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I walked the Rowley Mile a few times over the last couple of weeks and the difference between a tail wind -as on Sunday – and the Easterly Wind blowing from Ely direction is enormous in my opinion.
The Easterly wind has a particular effect in races of 6 furlongs plus because over the last furlong and a half the grandstand does take some of the sting out of the wind.
It can also be very cold in Newmarket when the Easterly wind blows and this can sometimes have an effect on fillies.
I think Cockney Rebel – who was very colty in preliminaries – is probably a very useful colt and Finsceal Beo is an exceptional filly.
It just seems that nobody – including me! – cottoned on to what a good race the Champagne Stakes (Gr.2) at York was last year viz Vital Equine, Eagle Mountain and Cockney Rebel. Even the 4th horse that day at York, Kirklees, subsequently won the Gran Criterium (Gr.1) in Milan.
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The follow-on argument that CR won’t win another Gr1 IS pointless as he should only have to beat the same slowboats he already beat at Newmarket to do so.
Good point.
I don’t think Cockney Rebel will turn out to be that good, but the mile division looks really weak (again).
Steve
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Personally, I would tend to agree with NM that Cockney Rebel has been over-rated, not least because of the euphoria of the clockers at ‘the 3rd fastest Guineas ever’.<br>Looked at purely on a form basis, he beat an ordinary bunch. <br>Dutch Art apart, none of the first 6 had shown anything like classic pretensions previous to this race; not one gp1 winner amongst them, whereas Finscael Beo had them strung out in all the places closest to her.<br>Superstars don’t come along all that often, particularly 2 in 2 days.<br>Truth is, unless someone can prove differently, the rest of the races on Saturday aren’t certain to have been truly run which would put things in a completely different perspective.<br>Some say the clock doesn’t lie, I’d much rather believe the form book. <br>
My clock and previous form book reading says a par 2000 winner and above average 1000 winner
Quote: from reet hard on 5:39 pm on May 10, 2007[br]Some say the clock doesn’t lie, I’d much rather believe the form book. <br>
For what it’s worth , I gave up using solely collateral formlines a long time ago because it doesn’t take into consideration the way races are run. All too often, using the aforemetioned method, you see horse A beating horse B, and then the two horses reoppose on terms which are more favorable to horse B but B still loses; sometimes by further. If some sort of pace analysis/ sectional timing had been taken into consideration after the first race, one just might have seen that A had a chance of confirming the form. Just perhaps A would have been, armed with a little more knowledge, the choice for the second race.
Just my two cents, and I suppose we all have our own prefered methods of going broke ;)
I gave the two Maudlin books on my shelf to Oxfam after his eccentric dribblings last year. Is he still going? Obviously.
I quite liked the way the Cockney came from last to first without any apparent effort to beat two tough and decent yardsticks. A taking performance. Looking forward to the Curragh and the St James Palace.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw-BJjBjIlg
And how is his tipping line performing? Last I heard he was costing his three remaining subscribers the last couple of units left in their banks.
Although I disagree with Mordin and believe CR will win another Group One, at least the guy doesn’t sit on the fence.<br>Credit him with that at least.
I don’t think anybody can reasonably predict whether or not Cockney Rebel will win another group one until we see what group one’s he lines up in. If he takes on a 100% George Washington on a couple of occasions and gets beaten then retired then Maudin might well have a point. On the other hand if he contests a St James Palace stakes on a par with last years he’ll probably win another group one on his very next start making Maudins comments immediately nonsensical. It’s all relative.
For what its worth I have Cockney Rebel rated as a good Guineas winner. Ok maybe not a Brigadier Gerard or an El Gran Senor but there have been a lot worse. There were a number of horses in that Guineas field with good, solid form. As two year olds mainly, accepted but they mostly ran to a predicatable level and a predicatble mark and in some cases surpassed them.
….the eventual winner Cockney Rebel (39) ended up running a comparatively slow time.
Note that I said ‘comparatively’ because this is the key to making speed ratings. You don’t look at the raw time, which in Cockney Rebel’s case was one of the fastest ever 2000 Guineas. Instead you compare the time of a race with others run at the same meeting. And in this case a comparison with the time of the 1000 Guineas indicates that Cockney Rebel is nothing special at all….
….Yes there was a tailwind, but I estimate it was speeding the horses up by 0.8 seconds a mile in both Guineas.
As TDK notes, it is not so much Mordin’s conclusions that stick in the craw, it is the way he sets about arriving at them.
The 2000 Guineas was "slow" – thanks to Nick for showing that he actually grabs what that concept means, by the way – because in his "estimate" the conditions were identical to the conditions that prevailed the following day. This seems to be the inevitable result of his belief that comparisons are valid "at the same meeting", even when the evidence suggests otherwise.
He does not have the first idea about the interplay between form and time, and he seems to regard his ignorance of all matters to do with form handicapping as some sort of a badge of honour, even though that frequently means that he is quite incapable of putting time performances into any sort of a proper context.
Planet, anyone? ÂÂÂ
This fella will follow Diamond Tycoon of the edge of a cliff if it happened to happen. Why can’t people realise that although he was very impressive in the maiden i very much doubt he will win a group one in this country.
He was able to dominate at Newbury and run quickly without any pressure, but i very much doubt that he can run as quickly when under pressure.
As regards to Cockney Rebel, i don’t think you can knock him really. It wasn’t the best of guineas, agreed, but he did it pretty easy in the end and never looked in any danger after quickening up really well. What is going to beat him in the Irish guineas?? Dutch Art if anything probably preferred being over the other side because he was able to dominate the closing stages over that side.
Adagio ran too bad to be true, but i doubt he will ever beat the winner over a mile.
I think Adagio ran to pretty much the same form as the dewhurst last year. I could never understand how he was favourite. The craven was a poor race to my eyes in which he beat not a lot….
Vital Equine perhaps shot his bolt a bit in the guineas by going so early.. If Catlin had held on a bit longer then he might have finished closer..
Sht
You beat me to it TDK :angry:
That was a rather nice performance. This is one lovely miler
I’m still not convinced he’s anything more than the best of a mediocre lot.
But, as I said before, there doesn’t look to be much else in the 3yo mile division.
(unless Teofilio comes back as a miler … or HRE shoots blanks)
Steve
For a horse that has now raced 5 times, and won two Classics, he still looked a little green to me and won a shade more cosily than the official margins would suggest.
He’s very good.
While I can understand Stevedvg’s view…at the same time what more at this stage of the season can he do…?
He won it well, perhaps not quite so impressively as at Newmarket, but the slow early pace and his hard pulling during the first furlong didn’t help him.
A brace of 2000 Guineas certainly puts paid to his detractors.
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