- This topic has 156 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by
.
- Posts
Put The Kettle On is 3 from 3 at Cheltenham. Great value right now.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Even at 80/1 I wouldn’t be touching Altior. I would want to see 20/1 that he is still in training next March never mind winning the champion chase.
That is a ridiculous comment IMO Captain Robbo. Every horse has their price and if 80/1 doesn’t tempt you on Altior then I feel the concept of ‘value’ is well and truly passing you by.
Is Altior getting any younger, no. Will the years invariably catch up with him, yes. Is he the force of old? We don’t know yet. Was what ruled him out last season serious? No.
Here’s what we do know, and hence why I strongly disagree with your statement:
a) 11 year olds have won this before (even a 12 year old)
b) Altior missed Cheltenham because he was lame, so nothing too serious
c) He’s 4/4 at Cheltenham
d) He’s gone off 4/1, 1/4, evens, 4/11, and you wouldn’t take 80/1 now
e) The division doesn’t look strong at all
f) Hendo is 5/9 in this race specifically, no man better to get him back.For all I know he could get pulled up in the Tingle Creek and we never see him again, but then you look at his record at Cheltenham and what he’s achieved, and he is in the bracket of Moscow Flyer who won this aged 11. He’s that good – and if you take horses with their profiles (of which there will be very few) and ran the race 80 times, would you win more than once? Of course you bloody would, hence why I think your chatting complete nonsense.
Nice wind up though, it clearly worked.
I wouldn’t back any horse antepost at this stage, certainly not a horse who I don’t expect to make the festival. 100/1 still wouldn’t waste my money same as 150/1.
Altior cannot be mentioned in the same breath as Moscow Flyer, now that was a proper horse. He used to beat quality like Well Chief, Azertyioup and the list goes on of the proper horses he used to beat.
Altior as good as he was never really beat much in his career. The only time he really ran against a top horse he got beat easily. Over rated even at his peak and dominated due to total lack of strength in depth of his rivals. His time has passed and he has been deteriorating for quite a long time already.
I think it odd that someone who doesn’t bet ante post, comments on a thread about a race 5 months in the future? However, it would probably have been a wise idea to explain your 80/1 comment with the important fact that you don’t bet AP as it helps to understand your point of view.
I suspect you’re alone on not accepting 80/1 odds on Altior winning the champion chase but that doesn’t make your opinion wrong.
Except your wrong, obviously
You wouldn’t back any horse ante post at this stage? Why are you here then? It’s November, so all conversations are ante post related.
Why don’t you expect him to make the festival? Did Hendo saying ‘I’ve never seen him move better’ the other day put you off? (admittedly take what he says with a pinch of salt at the best of times).
150/1
Moscow Flyer was the better of the two, but it’s doing Altior a disservice IMO to say they can’t be mentioned in the same breath.
Just because I don’t tend to bet Antepost anymore (certainly not this far out at least) does not mean I can’t discuss future races and share my thoughts. Anybody can discuss any race they want there is nothing in the forum rules that says only those who bet can discuss. I think Man City will win the premier league but won’t be betting on that either, though would still be entitled to share my opinion in the relevant section should I choose to do so.
If he doesn’t turn up then my opinion was correct, if he does turn up then 80/1 would look pretty nice even though I still don’t think he would win.
Fair enough CR, all entitled to our opinions regardless of bet size, stake, frequency etc – but in the interest of sensible discussion comments like ‘I wouldn’t back Altior @ 150/1’ will always spark debate in the company of people genuinely interested in building an ante post book.
I threw a few quid the way of Annamix, but there’s enough reasons to think he won’t be going…..
Question mark over left hand tracks
Good enough?
Starting off over 2 and a half
Connections have Chacun, and a sub, Min
Didn’t go to festival last year….but in what is almost a perennially weak race, I thought he was worth a few quid, with the understanding I’m wasting my time.
Annamix 75’s
Yeah G, perhaps not the right wording.
More perennially weak division, which is open to something left field coming through, given the lack of depth. That’s more what I was meaning………not that it’s likely to be Annamix sadly, nor should I add an approach that’s ever paid its way for me too often. Last years race was the exception, and it worked out well. No doubt normal service resumed this year.
I don’t know if any excuses were offered up for Notebook in The Arkle, but I was disappointed anyway. I’m hoping he can bounce back to form this weekend, and develop into a potential ew horse here. I’ve taken 33/1 ew
The thought of getting involved in this race this early again is off putting after sitting on 50/1 for CPS last season only for it to be foiled on the day of the race! (Never laid off)
That aside, altior is very capable of winning this, but hes not capable of beating CPS anymore (never said he wouldnt in his prime, settle down)
Ill just wait until the day of, but surely the idea of playing altior early given his problems
Of late is dangerous, especially at under double figures (for what its worth i think 10/1 right now would be a fair(ish) price not that youll get that until he loses the TC)I agree bobby its a weak division bar two of them, politologue at 20/1 again is a fair e/w bet atm (still not getting involved) id say theres a fairly high chance 1 of the top 2 wont make it.
Melon another id consider e/w at 25/1. he saves it for cheltenham so likely to get double that when he runs under par through the winter, so ill hold off until then
For all on the face of it being weak outside the front two, its certainly interesting and it “should” be a decent field this time with altiors invincibility cloak firmly removed. Then again i suspect if kept sound CPS will look bombproof come then for me.
See you in march guys.
We’ll do well to match that 50’s again Ham (good to see you back mate) with something like Chacun Pour Sois.
Yeah looks weaker than ever this year, even by this divisions standards, but no harm in looking is there. Happy to see Annamix win yesterday, but it was still short of what’s required here. Agree with Melon and Politologue, both very big prices there.
I’m a big fan of notebook
Don’t fancy him for this after getting 25s for the arkle and him being so poor on the day
But he is clearly a much better horse than fakir which makes the put the kettle on/fakir form line look very dubious to me
Don’t think its anywhere near good enough to beat chacun or altior
Added Notebook 20-1 for now. Will take on CPS at Xmas then likely go straight to Cheltenham. De Bromhead’s explanation for the Arkle poor show was a hard race in the Irish Arkle as Cash Back also flopped in the Arkle after the Irish Arkle. So may be given a break after Xmas this time.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.