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  • #59871
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
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    • Total Posts 2432

    Are you suggesting a comfortable win in the RP Trophy and an impressive win in the Dante isn’t substantive form?

    To an extent, RH. I don’t think Authorized achieved much more than Aqaleem did at Lingfield.  And to be honest, how good was the Racing Post trophy?

    Can I just point out that I’m a big fan of Chapple Hyam and Authorized could well win the Blue Riband five lengths. I just think the market has overreacted.

    #59872
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Quote: from empty wallet on 11:24 am on May 18, 2007[br]<br>another Visindar imhaho, people are being draw in by the visual performance rather than the merit of the performance imo

    Now there may be more to come, but speculating on more to come at 6-4 is a fast way to the poor house imo

    (Edited by empty wallet at 11:24 am on May 18, 2007)<br>

    EW, I think you should look at what Visindar had and what Authorized has achieved before the derby… Visindar didn;t have form with any of the principals and won what was a group 2 in name only before the derby.. His trainer/jockey combination ensured the price. Authorized has actually done it.. So how you are speculating on what he might do I don’t know. He has the best form in the race, it’s not based on a few bloodless wins at a lower level.. Come the day if he hacks up you’ll look at it and it will be obvious. If he doesn;t i’ll eat humble pie!!! (Unless Archipinko wins)

    I’m not convinced Eagle Mountain will run in the derby. I think they might send him to France.

    #59873
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Where has Authorized done it?

    RP Trophy  on Heavy?

    Were horses like Eagle Mountain and Regime running on worst ground that day? i believe so,

    Is beating Charles Farnsbarn,  Medicine Path and Thousand words  good form? i don’t think so

    are the majority of other runners also open to improvement,  i believe so

    <br>As stated,  6-4 yer having a larf

    horse has not the form to warrant the price, the race is more competitive than the market  is stating,  just like Visindar’s Derby

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:23 pm on May 18, 2007)<br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:27 pm on May 18, 2007)

    #59874
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    So Eagle mountain and Regime happened to run on worst ground? Not sure how you justify that, they were beaten fair and square.. Charlie Farnsbarns hasn’t run this season so you don;t really know how good he is. Thousand Words is a soft ground horse so probably ran better than he did in our guineas. Medicine Path granted. And I don;t disagree, others can improve but you can say the same for Authorized (Using your logic).. Therefore he has the best form in the race and fully deserves to be quite a short price… Sometimes you can try and look too hard for value when its staring you right in the face..

    #59875
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    I had to laugh this morning.

    Top trainer Michael Bell was discussing the Lockinge and specifically, the price differential between Red Evie and Peeress based on last years Matron stakes.

    "If one has won on the only occasion they have met and she is 10-1 and the other 7-4 favourite there is no logic to it, but there we are"

    (From the Sporting Life website).

    Aqaleem and Authorised anyone? 14’s and 6/4? (Admittedly, the former may not run – but it’s likely).

    I support what empty is saying here. There isn’t that much in it.

    #59876
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Max

    Based on that logic. What price should Teslin be for the Derby and have you had your house on that horse in the Glasgow Stakes tonight?

    #59877
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Aragorn, If you believe Regime and Eagle Mountain were beaten fair and square then i fear for yer

    <br>Not my words, the race reporters

     Regime, a long way ahead of Charlie Farnsbarns when second at the Curragh, was rather geed up in the parade ring and ran below form, weakening in the final furlong after a short-lived effort on the far side of the pack

    <br>  REGIME’s connections were inclined to blame the ground and racing away from the principals for being soundly thrashed at Group 1

    <br>Eagle Mountain was arguably the least impressive of the O’Brien quartet on looks but stood out on form, having appeared to relish broadly similar conditions when a runaway winner of the Beresford Stakes. Having been held up he rather laboured this time, and though he had to be switched for his effort, having momentarily found his path blocked, he was in no sense unlucky. Aidan O’Brien said afterwards that the ground here was deeper than at the Curragh, and that he had never really been able to use his stride in a bunched field. He is better than this,

    (Edited by empty wallet at 12:52 pm on May 18, 2007)

    #59878
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Peeress should have won that race but for interference and getting boxed in (That happened twice to her last year) also the ground for tomorrow is going to very much in her favour.. I agree that Red Evie is a good price..

    But back to Aqaleem, he had already run once before meeting Authorized (Debut) so had experience on his side. He then beat a pretty poor field in the lingfield trial… He stayed on well that day and to be honest he looks more of a leger horse, but if you think the price is wrong, then get on it..

    Incidentally, what price do you think Authorized should be?

    #59879
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    EW,

    They often find reasons for well beaten favourites.. Especially when turned over by a 25/1 shot.. Do you honestly think they were unlucky and not beaten fair and square? Watch the race EW, don;t let someone else form your opinion. You can find it on Youtube, just search racing post trophy… And come back and tell me how exactly he was lucky, or those other horses weren’t.. He won easily, not all out, easily…

    #59880
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Iwatched the race, watched the replays  and neither ran their races that day

    <br>i also know what both horses are capable of, one is capable of running Teofilo to head, the other is capable of running second from a bias draw in Goffs million (with Finscael Beo behind him)

    It’s all about opinion and imo at 6-4 yer having a larf, I’ll gladly lay this horse having the above mentioned horses on my side come Derby Day

    #59881
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Fair play… No doubt a complete outsider from a small stable will come from last to first proving us all wrong!! :biggrin: ;)

    Best of luck

    #59882
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    DJ,

    Based on that logic. What price should Teslin be for the Derby and have you had your house on that horse in the Glasgow Stakes tonight?

    :biggrin:

    True – on the surface. Teslin ran his Derby that day at Newbury – was well backed – and clearly hasn’t trained on as well as Mark Johnston expected.

    If we take Teslin as a yardstick, then both horses are Listed at best. The Craven appears sub-standard. My contention is that wherever the one finishes, the other will be thereabouts. The price differential is just too big.

    Both improved after Newbury, though admittedly Authorized appears a quicker learner.

    #59883
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    No surprise to hear that Frankie has been named to ride Authorise in the Derby – he was obviously impressed enough!<br>On a side note, if Paddy Powers are continuing their offer, any other runner can be backed with cash returned if Frankie wins, could be one of the most costly ricks ever made by a major bookmaker.<br>Also, as pointed out on another thread, the refund of 12 month’s fees by RUK – £30 dearer than Setanta – is the equivalent of backing Authorised at 5/1.<br>Is it Xmas already?

    (Edited by reet hard at 3:58 pm on May 18, 2007)

    #59884
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Coral now go 11/10 Authorised, I thought the horse might drift out on the day, seems even the 6/4 is been snapped up. Probably be lucky to get 5/4 on the day.<br>I personaly wont back it at such short odds, will probably back Aqaleem e/w, but there is no doubting Authorised is the most likely winner.

    #59885
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    The Dettori factor, Madman.  

    It used to be the same with the great Lester – and so it should be. Dettori is a shiny jewel in the wider shop window and he’ll get the uncommitted involved in the world’s finest horse race – the one that started it all off. That’s a good thing, and I applaud Sheikh Mohammed’s sporting decision to let him ride.

    But.

    As a punter who takes the game seriously – which I assume you are – would you seriously back a horse who is unproven at the trip, on undulations, on a graveyard of a track, who may need a plenty of cut to run to its best, who is facing several fancied opponents…

    …and worse, ridden by a jockey with a race record of 0-14?

    No. I’m still a layer as it stands.;) <br>

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 67 total)
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