The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2020

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Paddy Power Gold Cup 2020

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 65 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1505857
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445

    Market up……

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/gold-cup/winner

    Not in a mad rush to have an early bet in this, but if I did it would be Galvin. Followed him since I seen his debut, and he’s went the right way. I think he’s weighted to win this, but I’m not convinced he’ll go here. Massive player if he went, and he’d be my #1 right now, but probably be a risky Antepost.

    On his run in The Marsh, Midnight Shadow would have to be given a chance. Acts round here, on a nice mark, and this looks a realistic target.

    I’d also like to see an entry for last seasons runner up Brelan D’As, but his absence since is a worry. His stablemate Saint Sonnet heads the betting, but I’d expect loads in here from the yard, so hard to second guess who’ll actually go. I was hoping for better jumping from Master Tommytucker yesterday, but it was still a concern, so although I’d consider him too, not convinced the hustle and bustle of this will suit.

    I’m surprised that Spiritofthegames isn’t in the betting, so possible that he’s had a setback. If all well, he’s sureky in the mix for this.

    The one I think is interesting though is Ben Dundee. I like his profile for this, and now with Mullins, I’m very interested in him this season. I’m never that keen on betting Irish raiders for this, but if he happened to get an entry, I’d maybe play early.

    Hard to put up a shortlist with no entries, but if I had too……

    Ben Dundee
    Galvin
    Midnight Shadow

    #1505866
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    Al Dancer’s jumping wasn’t fabulous to start yesterday but he warmed to it and finished out well. I wonder what sort of rise he will get. Has ok chase form at the track. I’m sulking that he beat MTT (or rather that MTT beat himself) thus rendering my KG bet less cool. Kind of have to support Al Dancer now given he beat my fancy, such is my twisted logic. A form of indirect cliff horsery.

    Also maybe Mister Fisher, depending on ground. I think he could cope with a handicap alright- he doesn’t seem a precious type- and also got course form.

    #1505867
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445

    Same boat for me Grass, wanted to see a lot more from Tommytucker yesterday.

    #1505868
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    He started quite well though jumping a bit less flamboyantly than usual which I thought wasn’t a bad thing; but for the first half he was meeting all the fences on a perfect stride. The first time he couldn’t see a stride he was clueless. I’d need to watch it again but from memory he had no idea how to shorten stride coming in, run down the fence, cat leap off a very short one or try any other coping strategy at all. He just seemed taken aback that the fence hadn’t magically appeared the right distance away and clobbered it. Then he did it again.

    I think that’s a very bad sign. Last year I thought his falls were due to overconfidence and slight inattention which doesn’t bother me too much. The gormlessness in a tight spot yesterday bothered me a lot. I don’t think a horse can learn its way out of that, most athletic quick minded horses can try to make something up on the spot no matter how green they are, even if it doesn’t work.

    #1505870
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2696

    Harry derham sounded quite sweet about saint sonnet for this

    Just from his tone of voice you can tell they think he’s got a few lbs in hand off his mark

    #1505876
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2689

    Saint Sonnet 12-1 is my early pick in this. Might be a Nicholls plot job. The other one i like is Midnight Shadow he is more battle hardened and currently on a good mark i think, he runs in the Old Roan Chase first though so not sure he comes here after. I’ll ignore the big Irish Stables for now as they rarely come over.

    #1505888
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3014

    Mike, for all most can only get pennies on with skybet, if you go to their request a bets sections + look you will see they have 20-1 offered. It is win only, but 20-1 is worth a dabble compared to 12-1.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1506875
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445

    Sorry Grass, completely missed your post. Good assessment, which is a concern in itself.

    Funnily enough, I still like him at 33’s, but how risky is he?

    I was discussing Reserve Tank the other night, and can’t believe he’s still on 146. If I see him with an entry elsewhere in the lead up, I’d maybe take a chance with him.

    Taken Galvin off the shortlist, can’t see this being an option. I still like Midnight Shadow, but a lot will depend on Sunday.

    Shortlist
    Ben Dundee
    Master Tommytucker 33’s
    Midnight Shadow 20’s
    Reserve Tank 20’s

    #1506915
    TakeYourTime
    Participant
    • Total Posts 126

    I know the Nicholls stable are well known to be sweet on their horses for the big races but i do think Saint Sonnet has potential to be much better than his current mark. I’ve backed him as low as 8s and also gone for a double with Edwardstone in the Greatwood Hurdle.

    #1507315
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445

    After that run today, Midnight Shadow goes right back to the head of the shortlist. Hopefully down a couple of pounds, and I’m expecting him to improve with that run under his belt.

    #1507323
    Yogi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 47

    SIMPLY THE BETTS for me at this early stage. Clearly a progressive chaser of the ilk as stablemate ROUGE VIF. It was touted that VIF would require the run but simply blew apart his opposition. Another 3 weeks to get SIMPLY THE BETTS more straight forward than Whittington’s easy winner at Cheltenham on Friday.

    A festival winner who beat the game HAPPY DIVA who loves it around Cheltenham and she always gives her running (winner last year).

    Last season SIMPLY THE BETTS ran 5 times and got beat only once into second around Kempton. I was really impressed with its running that day as Kempton didn’t suit and showed real guts to run on, all the other runs were around left-handed tracks including Cheltenham twice and on the first occasion beat fellow festival winner IMPERIAL AURA.

    My final case for him is that he has won first time out every season he has raced.
    Hopefully he turns up here and 14/1 first 4 is fantastic value.

    SIMPLY THE BETTS 14/1 ew

    #1507365
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 574

    I love this race, so I’ve already bet two.

    Secret Investor 16-1 + Saint Sonnet 10-1. I’m hoping that the yard are still firing in the winners by the time this comes round.

    #1507586
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445
    #1507597
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16445

    Shortlist of four for me at the moment

    Brelan D’As 20’s
    Midnight Shadow 25’s
    Master Tommytucker 33’s
    Belami Des Pictons 33’s

    I really should leave this alone just now, but Midnight Shadow is still my #1, and if he goes, that’s too big, while the price for Belami is nuts.

    Midnight Shadow 25’s
    Belami Des Pictons 33’s

    #1508234
    Yogi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 47

    Pleased with IMPERIAL AURA today, just hope SIMPLY THE BETTS (who beat that last season) rolls up in this before stepping up in grade later in the season.

    Has been nibbled now and pleased with my 14’s and I could see it being fav on the day?

    SIMPLY THE BETTS 14/1 EW

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 65 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.