[charlie87]

Tizzard on TBB

Tizzard also had news of the exciting The Big Breakaway, who is already being spoken of as a Gold Cup horse of the future and will run at Exeter next Friday.

Tizzard said: “He’s going back in trip [2m3f] at Exeter before the the Kauto Star or the Dipper – most likely the former.

“We want to get another run into him as we don’t want to get to March lacking experience and now is the time to do it. Next year he’ll be in the big league, whatever happens, so we want to make sure he’s got the experience.”

[charlie87]

Tizzard’s on Copperhead

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/tizzards-full-of-hope-copperhead-can-execute-long-term-plan-in-ladbrokes-trophy/460740

[charlie87]

I agree Mike – Hendo was pretty adamant his trip would only go in one direction and that’s up.

For the Marsh I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little disappointed, as I hoped he would be quicker and slicker at his fences, but then it was a chase debut and I shouldn’t expect too much too soon. Perfectly reasonable to expect him to improve for the run on soft ground.

[charlie87]

Yeh I’ve talked myself into it – 40/1 too big – they could easily elect to swerve EA and with no stand out JP RSA horse it could be him. At 20 I wouldn’t bother but 40 is my kinda price

[charlie87]

I hope Chantry House wins today but think the market has this one right – 40/1 for this, 14/1 for the Marsh.

Appreciate plans can change and JP doesn’t appear to have a stand out RSA horse yet, but Hendo was pretty adament intermediate trips would be his bag this season.

Who knows. I’ll give it some thought this morning. Could run scared of EA I suppose and 40’s does seem big. Hmm, have I done a u-turn mid post and talked myself into it

[charlie87]

Copperhead @ 10/1 (got 10.8 boosted with Hills)

Gone through the race and he’s my idea of the winner and I don’t think he’ll go off anyway near 10/1. I’m not too concerned about Wetherby as his seasonal reappearance runs in 17/18/19 and now 20 have all been absolutely appalling.

For me he ticks loads of boxes:

10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8 (he’s 6)
9/12 winners ran within the last 57 days (last raced 31 Oct so just makes it)
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury (he’s won over 3m2f at Newbury)
10/12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further (he’s 3 from 4 over 3m+)
11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs (he’s run 5 times over fences)
9/12 winners were rated 148 or higher (he’s rated 152)
8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race (he won the G2 Reynoldstown very well)
9/12 winners had at least 1 run that season (he’s had a run, if you can call it that)

[charlie87]

Fair enough CR, all entitled to our opinions regardless of bet size, stake, frequency etc – but in the interest of sensible discussion comments like ‘I wouldn’t back Altior @ 150/1’ will always spark debate in the company of people genuinely interested in building an ante post book.

[charlie87]

Absolutely FF91. He is a big raw thing isn’t he. He looked like he was learning on the job yesterday, but I’m not too worried about the big jumps as the pace was quite sedate – as soon as there was some pace injected into the race (and he was asked to actually race) he was lower and faster, which bodes well.

That jump after he completely switched off down the back straight was a marvellous jump (12th) and even though he jumped the 13th (water jump) huge, he gets from A to B quickly, and Robbie’s comments re dropping him back to 2m5f to ‘sharpen him up’ look spot on to me – get him in a race with more tempo, a stronger gallop, and teach him to jump fences under those conditions, and think a bit more.

I’d say 8/10 for a debut run, 6/10 as a prospect for this.

[charlie87]

You wouldn’t back any horse ante post at this stage? Why are you here then? It’s November, so all conversations are ante post related.

Why don’t you expect him to make the festival? Did Hendo saying ‘I’ve never seen him move better’ the other day put you off? (admittedly take what he says with a pinch of salt at the best of times).

150/1

Moscow Flyer was the better of the two, but it’s doing Altior a disservice IMO to say they can’t be mentioned in the same breath.

[charlie87]

It’s obvious I’m talking about the two of them at this point of their respective careers Mike, ie. as 5 year old novice chasers, so your comment in hindsight seems fairly pointless to me.

[charlie87]

That is a ridiculous comment IMO Captain Robbo. Every horse has their price and if 80/1 doesn’t tempt you on Altior then I feel the concept of ‘value’ is well and truly passing you by.

