November 18, 2020 at 22:06 #1511302Ex RubyLightParticipant
- Total Posts 1627
I’m on Copperhead myself (at 16s) and really like his chances, especially with the Tizzard stable starting to hit proper form. BUT, how many of the past 15 winners or so have failed to complete in their last two starts prior to the race?
Once again, I’m quite happy about his profile and even more about the current stable form, but I still don’t know what to think about his last two starts?November 19, 2020 at 00:33 #1511310
Tizzard horses were running at only a 3% strike rate at the time of Copperhead’s first run of the season. They are currently at 20% so running better now.November 21, 2020 at 18:49 #1511633YogiParticipant
- Total Posts 39
Nov 5th post
“Hi Mike, correct. Based on value (in my eyes), I couldn’t understand why the prices were so far apart based on the RSA form between COPPERHEAD and AYE RIGHT. This is not the case now though after that run against NUTS WELL ( distance too short) and CYRNAME (top rated chaser on figures).
Purely on value at that early stage I just thought it was a crazy price at 40’s!
COPPERHEAD is a smashing horse but the thing that was niggling me was his run a Cheltenham, as he looked absolutely shattered when coming down. Reminding me of fellow Tizzard horses who started out very well then their form seemed to dip for a year or so then came right back to form – SLATE HOUSE was one of these horses that springs to mind, year before last he promised but was poor but right back to form the following year (last season). RESERVE TANK year before last was a talking horse but failed to deliver last season and he may bounce back this season?
I do like COPPERHEAD and may well prove me wrong but I can’t have him until he shows some form again.
Good luck to everyone who has done COPPERHEAD though….”
It really pains me to say about LOSTINTRANSLATION today, hopefully this is not another horse that has lost its way for a season? I really hope not….
I really hope I’m wrong with COPPERHEAD but until he shows some form again I can’t have him for this.
If he runs well the Welsh maybe an option?November 22, 2020 at 10:17 #1511680MarkTTParticipant
- Total Posts 2767
It’s going to be pretty dry for most of the week, with a little rain passing through around Wednesday, so it should be decent Good to Soft for Saturday.
With that in mind, i’ll have a bit on Mr Malarkey; his second season over fences was one of inconsistency but he still managed to finish 6th in this last year and is till only 7, with an excellent Newbury record under his saddle
Black Op wont stay.
The Conditional is possibly weight to his peak now
Aye Right is very good on flat, left handed tracks and the jockey booking will be interesting
Copperhead, Vinndication and Sam Brown could all run well, as could Two For Gold – there’ll be plenty of pace on.
So i like the look of something at bigger odds that will be ridden prominently, although i’ll probably have a win bet on one of those favs on the day.November 22, 2020 at 12:21 #1511705greenasgrassParticipant
- Total Posts 3439
I’m thinking along the same lines with the weather for Malarky. He jumped pretty well at Ascot and looked happier than he did 8n the same race last year.
If it happened to heave down and go really soft then Sam Brown, although he is a bit short so would probably add Lamanver Pippin instead.November 23, 2020 at 14:39 #1511993Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 17093
Looking to add another one here, and agree with the Mister Malarky comments. Weather forecast probably in his favour too, so I’ll have a few quid just now.
I’ll be three handed if Regal Encore goes, for all that the forecast wouldn’t favour him as much, but he’ll never be an Antepost horse for me anyway.
Beware The Bear 33’s
Mister Malarky 25’s
Both EW 5 PlacesNovember 23, 2020 at 17:13 #1512007TakeYourTimeParticipant
- Total Posts 78
I’ve cashed out my Sam Brown bet. Forecast suggests the ground will be too quick for him and given he’s fairly inexperienced in big fields, cashing out for a full refund suits me.
Vinndication’s schooling left a lot to be desired last week but i think 8s is fair as he’s better off with Kildidart (my second choice for this) and The Conditional on their Cheltenham running and had a nice prep.
Most of the field would prefer softer going than what is forecast which complicates things.November 25, 2020 at 00:46 #1512108Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 17093
Big fan of the horse TYT, but that looks wise move right now.
Maybe one for something like The Peter Marsh, when he’s bound to get his ground.November 25, 2020 at 10:03 #1512122
Not liking Copperhead no more on the drying ground, they may head to Welsh National next, dunno. And Kim Bailey hasn’t committed Two For Gold so no point hanging on to that bet. So just Aye Right 25-1 left.November 25, 2020 at 10:24 #1512124
Haha Kim Bailey said he would decide Thursday about Two For Gold running. Now Kim Bailey announces on a Wednesday he is running.November 25, 2020 at 13:28 #1512134peter .hParticipant
- Total Posts 1277
I hope this doesn’t cut up like a couple seasons ago. That was a sorry sight.
I’m going to stand firm with Copperhead for now. I don’t get this idea that he needs soft ground. He’s done enough on good, good to soft for me to be happy with conditions however they turn out.
La Bague Au Roi wasn’t disgraced last time out either and I might have a go at a price. I’ll see if she drifts on the morning of.November 25, 2020 at 13:42 #1512136
The good, good to soft wins were off a slow pace peter h. And recently Joe Tizzard has been quoted as saying “He’s a big, long-striding horse who gallops all day and seems to tick a lot of boxes for a Welsh National horse”.
He may cope with conditions, but personally I think he needs more juice.November 25, 2020 at 16:14 #1512146FinalFurlong91Participant
- Total Posts 2366
“Most of the field would prefer softer going than what is forecast which complicates things.”
This is why I cashed out my copperhead bet and added kildisart plus beware the bear a few days back
Can see a fair few coming out and waiting for softer groundNovember 25, 2020 at 21:42 #1512161charlie87Participant
November 26, 2020 at 03:06 #1512167BigGParticipant
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- Total Posts 7728
I think that Potterman must have a tremendous shout here.
He’s not been out the 1st 2 in his last 4 and I thought he ran a great
race last time out in the Badger Beer only going down a shd to El Presente.
He’s finished strong in all his last few races and I think the extra furlong
is to his advantage and he’s due to go up 5lbs.
Potterman 16/1 various
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