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  • #59856
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    By saying Soldier of Fortune has proved he can battle, infers that Authorized has yet to prove he can. Is than just not bizarre to crab a horse for winning a Racing Post Trophy and a Dante as he likes. Soldier of Fortune’s Chester form means little in the context of Epsom and I don’t think he’d finish in the first 3 if O’Brien has a private race between his four or 5 candidates. Archipenko looks far from certain to stay judged on pedigree whilst his Derrinstown form left more questions than answers, the race steadily run and the form horse failing to give his running.

    I can see why everyone is trying to get him beat at 6/4, but the fact is, at this stage, he has by far the best credentials and there should be more to come.

    #59857
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 9:43 pm on May 17, 2007[br] The Motivator beat a better field in his Dante and was 5/2 and 3’s in the aftermath.<br>

    Given that there’s no Teofilo or Holy roman Emperor and Motivator was going up against Dubawi and Gypsy King in the derby, that may explain the price differential.

    My view is that Authorized is as good a horse as Motivator… But, like EW I also think Archipenko could be every bit as good. He obviously saves himself for the racecourse and is a pretty relaxed individual. O’Brien said in his pre-race comments he’d been difficult to get fit and would come on for the run. Definitely improvement to come. I think he is too big a price.

    #59858
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    David, <br>Adagio ain’t quite stayed today, Charlton horse ran no race, so your left with Raincoat and Al Shemali, do  you think  Raincoat and Al Shemali are good markers?

    you could also throw a blanket over  Yellowstone, Adagio and Al Shemali in Guineas, so how much better Authorized  ran  than Archipenko,  i’m not sure

    (Edited by empty wallet at 10:37 pm on May 17, 2007)

    #59859
    madman marz
    Member
    • Total Posts 707

    Its easy to get carried away with visually impressive winners, as I did with Adagio [ put him in my ten to follow ].<br>But I am convinced Authorised is the real deal. Alright he didn’t beat much, and Adagio plainly didn’t stay, but the way he travelled and put daylight between himself and the rest with the minimum of fuss, the word impressive springs to mind. As I have already said PCH likes to leave a bit of work on [ Dutch Art arguably unlucky in guineas ] so there is almost certainly more improvement to come, if he even needs to improve !.<br>

    (Edited by madman marz at 10:51 pm on May 17, 2007)

    #59860
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    empty

    We probably don’t know enough about either of them other than to say, they had profiles to suggest they would improve under conditions like they met with today. Aside from the horses he beat, historical data gives us a pretty good guide as to how good a 4-length winner of the Dante is.

    Personally I think Authorized has shown form 7 or 8 lb superior to Archipenko so far.

    #59861
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    RP analysis states 8 winners of the Dante have gone on to win Derby since 1958

    Not a very good record  really for a Top trial

    (Edited by empty wallet at 11:02 pm on May 17, 2007)

    #59862
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    He looked impressive, Madman.  But so did Aqaleem who has now proved that he can quicken at the distance on an undulating track.

    Aqaleem and Authorized have previous and the former came out on top the only time they met. I’m not saying that this will prove any guide to the Derby, but at the respective prices, I know which one appeals more. I can’t see the horse missing the gig either. The King Edward is a consolation, not a target imo.

    Salford Mill is the apple of Elsworth’s eye. Coolmore have plenty to choose from, including, as Empty points out, Archipenko, (who I’ve not seen in action) and a potentially resurgent Godolphin have yet to play their cards too.

    Others include Regime who looked improved at Sandown and Strategic Prince, (who has always been considered a Derby, not a Guineas horse and the stable are finally showing signs of hitting form). Then there is the Predominate to come. Aragorn, this is why I’d price the horse similar to Motivator.;)

    DJ, I see your point. You can only beat what is in the next few stalls but 6/4 is ludicrous with all the field options. The last winners to go off so short in a Derby were Nashwan in 1989, (5/4) and fellow Racing Post trophy winner, Reference Point two years earlier, (6/4). They both had substantive form which deserved the accolade of such skinny prices.

