- This topic has 66 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
empty
We probably don’t know enough about either of them other than to say, they had profiles to suggest they would improve under conditions like they met with today. Aside from the horses he beat, historical data gives us a pretty good guide as to how good a 4-length winner of the Dante is.
Personally I think Authorized has shown form 7 or 8 lb superior to Archipenko so far.
RP analysis states 8 winners of the Dante have gone on to win Derby since 1958
Not a very good record really for a Top trial
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:02 pm on May 17, 2007)
He looked impressive, Madman.  But so did Aqaleem who has now proved that he can quicken at the distance on an undulating track.
Aqaleem and Authorized have previous and the former came out on top the only time they met. I’m not saying that this will prove any guide to the Derby, but at the respective prices, I know which one appeals more. I can’t see the horse missing the gig either. The King Edward is a consolation, not a target imo.
Salford Mill is the apple of Elsworth’s eye. Coolmore have plenty to choose from, including, as Empty points out, Archipenko, (who I’ve not seen in action) and a potentially resurgent Godolphin have yet to play their cards too.
Others include Regime who looked improved at Sandown and Strategic Prince, (who has always been considered a Derby, not a Guineas horse and the stable are finally showing signs of hitting form). Then there is the Predominate to come. Aragorn, this is why I’d price the horse similar to Motivator.;)
DJ, I see your point. You can only beat what is in the next few stalls but 6/4 is ludicrous with all the field options. The last winners to go off so short in a Derby were Nashwan in 1989, (5/4) and fellow Racing Post trophy winner, Reference Point two years earlier, (6/4). They both had substantive form which deserved the accolade of such skinny prices.
<br>
(Edited by Maxilon 5 at 11:51 pm on May 17, 2007)
<br>Max,
I think you’ll find that the Predominate is long gone rather than still to come – Goodwood have dropped their trial races and reduced their May meeting to two days.
AP
Authorized must have a very good chance in the Derby.<br>But what chance if Frankie rides?<br>RUK will refund any new subscribers to their channel<br>if this happens or if Frankie wins on any other horse in the race.
Max,
Aqaleem didn;t quicken, he just stayed, i’m not sure he will have the raw pace to win the derby. Salford Mill has only won a listed race and has plenty to find, regime isn;t good enough (Authorized has masses in hand and Bell obviously had metaphoric and not this colt in mind for epsom), Strategic prince has solid form but you would have hoped he’d get closer in the guineas to have a strong chance. Archipenko won what I would consider Irelands top trial and he is the main danger and should be second favourite to my eyes.. I can understand why the horse is 6/4 though..
Other than Authorised how many group 1 winners will there be in the field? None unless cockney rebel, Teofilo, Dutch Art or Mount Nelson turn up which doesn’t look likely.. Hence why Authorized is favourite..
I thought the Predominate was on Friday, AP. they’ve really messed about with that meeting. And it was such a good one too.
Aragorn, that’s the great thing about betting. One of us will have a full wallet come June 2nd.:biggrin:
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 11:49 pm on May 17, 2007[br]<br>DJ, I see your point. You can only beat what is in the next few stalls but 6/4 is ludicrous with all the field options. The last winners to go off so short in a Derby were Nashwan in 1989, (5/4) and fellow Racing Post trophy winner, Reference Point two years earlier, (6/4). They both had substantive form which deserved the accolade of such skinny prices.<br>
Max
Are you suggesting a comfortable win in the RP Trophy and an impressive win in the Dante isn’t substantive form?<br>Difficult to recall any recent renewals being poor form, so to win them both so well surely stacks up as the best form in the race, and by some way, the doubtful Teofilo apart.<br>I wasn’t impressed with Authorised myself until yesterday, but it would be churlish to deny how well he won in what is normally the most significant of the trials.<br>The horse looks sure to improve for the race, is certain to improve for the extra distance, and what appears a tight price at the moment could look like finding money in the street come the evening of the race.<br>Imo, of course.
Yesterday was free money (evens? How it was that price I don’t know).. I would be less confident in the derby but I will still back him..
