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Cockney Rebel is a plater!

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  • #1620
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    What makes me laugh is that he bleats about unworthy winners in slowly run Group ones and then ….

    COCKNEY REBEL WON’T WIN ANOTHER GROUP 1

    I’ve been going racing for many years and can’t recall a time before this season when two horses which dominated the ante-post betting for a Classic were both withdrawn. But that’s what happened this season with the Two Thousand Guineas. Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor both exited the race in extraordinary circumstances. This being so, it’s not surprising the eventual winner Cockney Rebel (39) ended up running a comparatively slow time.

    Note that I said ‘comparatively’ because this is the key to making speed ratings. You don’t look at the raw time, which in Cockney Rebel’s case was one of the fastest ever 2000 Guineas. Instead you compare the time of a race with others run at the same meeting. And in this case a comparison with the time of the 1000 Guineas indicates that Cockney Rebel is nothing special at all.

    I concede they did not water overnight at Newmarket and that the Turftrax going stick gave a slightly higher reading on 1000 Guineas day. But the going was already speeding the horses up by as much as is physically possible on the preceding day for the 2000 Guineas. Assuming that the firmer surface sped the fillies up more would be the same as saying that Olympic athletes would run faster on concrete than on a synthetic track. There’s a cut off point beyond which added firmness in the running surface has no extra effect on the runners’ speed. Yes there was a tailwind, but I estimate it was speeding the horses up by 0.8 seconds a mile in both Guineas.

    There have been seven previous winners of the 2000 Guineas in the last 30 years who clocked a slower time than the winner of the 1000 Guineas. None of the seven winners won another Group 1 race after taking the first colt’s classic. I’m happy to bet that Cockney Rebel is going to make it eight in a row by not scoring at the top level again.

    For me there are two horses to take out of the race – DIAMOND TYCOON (33) and ADAGIO (32).

    Diamond Tycoon did very well for such an inexperienced horse to finish so close. However good they are, horses invariably run below form the first time they face top class rivals. With this run under his belt I’d expect Diamond Tycoon to bounce back to the smart form he showed when running so fast at Newbury. That makes him look an interesting candidate for the St James’ Palace Stakes or perhaps the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    Adagio has the physique, pedigree and running style of a ten furlong horse. He ran as well as could be expected in such a strongly run race over a mile. I still see him as a good candidate for the Eclipse Stakes though, as I’ve mentioned, I just don’t think he’ll quite get the mile and a half of the Derby.

    <br>

    #58236
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I’m not speed figure expert, but surely he’d be better comparing the race with others run on the same card rather than same day, rather than one the following day run on marginally quicker ground with the advantage of a tailwind.

    #58237
    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    I stopped reading after the first paragraph. The author suggests that Saturday’s comparatively slow Guineas’ time – if that is what it was –  was a result of both Teofilo and HRE defection . Truly unbelievable.

    The author needs to understand that finishing times are only a result of what has happened before in any particular race, and that other sectionals are vitally important in understanding finishing times.

    As for CR, I’ll reserve judgement on him until I’ve seen him run again under different circumstances.

    #58238
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    A very smart time indeed, producing a Topspeed rating of 125, which is well up to Group 1 standard.

    Also, the horse was visually quite impressive, quickening up very well at a decisive point in the race.

    If he can reproduce this form, he looks sure to win more races.

    Mordin is entitled to his opinions, but his reasoning isn’t always sound. Only time will tell. I think he may be right about Adagio, but I think the layers will want to get him before they take a chance with Cockney Rebel.

    #58239
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Are unfashionable connections a factor in time ratings? :angry:

    #58240
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    I believe that Timeform went for 124 – likely to be one of their very best timefigures of the entire season – I, as mentioned elsewhere, went for 123.

    Mordin, as so often, is talking rot.

    #58241
    naps
    Member
    • Total Posts 159

    Absolutely Clive. Would love to see what he’d have written if Adagio had been the one flying from last to first in an identical time.

    #58242
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 811

    You are all just jealous, Mordin is on another planet.

    Trouble is for Mordin the Planet is Pluto……..

    #58243
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    The point he makes regarding the last seven colts who won the 2000 Guineas in a slower time than the 1000 Guineas is actually quite interesting.

    #58244
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I don’t think it’s pointless – it means one of 2 things IMO

    1. Cockney Rebel won a relatively poor Guineas and Finsceal Beo is average, or

    2. Finsceal Beo is exceptional filly and Cockney Rebel is average

    I happen to think it’s the first

    The follow-on argument that CR won’t win another Gr1 IS pointless as he should only have to beat the same slowboats he already beat at Newmarket to do so. But it could be interesting come Sussex Stakes day or QEII day when a 3yo colt with 3 Gr1s under his belt takes on the older horses.

    #58245
    CavCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4809

    I have a lot of respect for Mordins OLDER writings

    In this instant he’s completely wrong

    In the 2000 CR had a 2mph TAILWIND<br>In the 1000 FB had a 12 mph TAILWIND

    This is computed from official Met Office data that I have.<br>The wind was MUCH stronger on day 2<br>Given the increased tailwind and no watering on day 2 I’d be talking up CR’s performance not down

    (Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 1:30 pm on May 10, 2007)

    #58249
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Quote: from thedarkknight on 1:33 pm on May 10, 2007[br]Davidbrady – it doesnt mean either of those things.

    Any half respectable speed figure compiler would probably be coming up with similar figures for Finsceal Beo and Cockney Rebel and those figure (Timeform have CR 1lb higher at 124) would suggest that both horses are above average winners of their respective races, with FB "more" above average – as the 1000 Guineas tends to be the weaker race.

    Timeform’s form ratings over the latest 10 years would certainly back up that argument.

    2000 Guineas mean=123.8, Cockney Rebel’s form rating 125

    1000 Guineas mean=117.3, Finsceal Beo’s form rating 123<br>

    #58251
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Cavelino..  Beggers belief that he didnt check that first, given that hes a complete anorak .

    Strikes me too, that often he makes up his mind to diss a horse and then makes the facts fit the theory. Its a bit all or nothing too. Horse is an absolute world beater (detroit city etc) or completely hopeless and should be turned into dogfood (Kauto)

    #58252
    CavCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4809

    Agree completely Clivex especially given  the effect the wind has on times and running styles at Newmarket. Mordin should know that by now.

    #58253
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1981

    Once again subsequent events will prove the great Mordin to have been spot on. And where will his hapless detractors be then? Nowhere to be seen.

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