    <br>

    (Edited by Maxilon 5 at 11:51 pm on May 17, 2007)

    #59863
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3099

    <br>Max,

    I think you’ll find that the Predominate is long gone rather than still to come – Goodwood have dropped their trial races and reduced their May meeting to two days.

    AP

    #59864
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1089

    Authorized must have a very good chance in the Derby.<br>But what chance if Frankie rides?<br>RUK will refund any new subscribers to their channel<br>if this happens or if Frankie wins on any other horse in the race.

    #59865
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Max,

    Aqaleem didn;t quicken, he just stayed, i’m not sure he will have the raw pace to win the derby. Salford Mill has only won a listed race and has plenty to find, regime isn;t good enough (Authorized has masses in hand and Bell obviously had metaphoric and not this colt in mind for epsom), Strategic prince has solid form but you would have hoped he’d get closer in the guineas to have a strong chance. Archipenko won what I would consider Irelands top trial and he is the main danger and should be second favourite to my eyes.. I can understand why the horse is 6/4 though..

    Other than Authorised how many group 1 winners will there be in the field? None unless cockney rebel, Teofilo, Dutch Art or Mount Nelson turn up which doesn’t look likely.. Hence why Authorized is favourite..

    #59866
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    I thought the Predominate was on Friday, AP. they’ve really messed about with that meeting. And it was such a good one too.

    Aragorn, that’s the great thing about betting. One of us will have a full wallet come June 2nd.:biggrin:  

    #59867
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 11:49 pm on May 17, 2007[br]<br>DJ, I see your point. You can only beat what is in the next few stalls but 6/4 is ludicrous with all the field options. The last winners to go off so short in a Derby were Nashwan in 1989, (5/4) and fellow Racing Post trophy winner, Reference Point two years earlier, (6/4). They both had substantive form which deserved the accolade of such skinny prices.<br>

    Max

    Are you suggesting a comfortable win in the RP Trophy and an impressive win in the Dante isn’t substantive form?<br>Difficult to recall any recent renewals being poor form, so to win them both so well surely stacks up as the best form in the race, and by some way, the doubtful Teofilo apart.<br>I wasn’t impressed with Authorised myself until yesterday, but it would be churlish to deny how well he won in what is normally the most significant of the trials.<br>The horse looks sure to improve for the race, is certain to improve for the extra distance, and what appears a tight price at the moment could look like finding money in the street come the evening of the race.<br>Imo, of course.

    #59868
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Yesterday was free money (evens? How it was that price I don’t know).. I would be less confident in the derby but I will still back him..

    #59869
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    Just to name a few in with a shout

    Derby 2007

    Eagle Mountain<br>Archipenko<br>Strategic Prince<br>Soldier of Fortune<br>Regime<br>Amiralofthefleet<br>Aqaleem<br>Salford Mill

    <br>Authorized 6-4, yer having a larf

    <br>another Visindar imhaho, people are being draw in by the visual performance rather than the merit of the performance imo

    <br>He beat winner of weak trial, an also ran in Guineas  and a non staying Craven winner/also ran in Guineas

    <br>Now there may be more to come, but speculating on more to come at 6-4 is a fast way to the poor house imo

    <br>

    (Edited by empty wallet at 11:24 am on May 18, 2007)

    #59870
    Money on
    Member
    • Total Posts 178

    I think Eagle Mountain is the main contender to Autorized for the derby. His 2yo form is outstanding and surpasses any of the other O’ Brien runners. His head defeat to Teofilo and he also beat the guineas winner a short head and finished half a length to the guineas second. He then was sent off 8/11 for the RP Trophy and sufferd a bad passage although he would never of beat Autorized. He did have a long season and the trophy may have been 1 too many for him last year. His 5th in the Guineas was a very promising run as O Brien quoted he wasn’t 100% fit and the step up in distance will be ideal and the making of him. It will be interesting to see riding arangements and i hope Souillimon keeps the ride as he rides Epsom well enough.

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