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VTC – Sempo is still available @ 33/1 with Betstars (betting arm of PokerStars)
Account with them is a must as they are atrocious at updating market movers
Pricewise tipped Zanza up last week which is why the price has plummeted from 33/1 into single figures. Can’t stand the man, but every word he said re this horse is spot on. I take the view he’s 8-10lbs well in with a lovely profile for the race. On at a much bigger price that Segal which is satisfying, and I think he’ll take a hell of a lot of beating, and certainly wouldn’t put anyone off 9s or 10’s.
I didn’t say it was just NRNB market, I gave three reasons – the 3rd fav confirmed not going and 2nd fav a doubt is easily enough to see a price collapse, why wouldn’t it, they are RP’s main dangers and without them the race looks a gimme, hence massive shortening.
The collapse in price is really obvious. The ‘move’ happened after most firms went NRNB, after Paul Nolan said 3rd fav Latest Exhibition definitely wont go, and after 2nd fav Galvin’s participation was potentially thrown into the balance. One of those things would be highly likely to see risk free support for the current fav, let alone all three which happened in the space of less than two days! That’s almost certainly why the price collapsed.
Why does the sport put up with this nonsense
Yeh, what a load of complete nonsense from connections, leaving options open for a ground dependent novice. It’s a joke isn’t it. They should decide a target now and completely ignore going conditions on the day – I am sure that wont have an impact on race outcome. The most important thing is to set aside what’s in RP’s long term interest so that punters can be given a clear picture on what the top of the market will look like, that’s the priority.
HDB hasn’t ruled this out for Bob Olinger and he’s 12/1 NRNB. For me that’s a ludicrous NRNB price and well worth taking to cover Ballymore positions IMO, especially now 4 between him and AI were scratched yesterday
FYI Jamie Hendo said Allart was sore post fall and not sure if he’ll make Cheltenham, so defo take NRNB
There is doubt over French Aseel being declared, if he is I think the market will correct itself in line with current ante post prices.
FYI Botchy
“A Plus Tard was very impressive. It was obviously a step into the unknown, but it has opened up so many more options and one is clearly the Gold Cup,” said Chris Richardson, managing director of owners Cheveley Park Stud.
“He likes to run left-handed and he likes to run fresh and we’re very fortunate to have a selection of special horses.
“He was eyecatching in that performance. It was a bit of a punt to see if he stayed, but occasionally you have got to roll the dice and it worked out a treat. He’s very exciting and a serious star in his own right.
“I don’t think he’ll run at the Dublin Racing Festival, I think he’ll go straight to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, as he runs so well fresh. So I think we’ll just go there.
NAP: Envoi @ EVS
LAY: Zanahyir @ 11/4
EW: Longhouse Poet @ 33/1 NHCThat EW one was tricky, tons of lovely EW prices to be had at the moment, especially in behind the big three short novice chasers
Ramses De Teillee for me @ 12/1 EW. I fancied him over Christmas but was worried the race would come too soon after Aintree, so personally delighted at an extra 2 weeks. On paper that Aintree run looks like a shocker because he’s 7th and beaten 94L, but it really wasn’t. He didn’t take to the fences at all and it was a run littered with mistake after mistake. Despite this, he kept delivering himself back into the race, travelled eye catchingly strongly, the mistakes just caught up with him. He looked to me like a horse in rude health that day, and I thought he had an experience advantage over some of the market principles here. He’s run very well in this race before, will love the heavy conditions and the Pipe yard are in form with a 30% strike rate over the last 14 days. He doesn’t leap off the page as a brilliant bet, it’s more of a gentle building of ticks in the plus column. I think he’ll really enjoy being back at Chepstow over their obstacles vs Aintree. I’d like to see Tom Scudamore ride him up with the pace (if there is any) because making up ground at Chepstow on heavy will be challenging but yeh, 5 places 12/1 EW RDT feels solid enough to me.
Santini is stuck in no mans land IMO. If they go off quick he’ll be under pressure early, exert too much energy, will stay on well but his mid race exertions will cost him real strength in the finish. If they go off an even pace or slower, he’ll lie up with them no problem but when the screw is turned he just wont have the gears. Sounds mad saying that about a horse who with another 100 yards would have probably won the Gold Cup, but I think everything went right that day and I can’t see him going as close this year.
Sharjah, yuck! 🙁
Hopefully Saldier comes out the race well and takes him place in march
Thank you Mike.
I’m laughing to myself here as before I could even get down to Saldier he said re Concertista ‘She’s probably our number one here’
Yeh he doesn’t sound remotely confident on Saldier. Perversely that makes me even more confident
Do you have a link to what Willie said Mike?
I could only find what PM said which was fairly open – “Saldier is obviously coming back from a long lay-off, but we’ve got plenty of work into him. He still falls into the ‘could be anything’ category, so I wouldn’t discount him in any way, shape or form”
Regardless of what’s said, I’d se surprised if Sharjah beats Saldier, and I’d be even more surprised if Saldier goes of at double figures on the exchanges
