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Certainty or not ?

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  • #1825
    absolution
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    • Total Posts 214

    Wondered what everybody thinks about Authorized on saturday – is he a certainty or is his price too short – my own opinion is think depends on how much rain falls – i know he ran his best race last year on heavy ground but bad ground can produce strange results sometimes and some of the opposition particularly from Ballydoyle appear unexposed at this level – one thing is for sure will resist the odds on even if he wins by 20 lengths :biggrin:

    #62714
    aidanldrebin
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    Authorized will win because he is the ONLY horse that even looks Group 1 class. This is the poorest the group of 3yo’s there have been for a while. If Teofilo had been here it may have been different.

    He can’t really lose against this lot.

    Mahler e/w!!!

    #62715
    Flash
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    • Total Posts 1144

    Believe me there s no such thing as a certainty in horse racing

    However, yes I do think Authorized will win.

    #62716
    newyork
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    • Total Posts 215

    In what sense are these the poorest group of 3yr olds compared with the last ten yrs.

    #62717
    davidbrady
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    • Total Posts 3901

    There is no such thing as a certainty in racing.

    Personally I think one of APOB’s will win, probably whichever one Murtagh rides – the guy’s a class act at Epsom

    #62718
    Flash
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    • Total Posts 1144

    Quote: from newyork on 8:10 pm on May 29, 2007[br]In what sense are these the poorest group of 3yr olds compared with the last ten yrs.<br>

    <br>The same thing is said every single year without fail. It is far too early to judge the merits of the three year olds particularly the middle distance ones half of whom haven’t even run over a mile and a half yet.

    #62719
    empty walletempty wallet
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    • Total Posts 1631

    Quote: from Flash on 8:20 pm on May 29, 2007[br]

    <br>The same thing is said every single year without fail. It is far too early to judge the merits of the three year olds particularly the middle distance ones half of whom haven’t even run over a mile and a half yet.

    <br>Totally agree Flash and it’s not until they take on their elders we find out if they are really any good imo

    (Edited by empty wallet at 8:24 pm on May 29, 2007)

    #62720
    Sailing Shoes
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    • Total Posts 368

    Quote: from Flash on 8:20 pm on May 29, 2007[br]

    The same thing is said every single year without fail. It is far too early to judge the merits of the three year olds particularly the middle distance ones half of whom haven’t even run over a mile and a half yet. <br>

    Totally agree.

    #62721
    Money on
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    • Total Posts 178

    Quote: from aidanldrebin on 7:49 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Authorized will win because he is the ONLY horse that even looks Group 1 class. This is the poorest the group of 3yo’s there have been for a while. If Teofilo had been here it may have been different.

    He can’t really lose against this lot.

    Mahler e/w!!!<br>

    Nonsense imo, Eagle Mountain finished a head to Teofilo who went on to win 2 Group 1s last season. He then beat a dual guineas winner the next day at York and wasnt giving the best ride. He then went off 8/11 for a Gr1 the RP Trophy. I would make that pretty much Group 1 form and i still cant believe the price of him for saturday giving his connections.

    #62722
    Flash
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    • Total Posts 1144

    Quote: from Money on on 9:17 pm on May 29, 2007[br]

    Quote: from aidanldrebin on 7:49 pm on May 29, 2007[br]Authorized will win because he is the ONLY horse that even looks Group 1 class. This is the poorest the group of 3yo’s there have been for a while. If Teofilo had been here it may have been different.

    He can’t really lose against this lot.

    Mahler e/w!!!<br>

    Nonsense imo, Eagle Mountain finished a head to Teofilo who went on to win 2 Group 1s last season. He then beat a dual guineas winner the next day at York and wasnt giving the best ride. He then went off 8/11 for a Gr1 the RP Trophy. I would make that pretty much Group 1 form and i still cant believe the price of him for saturday giving his connections.

    <br>Agreed. There’s not been much talk about Eagle Mountain but he has top form at much shorter trips than his breeding suggests should be his ideal. If he gets the trip and there’s a fair chance he will he should run a big race.

    #62723
    Money on
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    • Total Posts 178

    I actually think he will stay Flash but he may be better over 10 furlongs and if he runs in the French Derby then he would go mighty close. He surely has to be stable number 1 if he runs instead of Archipenko who i think will struggle to be placed in his stablemates race.

    #62724
    Aragorn
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    I think there’s plenty of head scratching going on ay Ballydoyle. Macarthur and/or Mount Nelson were probably their intended Epsom horses, however as one either has a problem (or just isn’t that good) and the other is injured they’re probably on to their 3rd string.. I believe O’Brien would have wanted to run Eagle Mountain on the french derby and the campaign him over 10f. He has a similar profile to Oratorio in that respect..

    I saw Archipenko win his maiden last year and he hacked up.. At the time I thought he could turn out to be a good un and not much has changed my opinion since.. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Dylan Thomas won the derrinstown last year and somehow went off 25/1.. (Agreeing with David, if Mr Murtagh is on then he’d be their best bet in my opinion.

    #62725
    Aragorn
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    • Total Posts 2208

    Kinane rides Archipenko, Murtagh is on Eagle Mountain.. They’ve declared all eight!!!

    #62726
    newyork
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    • Total Posts 215

    i just hope the race doesnt turn into a circus and there is no funny business

    #62727
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
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    • Total Posts 2432

    I don’t think there’ll be any funny business. Authorized is by a Coolmore stallion and as a breeding operation, they’ll be pleased as punch to see him win.

    But the question. Is Authorized a certainty?

    The Dante win impressed almost everyone and this colt is potentially high class. A good looking colt and a good mover, he would be a worthy winner of this great race.

    He’s the type of horse everyone loves; a stylish, easy moving bridle horse who scythes through a field like a knife through butter.

    It’s difficult not to like him and it’s hard not to root for his jockey’s quest to win his Derby. But theres the evidence against to consider.

    He’s about to be ridden in the Blue Riband by an injured jockey on a losing streak, who has never won the race. There’s a nagging worry about his potential stamina limitations doing the rounds. There’s the history lesson which tells us that odds-on favourites winning the Derby are as rare as hens teeth. And of course, in this Noah’s Ark summer, soft ground equals surprise results, (even though the favourite’s best performance came on a swamp-like surface).

    Additionally, his best form line was severely put under pressure at Sandown last night, which, curiously, everyone blames on Brian Meehan’s horses being out of form. This isn’t strictly true – that trainer has had seven winners and numerous places this month.  It may be that Charlie Farnsbarn is just not that good – like the majority of the Dante field eclipsed by Saturday’s hot favourite.

    Then you notice that Authorized is facing a well backed second favourite who has already finished in front of him, at Newbury last Autumn. The trainer of Aqaleem won last years Derby and knows exactly what it takes to do so. Backers will know his horse will be cherry ripe on the day. The yard get more bullish by the hour and this is not one which hypes their horses. Personally, I missed the boat on this one, but I believe it to be a serious threat to the perceived invincibility of the favourite.

    Chapple Hyam’s colt is also up against eight of the best bred middle distance colts in Ireland, any of whom, (particularly Yellowstone), could improve for the step up in trip and Aiden O Brien isn’t coming over here mob handed just to show off his top hat.

    No. Authorized is no certainty all in all.  Lots of excitable bookie hype in the ether. I’d like to see him win – and win ten lengths! It would be great for the sport, for Dettori, for the Breeders Cup, and for the rest of the Summer. But surely, for the serious punter, there are better odds-on shots to be had.

    Apologies for the long post; been thinking about this question all day.

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