’m not sure that I rate the animal.
Today he beat two Stoute animals which probably didn’t stay, am overmatched Ryan handicapper, a hyped Charlton drifter who may not have trained on, and a Gosden horse who couldn’t quicken in the ground.
Authorised looked good, granted. He looked real sexy going past them all on the bridle. And he might still be improving. My view is that he will have to. There’s nothing substantial here. And if the weather drys up, will he handle the ground?
6/4. Not for me, but best of luck.
Does anything have stronger credentials going into the race at present? No. Do I want to back him at 6/4. No.
6/4 not for me either, but was certainly the most visually impressive trial winner, and PCH likes to leave a bit to work on. Will more than likely drift to a backable price on the day.<br>Nobody seems to agree but I think Aqaleem was quiet impressive too, a little saver for me.
authorized looked pretty fit to me, not sure how much improvment he has in him, he reminds me of dilshan who was trained by m stoute who had a very simliar profile. The thing with authorized is he has been very impressive both times he has raced on heavy,soft ground,dont believe he will be any where near as good on faster ground that you 99%per cent of the time get at epsom.<br>
(Edited by newyork at 9:09 pm on May 17, 2007)
Whether or not Authorized goes on to win the Derby remains to be seen, but it is starting to look fairly safe to say that this season’s Craven was a pretty mediocre event.
This years Craven was a poor event. Thousand Words ran a good race in France but that is as good as he is, somewhere between 110 – 113. Adagio is pretty much the same level give or take a pound or two and depending on conditions.
It’ll take a goodun to beat Authorised at Epsom because as good as he was today he can only improve and improve quite a bit I would think for a real stamina test being by Montjeu out of a Saumarez mare. He has good speed and will stay every inch. He hasn’t encountered really fast ground yet but it was pretty much good today and I doubt it’ll be significantly faster at Epsom.
He’s a short price and there’s no way I’d back him at 6/4 but he deserves to be that price IMO. He has some engine and he doesn’t seem to have any real weakness.
Quote: from madman marz on 5:54 pm on May 17, 2007[br]6/4 not for me either, but was certainly the most visually impressive trial winner, and PCH likes to leave a bit to work on. Will more than likely drift to a backable price on the day.<br>Nobody seems to agree but I think Aqaleem was quiet impressive too, a little saver for me.<br>
I agree with you I thought Aqaleem ran a good trial. Looked green too and should improve both for the experience and for a faster run race.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a decent race at Epsom.
Quote: from Flash on 9:16 pm on May 17, 2007[br]
He’s a short price and there’s no way I’d back him at 6/4 but he deserves to be that price IMO. He has some engine and he doesn’t seem to have any real weakness.<br>
I’m confused, how can it be a no way i’d back him at 6-4, but he deserves to be that price at same time?
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(Edited by empty wallet at 9:28 pm on May 17, 2007)
Quote: from empty wallet on 9:27 pm on May 17, 2007[br]
Quote: from Flash on 9:16 pm on May 17, 2007[br]
He’s a short price and there’s no way I’d back him at 6/4 but he deserves to be that price IMO. He has some engine and he doesn’t seem to have any real weakness.<br>
I’m confused, how can it be a no way i’d back him at 6-4, but he deserves to be that price at same time?
<br>(Edited by empty wallet at 9:28 pm on May 17, 2007)<br>
Because I don’t back horses at that sort of price thats all.
OK Flash, no probs m8, your statement confused me thats all
<br>If you think he’s not worth backing at 6-4 then he should really be a lay and i was just trying to understand what you meant
Gareth, the immediate post-race commentary on all the various media was that Authorized was highly impressive and will take all the beating at Epsom.
I thought the Dante lacked substance, at least in terms of a decent yardstick, and 6/4 is a ludicrous price. The Motivator beat a better field in his Dante and was 5/2 and 3’s in the aftermath.
Soldier of Fortune proved he can battle. Aqaleem proved he can quicken. I would be interested to talk to David Elsworth about his reaction, bearing in mind the esteem in which he holds Salford Mill. All three can be backed at much better prices and, to my mind, all have similar chances to the Chapple-Hyam horse.
What exactly did Authorized prove it could do today, that we didn’t already know?
I tend to agree with you Max and don’t forget Archipenko, another promising 3yo and AoB has stated plenty more to come
(Edited by empty wallet at 9:51 pm on May 17, 2007)
By saying Soldier of Fortune has proved he can battle, infers that Authorized has yet to prove he can. Is than just not bizarre to crab a horse for winning a Racing Post Trophy and a Dante as he likes. Soldier of Fortune’s Chester form means little in the context of Epsom and I don’t think he’d finish in the first 3 if O’Brien has a private race between his four or 5 candidates. Archipenko looks far from certain to stay judged on pedigree whilst his Derrinstown form left more questions than answers, the race steadily run and the form horse failing to give his running.
I can see why everyone is trying to get him beat at 6/4, but the fact is, at this stage, he has by far the best credentials and there should be more to come.
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 9:43 pm on May 17, 2007[br] The Motivator beat a better field in his Dante and was 5/2 and 3’s in the aftermath.<br>
Given that there’s no Teofilo or Holy roman Emperor and Motivator was going up against Dubawi and Gypsy King in the derby, that may explain the price differential.
My view is that Authorized is as good a horse as Motivator… But, like EW I also think Archipenko could be every bit as good. He obviously saves himself for the racecourse and is a pretty relaxed individual. O’Brien said in his pre-race comments he’d been difficult to get fit and would come on for the run. Definitely improvement to come. I think he is too big a price.
David, <br>Adagio ain’t quite stayed today, Charlton horse ran no race, so your left with Raincoat and Al Shemali, do you think Raincoat and Al Shemali are good markers?
you could also throw a blanket over Yellowstone, Adagio and Al Shemali in Guineas, so how much better Authorized ran than Archipenko, i’m not sure
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:37 pm on May 17, 2007)
Its easy to get carried away with visually impressive winners, as I did with Adagio [ put him in my ten to follow ].<br>But I am convinced Authorised is the real deal. Alright he didn’t beat much, and Adagio plainly didn’t stay, but the way he travelled and put daylight between himself and the rest with the minimum of fuss, the word impressive springs to mind. As I have already said PCH likes to leave a bit of work on [ Dutch Art arguably unlucky in guineas ] so there is almost certainly more improvement to come, if he even needs to improve !.<br>
(Edited by madman marz at 10:51 pm on May 17, 2007)
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