Is Altior getting any younger, no. Will the years invariably catch up with him, yes. Is he the force of old? We don’t know yet. Was what ruled him out last season serious? No.

Here’s what we do know, and hence why I strongly disagree with your statement:

a) 11 year olds have won this before (even a 12 year old)
b) Altior missed Cheltenham because he was lame, so nothing too serious
c) He’s 4/4 at Cheltenham
d) He’s gone off 4/1, 1/4, evens, 4/11, and you wouldn’t take 80/1 now
e) The division doesn’t look strong at all
f) Hendo is 5/9 in this race specifically, no man better to get him back.

For all I know he could get pulled up in the Tingle Creek and we never see him again, but then you look at his record at Cheltenham and what he’s achieved, and he is in the bracket of Moscow Flyer who won this aged 11. He’s that good – and if you take horses with their profiles (of which there will be very few) and ran the race 80 times, would you win more than once? Of course you bloody would, hence why I think your chatting complete nonsense.

Nice wind up though, it clearly worked.

[charlie87]

I can’t see it TakeYourTime – I think he has more natural class and speed than Native River.

That being said, the Tizzard’s have been known to campaign some of theirs terribly, so nothing would surprise me (Lostintranslation being a prime example – obviously should have been in the RSA that year he went JLT)

Not really too sure why a chief market rival pinging fences on debut over RSA C&D could make you feel more confident about a horse we haven’t seen yet

[charlie87]

To be a serious contender here The Big Breakaway will need to step into competitive company and do the business before I start getting excited about 25/1, but I was happy with today. He won with tons in hand and I don’t think TBS would have ever got to him given how hard he hit the line. Robbie corrected him when he went to sleep mid-race and the response was immediate, which I really like. He pinged his fences for fun, was accurate (although a little high), and looked to thoroughly handle the undulations of Cheltenham (which may have been a question mark post Ballymore). I think a stronger pace over 3m will suit him down to the ground and see him jump lower and faster. Hopefully he’ll come on for the run and be pitched in deeper waters soon so we can see what he’s really about, but good start.

[charlie87]

Harambe @ 21 & Tudor City @ 95

[charlie87]

Added Simply The Betts @ 8.8 – all this rain here will massively play to his chances

Slate House my biggest winner – the plan is to back him in play when he drifts to around 20’s which is highly likely IMO. Backed at 10’s as well

[charlie87]

Slate House is a superb in play bet IMO. Often races out the back, gets a bit lazy, Robbie often forced to push him along quite early – all this means he can trade at very juicy in play prices quite early. He made loads of mistakes last year and still came there swinging. I have little doubt if he’d stayed on his feet he would have won. Deeper race this year, but I think he’s in with a shout and il wait till he hits 16/18 in running and then have a go (backed in a single @ 10/1)

[charlie87]

Very happy with where I am at this stage of the season. Fewer bets than normal, but some decent prices about horses that are not a lot shorter

Any Race

My Whirlwind @ 22/1
Early Doors @ 27/1

Day One

Supreme
Ballyadam @ 22/1
*Ballyadam @ 87/1
Ngolo @ 42’s

Arkle
Fusil Raffles @ 27/1
Unexcepted @ 22/1

Champion Hurdle
Saint Roi @ 22/1
Saldier @ 25/1, 22/1
*Saldier @ 87/1
Concertista @ 27/1
Aspire Tower @ 27/1

Mares Hurdle
*Honeysuckle @ 18/1

NHC
Galvin @ 22/1, 20/1
Mossy Fen @ 36/1

Day Two

QMCC
Le Richebourg @ 36/1
*Altior @ 16/1

RSA
Dickie Diver @ 95/1 & 66/1 EW
The Big Breakaway @ 33/1 EW
Next Destination @ 33/1
The Big Getaway @ 20/1
*The Big Getaway (RSA) @ 70/1

Mares Chase
Dame De Compagnie @ 22/1

Day Three

Stayers Hurdle
*McFabulous @ 50/1
Emitom @ 25/1

Mares Novice
*Shewearsitwell @ 29/1

Ryanair
Itchy Feet @ 40/1 EW, 36/1
*Allaho @ 45/1

Day Four

Gold Cup
*Lostintranslation @ 45/1
Al Boum Photo @ 7/1

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