May 27, 2007 at 19:22 #58309PrufrockParticipant
- Total Posts 2081
More use the less you know of the horses but still very relevant.
The fact that we think we "know" how good a horse is can lead to the worst excesses of "yardstick handicapping".
It was this time last year that a pundit on Racing UK who should know better (and does know better in areas outside handicapping) stated that the Musidora winner had run to something in the 90s "because Maroussies Wings, who is rated 88, was close up in third".
(Edited by Prufrock at 8:28 pm on May 27, 2007)May 28, 2007 at 23:59 #58310
Quote: from Prufrock on 12:43 pm on May 27, 2007[br]
Interesting what you say about the time of yesterday’s race. <br>
<br>I’ve hand timed race off ATR video (iffy i know) and they’ve just come out of stalls, but i get 93 and change, video clock from start to finishing reads 1.34
Anyone clocked race ?
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:01 am on May 29, 2007)May 29, 2007 at 01:55 #58311
(Edited by empty wallet at 3:33 am on May 29, 2007)May 29, 2007 at 11:46 #58312Gareth FlynnParticipant
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I’ve timed it against the Youtube version (ATR’s cuts off too much at the start to be certain about anything):
I got 1:35.57, so the official time (1:36.15) is probably right.<br>May 29, 2007 at 11:55 #58313
Forgot about Youtube Gareth, just wanted to check time and your clocking will suffice m8 – cheersMay 30, 2007 at 22:23 #58314stevedvgMember
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But I can’t go on knocking him after he’s done this. I have to believe he can run faster.
But wait a minute!
There are people on here who say that Mordin "takes a stand on a horse and sticks with it regardless of what happens".
How could he be changing his mind???
(except that he often does e.g. George Washington)
SteveMay 31, 2007 at 07:14 #58315stevedvgMember
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SteveMay 31, 2007 at 11:46 #58316MauriceParticipant
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I have more respect for people who admit to getting it wrong and changing their mind than for people who remain entrenched in an opinion that has been proven to be wrong.
But didn’t it occur to Mordin that if a horse wins a slow race it must have a higher maximum speed than those it beat? Didn’t it occur to him that [on the face of it] well-beaten Yellowstone came out and ran a good second in the Derrinstown? Or that Tobosa came out and thrashed a decent field under top weight in one of the strongest 3yo handicaps of the early part of the season?
Mordin’s problem is that he is a slave of his method and not master of it.May 31, 2007 at 12:04 #58317clivexMember
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hes obsessed with the ratehr daft idea that a slow time must indicate an ordinary horse. Its almost as if he believes that horses race in isolation
Even those who follow time must surely logically conclude that (apart from sprints and true run 2 year old races maybe …maybe) that a "slow time" should result in nothing more than an open mind rather than dismissal?
Its simple logic surely?
Sure. we can all take notice of a fast time ratings but for me thats as far as it should goMay 31, 2007 at 13:05 #58318davidbradyMember
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His thinking is more along the lines of
"a slow time indicates that the horse is not necessarily a "proper" Gr1 horse BUT the fact that he won a Gr1/Classic means that he may well be overbet in his next race and is worth taking on with others who may not have been as well suited to the poor pace LTO"
Not bad thinking in general but Nick’s method of putting his point across is too sensational which is why it looks ridiculous when he is proved wrong.
I have stated before that this may be as a result of having to produce a system every week for the Weekender and this mindet is carried over to his website.
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