Just to name a few in with a shout
Derby 2007
Eagle Mountain<br>Archipenko<br>Strategic Prince<br>Soldier of Fortune<br>Regime<br>Amiralofthefleet<br>Aqaleem<br>Salford Mill
<br>Authorized 6-4, yer having a larf
<br>another Visindar imhaho, people are being draw in by the visual performance rather than the merit of the performance imo
<br>He beat winner of weak trial, an also ran in Guineas and a non staying Craven winner/also ran in Guineas
<br>Now there may be more to come, but speculating on more to come at 6-4 is a fast way to the poor house imo
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:24 am on May 18, 2007)
I think Eagle Mountain is the main contender to Autorized for the derby. His 2yo form is outstanding and surpasses any of the other O’ Brien runners. His head defeat to Teofilo and he also beat the guineas winner a short head and finished half a length to the guineas second. He then was sent off 8/11 for the RP Trophy and sufferd a bad passage although he would never of beat Autorized. He did have a long season and the trophy may have been 1 too many for him last year. His 5th in the Guineas was a very promising run as O Brien quoted he wasn’t 100% fit and the step up in distance will be ideal and the making of him. It will be interesting to see riding arangements and i hope Souillimon keeps the ride as he rides Epsom well enough.
Are you suggesting a comfortable win in the RP Trophy and an impressive win in the Dante isn’t substantive form?
To an extent, RH. I don’t think Authorized achieved much more than Aqaleem did at Lingfield. And to be honest, how good was the Racing Post trophy?
Can I just point out that I’m a big fan of Chapple Hyam and Authorized could well win the Blue Riband five lengths. I just think the market has overreacted.
Quote: from empty wallet on 11:24 am on May 18, 2007[br]<br>another Visindar imhaho, people are being draw in by the visual performance rather than the merit of the performance imo
Now there may be more to come, but speculating on more to come at 6-4 is a fast way to the poor house imo
(Edited by empty wallet at 11:24 am on May 18, 2007)<br>
EW, I think you should look at what Visindar had and what Authorized has achieved before the derby… Visindar didn;t have form with any of the principals and won what was a group 2 in name only before the derby.. His trainer/jockey combination ensured the price. Authorized has actually done it.. So how you are speculating on what he might do I don’t know. He has the best form in the race, it’s not based on a few bloodless wins at a lower level.. Come the day if he hacks up you’ll look at it and it will be obvious. If he doesn;t i’ll eat humble pie!!! (Unless Archipinko wins)
I’m not convinced Eagle Mountain will run in the derby. I think they might send him to France.
Where has Authorized done it?
RP Trophy on Heavy?
Were horses like Eagle Mountain and Regime running on worst ground that day? i believe so,
Is beating Charles Farnsbarn, Medicine Path and Thousand words good form? i don’t think so
are the majority of other runners also open to improvement, i believe so
<br>As stated, 6-4 yer having a larf
horse has not the form to warrant the price, the race is more competitive than the market is stating, just like Visindar’s Derby
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:23 pm on May 18, 2007)<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:27 pm on May 18, 2007)
So Eagle mountain and Regime happened to run on worst ground? Not sure how you justify that, they were beaten fair and square.. Charlie Farnsbarns hasn’t run this season so you don;t really know how good he is. Thousand Words is a soft ground horse so probably ran better than he did in our guineas. Medicine Path granted. And I don;t disagree, others can improve but you can say the same for Authorized (Using your logic).. Therefore he has the best form in the race and fully deserves to be quite a short price… Sometimes you can try and look too hard for value when its staring you right in the face..
I had to laugh this morning.
Top trainer Michael Bell was discussing the Lockinge and specifically, the price differential between Red Evie and Peeress based on last years Matron stakes.
"If one has won on the only occasion they have met and she is 10-1 and the other 7-4 favourite there is no logic to it, but there we are"
(From the Sporting Life website).
Aqaleem and Authorised anyone? 14’s and 6/4? (Admittedly, the former may not run – but it’s likely).
I support what empty is saying here. There isn’t that much in it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.