May 31, 2007 at 04:41 #1830AnonymousInactive
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The first proper middle distance test of the season tomorrow, and a small but interesting field. Prices are available with a number of books, though there is again a depressing similarity about the odds on offer. Is there no bookmaker big enough to take a view at all these days?
Sixties Icon 7/4<br>7th in last year’s Derby, and progressed from that to win St Leger very convincingly.Impressive winner of steadily run Jockey Club Stakes on first outing this season, beating gp3 winner Admiral’s Cruise comfortably despite circumstances not playing to his strengths.<br>Unraced on soft ground since his maiden win, but no problems anticipated.
Sir Percy 5/2<br>Dewhurst and Derby winner, interspersed by Guineas 2nd to George Washington. Disappointed in Champion Stakes when returning from a setback, but showed with his close-up 4th to Vengeance Of Rain in the Dubai Sheema Classic that the setback wasn’t permanent.<br>Won the gp2 Champagne Stakes on soft as a 2yo, but reckoned by his stable to better on good going.
Won last year’s soft ground Dante from subsequent Irish Derby 3rd Best Alibi. Disappointed in the Derby, his only run on fast ground, without any obvious explanation, but didn’t appear again until this year’s Mooresbridge Stakes, where he comfortably accounted for gp2 winner, Fracas. <br>Obviously a warm-up race, and bound to improve for it. Unproven at the distance, though unlikely to be a problem, and soft ground probably to his advantage.
Journeyman gp2 horse who has yet to win a gp1, despite 9 previous attempts. Came closest when beaten a short head in last season’s Juddmonte International by 3 time gp1 winner Notnowcato.<br>Needs to be held up, as he has only a short burst of speed, but unlikely to find it unless the race is run at a dawdle.<br>Dual gp2 winner at 12f, though possibly better over a fast run 10. Unproven at this level on proper soft ground.
Scorpion 12/1<br>Irish Derby 2nd and heavy ground St Leger winner in 2005, but hasn’t won since. <br>Might redeem himself in these circumstances, but his form of the past 2 seasons suggests not. Could be useful to his stablemate Septimus in ensuring there is no hanging about in the early stages.
Rising Cross 33/1
2nd in last year’s Oaks, and improved on that to just shade gp2 Park HilL Stakes from Anna Pavlova. <br>Has done nothing to suggest she is up to beating the colts, and her Yorkshire Cup outing wouldn’t be the ideal preparation.
Hattan 50/1<br>Obligatory Clive Brittain moke, tilting at windmills to try pick up the place money crumbs.
Despite his impressive Jockey Club win, Sixties Icon still strikes me as a horse who would be better over further, (Still holds Irish St Leger entry).<br>Septimus, likewise, has staying entries, and though possibly the biggest threat, has yet to prove himself at this level.<br>Maraahel and co. should not be good enough in this company, which leaves SIR PERCY as much the likeliest winner.<br>Maligned on here and elsewhere throughout last season, the horse has done absolutely nothing wrong since his first ever race, won a Derby from an unpromising position that was stuffed with subsequent high level winners, and written down as a non-stayer because of it, written off again after the Champion though not showing anythiing like his true form, and finished a close-up 4th to one of the best horses in the world, in circumstances that didn’t play to his strengths, and deemed not fully fit by his stable.
Go get ’em boyo!:biggrin:May 31, 2007 at 07:28 #62792ClintMMember
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A typically small field for the race. And when you look at some of the horses that have one this in the past, this year’s renewal isn’t a great event.
I’m not a great Sixties Icon fan, as I don’t see him as a true Gr1 horse – he might not have to be ,though, to win this Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â year – but he’d still be a lay for me.
(Edited by ClintM at 8:39 am on May 31, 2007)<br>
(Edited by ClintM at 8:41 am on May 31, 2007)May 31, 2007 at 08:08 #62794davidbradyMember
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I think you’re dismissing Scorpion too easily. He was injured for most of last season and of his 3 runs, the first can be put down as a warm up while the other 2 Gr1s came in the Breeders Cup Turf and the Hong Kong Vase. While he didn’t exactly set them alight, he wasn’t disgraced either. I doubt Coolmore would be persevering with him as a 5yo if they didn’t think he had a couple of races in him. The going will suit him (won the St Leger on Hvy) and I think the 12/1 is too big.May 31, 2007 at 10:10 #62797Gareth FlynnParticipant
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I think he won the Leger despite the Going; his best form is on fast ground. Never been the same since Donny and hard to see him coming back to form any time soon.<br>May 31, 2007 at 10:25 #62799
<br>"Needs to be held up"
Not seen R Hills ride him and win from front on it’s last two starts then?May 31, 2007 at 10:27 #62800AragornMember
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It would have to be on O’Brien masterclass in training for Scorpion to win.. He doesn;t look in it to me..
