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HRI – Declaration for Lock’s Corner (Jj O’Neill) for Leop will be accepted tomorrow. HRI is satisfied that the horse had arrived in Ireland in advance of our announcement on the travel of Irish and UK-trained horses between now and Dec 31 and has been attended by Irish-based staff only
Buzz for me. Nicky doesn’t aim many at the Welsh Champion Hurdle and that was throwing Buzz in the proverbial deep end IMO. Ran a blinder to finish 3rd and what I really like is how he picked up again having made a pretty back mistake at the last. That tells me he wasn’t empty and he won as easy as you like at Ascot last time out – I think 9/2 is fair.
I’d agree with all of that FF91 – my question to Ham was more out of curiosity than anything else as it’s quite a hard market to price up.
More words might require more time, but that generally (not always) means more detail, which means more informed decision making, which equals a more informative ante-post discussion. You call it nonsense, I call it quantifying statements with context. Anyway, let’s just agree to disagree and move on. There are better races to argue over than the Ryanair, surely.
Ham – I agree to an extent, always weary reading too much into market moves, but some significant must be placed on it IMO, given the cut, when it happened and the fact it happened off the back of no published news whatsoever. It wasn’t like she went from 12’s to 10’s then steadied. She went from 12 to 10, then halved in price again. It might mean nothing, but I’m glad I got 10’s.
Mike – didn’t Real Steel’s Gold Cup run torpedo reservations about him going left handed? He travelled sweetly into the Gold Cup before not fully seeing out the trip (turning in he looked to be travelling the best). That was a really good run wasn’t it? (the three horses chasing him home were all rated 170+). I really like his chances for this, he has festival experience and is a decent EW price @ 20/1 IMO.
Re DDS, obviously disappointed at the Festival, but DDS has been poor a few times on seasonal reappearance (lost 26L to Lalor on seasonal debut and 17L to Lil Rockerfeller on debut), so I worry about his run LTO less – even more so after not having been right at the festival. This is important context when weighing up his health and wellbeing off his seasonal reappearance run, and I just think he’s a horse that just needs his first run. 22/1 is a big price for this IMO. At his last 3 festivals he’s gone off 2/5F, 3/1F & 5/2F. He’s a five time grade 1 winner, 2/3 at the festival, has Cheltenham form figures that read 111152114PU and will only be 8 years old next year (for some reason I think of him as older)
I can see why some will oppose as he doesn’t have a clearly defined target and a certain amount has to be taken on faith, so I completely understand why some wont bother, but this is an ante post conversation talking about ante post prices. We must try and find value, and value is often found exploring angles, going into detail, analysing trends, looking past poor seasonal reappearances etc.
It’s hard to knock your statement Mike because DDS has been ‘disappointing of late’. Whilst technically accurate, you’ve provided no context, detail or reasoning which fails IMO to add any meaningful value to an ante post discussion. Hopefully, my post has.
PS. I want people to tear down horses I fancy, oppose them with reason, make me think about things I have necessarily thought of – you obviously didn’t do that, but take your shot! You may help me change my mind and I’m not too stubborn to do so!!
Re BDD Mike – Does ‘she had a little setback so won’t be appearing until the second half of the season’ sound serious? (without wanting to go round in circles as to how we interpret trainer quotes). It’s not uncommon for her to start later in the new year anyway.
Of course, any setback doesn’t evoke confidence, but I tell you what does – 2.30pm last Monday she was very well supported for this. Cut from 12 into 8, then steadily down into 5/1 over the course of the next few days. IMO a move like that gives a fairly strong indication that she is fit, well and most importantly, fancied by some who think she’ll win the race. Were you aware of the market move over the last week before posting?
I agree that PTKO would be a threat, but I don’t think she will end up here. Two reasons, firstly, connections had the balls to go for the Arkle last year and were rewarded with victory, so I struggle to see why they’d give up QMCC dreams with a horse that’s 3/3 at Cheltenham. Secondly, the division looks winnable. Chacun Pour Glass needs to get there (which is anyones guess at the stage), who knows when we’ll next see Altior, and I doubt they’d run from a fight with Politilogue over 2m to entertain one with BDD over 2m4f.
Real Steel @ 20/1 EW
DDS @ 22/1 EWFor me these two bets are infinitely better than Imperial Aura @ 6/1.
Real Steel looked like he needed the run to me. Were he to re-oppose Imperial Aura I am confident he could get a lot closer and perhaps win, do the price differential isn’t right there.
DDS and IA are both 7 going on 8. The formers achievements eclipse that of the latter, so at over 4 times the price, he represents the value.
I’d back IA were he a double figure price, I just think he’s too short based on what he’s actually achieved.
Chantry House entered over 3m1f at Cheltenham on Friday and is a sea of blue on oddschecker for this. Happy I covered, put it that way
Tbf I think finding horses the other side of channel will prove the most profitable strategy for the next 10 years of this race
I completely agree HDLTG. She wont be scaring away whatever WPM has, but that 7lbs is massive.
What did HDB see this weekend that would make him even remotely entertain the notion of a Champion Hurdle for Honeysuckle? For me that well and truly died a death this weekend, and I see no reason after publicly stating they chose her optimum trip for Cheltenham last year, that they would change their minds this year, even more so based on what we’ve just seen. She still jumps high (probably because they’ve schooled over fences) and Epatante would out jump her and beat her. The mares is there for the taking and that’s where she will go IMO.
I wouldn’t be rushing to take 13/2 but its certainly not criminal. Ted Walsh is always saying stuff like this – the other day in the RP he said Flyingbolt would ‘have eaten Arkle’
Yep FF91, music to my ears. No hesitation, no pause, Ballyadam comes here. I’ve covered for the Ballymore just in case, but its excellent news for my book
