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Welsh National 2020

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  • #1511318
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Entries out…..

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/12/chepstow/2020-12-27/770662

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/welsh-grand-national/winner

    Best entry I can remember for some time in this.

    Not a race to go mad in too early, with races like The Ladbroke Trophy, and The Becher to come first, but plenty to chew over.

    Usual string entry from Nicholls, and Danny Whizzbang would be my early preference of his.

    Copperhead looks perfect for this, but we’ll know more after Newbury. Abysmal reappearance at Wetherby, but he has to be better than that, and he’s been in my radar for this for a while. I’m still confident he can figure here. Native Rivers win here in 2016 was some performance, but it would be a monumental effort to land this off 168. The yard could also have Lamanver Pippin here, and though not likely to be their number one, perhaps not a forlorn hope on the evidence at the weekend.

    Market is led by recent Cheltenham winner, Ramses De Teille. I just like this horse. A real grower, and I think he could land a few big staying pots over the next few years. Lots to like about his attitude on Sunday, and although I’d love to see him in The Becher, it’s very hard to be pessimistic about him here. Be interesting to see what mark he gets after Sunday, but whatever it is, I can’t see it putting me off, as I can see him pushing 160 over next year or so.

    It would be easy to pigeon hole his stablemate Vieux Lion Rouge as an Aintree horse, and his priorities surely lie there in just over a fortnight, but off of 140, I could see a repeat of his Chepstow win last year. He was out of sorts in this two years ago, and followed up with a dismal effort at Haydock the following month, so happy to forgive that. I’d rather focus on that win here last season, and I thought he shaped well enough last time. Very interesting, and could get potentially overlooked.

    There’s the usual Trevor Hemmings runners in there. Although Deise Aba faded a bit tamely in The Kim Muir, I’m fairly confident he’s got some progression in him, and I’ll be watching him closely at Haydock this weekend should he run. The Venetia Williams trained Cloudy Glen could be popular after his Southern National win, but a lot could hinge on how the handicapper reacts.

    Any Venetia Williams trained runner is worthy of respect in this, and though there would be question marks over the trip for Didero Valis, he lurks on a nice mark, and has some promising runs to his name. He’s another who’s due out, in his case, Ascot Friday.

    Regal Encore is continually underrated, and he’ll always be on my radar as long as that’s the case, but I’d only be interested in him on the day, as I don’t think this would be his priority. Smashing horse. His stablemate Sam Brown ticks a lot of boxes here as well, and providing he doesn’t land The Ladbroke Trophy, which isn’t out of the question, then he’d be of big interest here, with conditions likely to suit. I’ve liked him from day one.

    Reigning champ Potters Corner, a very likeable type, could figure again, but Aintree might be his priority, and I’d be equally interested in stablemate Kitty’s Light, who caught the eye in The Badger Ales.

    Some interesting contenders from Ireland, and At The Acorn, a proper notebook horse of mine, would be my pick, but he’ll surely be at Leopardstown same day, all being well.

    Last but not least is Seeyouatmidnight. He’s been some horse for connections, and after being brought back into training after retirement, his disappointing comeback was forgotten, when he won well at Carlisle. There was a lot to like about that run, and though nearly a teenager, he looks to have a lot of ability left. Trainer is incredibly underrated, and has a good record in marathons, including with horses of Midnights vintage. He’s reported to have the Veterans at Sandown as his target, but even though it could be my heart ruling my head, off of 140 here, I can’t believe that 40’s. I’ll have to have a few quid at those odds.

    I’ll bet Midnight for sure, he picks himself at those odds, but he’s not the only one on the early shortlist….

    Copperhead 16’s
    Ramses De Teille 16’s
    Seeyouatmidnight 40’s
    Vieux Lion Rouge 33’s

    #1511334
    Autumnal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 341

    I think that Moyhenna is a massive price at 33/1, and I think that she would love it round there.

    I couldn’t bet her just now though as The Paddy Power Chase might me be the more obvious race for her then.

    #1511394
    Red Rum 77
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1682

    My knowledge of Ante Post racing is poor apart from Grand National in April, however looking at the Pie Chart in oddschecker I see sizeable bets on PRIME VENTURE , DEISE ABA and NEWTIDE at decent odds so doing these Each Way.

    #1512479
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Now’s the time to take my old pal Seeyouatmidnight.

    I’ll definitely bet Vieux Lion Rouge if he doesn’t win next week.

    Seeyouatmidnight 40’s

    #1512484
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 738

    Safe to say VTC that the yards in form

    #1512524
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Definitely HDLG

    #1512578
    Yogi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 47

    DOMINATEUR at 25\1 for me is my main fancy.

    Was there at my local track last year and this won the novice 3 mile and only got going there at the last and straight away I thought Welsh National next year. 2 wins a second and a third at Chepstow, will love the ground and if Native River runs it will get in as the bottom weight and will only carry will carry 9:13 for a young horse with potential.

    NEWTIDE 25/1 ew from Bailey’s yard also interests me at this early stage (schooled with VINDICATION at Newbury) and he was running well until he came down. NEWTIDE blew the cobwebs away at Haydock off top weight and was clearly looked after in 3rd.

    DOMINATEUR 25/1 ew
    NEWTIDE 25/1 ew

    #1512615
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2551

    Cloudy Glen 16-1 ew 5 places is my early pick for this.

    #1512763
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 738

    Vtc have u backed Seeyouatmidnight in the veteran race tomorrow , I think he,s a fair price

    #1512787
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17198

    Yeah, 5’s looked wrong, was happy to take that.

    #1512789
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 738

    Played him to , interesting to see how NTD gets on with Whisper , owners still not given up on him

    #1513232
    Bobby Bluebell
    Participant
    • Total Posts 218

    Secret Reprieve was impressive today, now favourite for this.

    I wonder will they let Native River run?

    #1513259
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3629

    Native River jumped well today. I think I’d have a go at the Cotswold rather than the Welsh National with him. Himself, Santini, Frodon and Bristol would make a good Cotswold.

    #1513392
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2551

    Switched to Secret Reprieve 10-1 ew 5 places.

    #1513400
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 574

    I thought that The Hollow Ginge ran a very encouraging race at Newbury + I think that he’s too big a price on that performance.

    He’s my first bet at 40-1 ew

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