Thinking about how the race will pan out, I think Scorpion may well lead and try set a strong pace, if he does I would be worried about SP seeing out the distance on the forecast soft going.. No worries on that count for Septimus and Sixties Icon who I think are both proper stayers.. I wouldn’t rule Maraahel out either as I believe that he will be suited by the track…
If I had to pick i’d plump for Septimus given the prices as I don’t think there will be much between him and sixties Icon and Murtagh is almost peerless round Epsom without Fallon around (Although Frankie has won this race a few times in the past).May 31, 2007 at 10:29 #62803Money onMember
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I agree, i think the Leger Scorpion won took alot out of him as the ground was very heavy and sticky. He has never really ran up to near him form since. I never seen his as 120 horse and it would be suprising for Aidan to keep him in training if he didnt think he could win a few more races with him. I think he may need further these days and he could be a cup horse like Yeats.May 31, 2007 at 10:31 #62806Money onMember
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Btw i fancy Sir Percy quite strongly tomorrow, he should be favourite imo as he has beaten Sixties Icon around CD in the Derby. No doubt Sixties has improved since the last meeting but i think Sir Percy will have too much pace for him in the last furlong or so.May 31, 2007 at 11:16 #62807
Quote: from Gareth Flynn on 11:10 am on May 31, 2007[br]I think he won the Leger despite the Going; his best form is on fast ground. Never been the same since Donny and hard to see him coming back to form any time soon.
<br>Gareth although i would probably agree
i thought the way he was behaving and sweated before Ormonde Stakes cost him dearly and if he did similar at Churchill and Sha Tin then you could maybe forgive those runs, the Churchill run is forgivable for another reason also, as Kinane tracked the overly strong gallop and Scorpion was running on empty at the business end
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:20 pm on May 31, 2007)May 31, 2007 at 11:27 #62809
Also summat else, nowt concrete, but i’ve a feeling the stress of long flights may take it’s toll on some horses and if there’s not enough recovery time before running, then a below par run can be on the cards
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:29 pm on May 31, 2007)May 31, 2007 at 11:32 #62811Gareth FlynnParticipant
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There’s certainly been reasons/excuses for his runs since coming back from injury, but I worry whether his heart is still in it. I hope I’m wrong!May 31, 2007 at 11:37 #62813
Quote: from Gareth Flynn on 12:32 pm on May 31, 2007[br]There’s certainly been reasons/excuses for his runs since coming back from injury, but I worry whether his heart is still in it. I hope I’m wrong!
He’s interesting here imo and if he gets in stalls without any worries i think i may bob a few quid on himMay 31, 2007 at 11:44 #62815clivexMember
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A basic line through Ask would give Scorpion no chance at all with Sixties Icon. Sixties Icon ran quite nicely at Newmarket but the value of that form will be further tested tonight in the brigadeer gerrard, with Mighty and the disappointing Papal Bull running
i like Sixties icon but was impressed with sir percy’s last run, where he just ran out of steam. It appeared that it was better than the trainer had expected too
I think septimus is a bit of a plodder and despite rain, epsom may be nowhere near as soft as expected tomorrow. after last years derby has to be a doubt about the course too
<br>As we have seen again this season Stoute works miracles with maturing horses but Maraheel is surely not a true group one performer and that style of running may not be iodeal in this race
Sir Percy for me
<br>May 31, 2007 at 12:37 #62817Black Sam BellamyMember
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Is Septimus really 4/1 ??
What has he done to justify being half the price of Maraahel ? or am I reading the form wrong ?May 31, 2007 at 12:38 #62818davidjohnsonMember
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Quote: from clivex on 12:44 pm on May 31, 2007[br]A basic line through Ask would give Scorpion no chance at all with Sixties Icon.
But we know that as a 3yo Scorpion was better than he showed at Chester, so I don’t think it is that simple. That said I think Scorpion looks to be going the wrong way temperamentally and will be unable to reproduce his 3yo form.
I’m surprised Sixties Icon isn’t around 11/10 to be honest. I expect he’ll take all the beating. Septimus may well pose his biggest threat on this ground with Maraahel and Sir Percy a couple of lengths back disputing third.
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