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I’d hold off on CH bets until Altior has at least one more run over fences. Suspect he might just have a switch of target.
MTOY, I’m afraid continues to be overrated, probably because of the way he travels, and his good looks. He’s never quite had the heart for a fight.
As for Yanworth, they reportedly move him up in trip. I thought he showed signs of attitude problems on Saturday: definitely was not putting it all in at the finish in my view.
I thought what he did last season was completely underrated. To finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle after 2 years off was very impressive. Yes, has been found wanting on 3 occasions at Cheltenham, but has always hit the frame and 50/1 about a horse who has finished 2nd in this race twice is decent. Yes, he will be 10, and the run at Haydock was poor, but that was desperate ground. The positive you can take from that race is he looked the calmest he has ever looked. He didn’t race too keenly, which has often been his undoing, and I think (providing it is decent ground) 50/1 is a blinding EW bet.
Thistlecrack’s progress over the season could be very exciting but on the whole I think people are getting carried away.
Theatre Guide @ 50/1 EW
50/1 is massive for a horse that was 3rd in this race in 2014, 2nd in 2015. Fell at Cheltenham and then finished 8th in the Gold Cup Chase at Sandown where 3m 4f was not the right trip – he jumped the third last in front and then just ran out of steam which is fair enough.
He had a great season leas year and I think the market has completely overreacted to a disappointing fall at Cheltenham and an end of season run over too long a trip.
His seasonal reappearance stats read 2013 – 1st, 2014 – 1st & 2015 – 3rd – so we know he goes well fresh & he handles all ground.
Colin Tizzard has had a great start to the season and I think 50/1 is a terrific each way bet if he makes it
Great first post Autumnal – i love Yorkhill, absolutely love him. 12/1 Champion Hurdle – get on!
Horse racing is 90% interpretation so forever wait for something or somebody to offer you confirmation and you’ll spend your life betting at SP.
I’m confident WPM thinks Vautour won’t stay and while he’s taking out between 12 & 16% of the books that will give me an edge.
If I’m wrong come March then so be it.
Nice intro from Thistlecrack there btw.
I am not having a pop, I am simply making the distinction that you being confident Vautour won’t stay is a million miles from Willie actually saying he won’t stay. For all I know, you could be right.
Yes, very nice from Thistlecrack
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
Willie wouldn’t say tomorrow is Wednesday but it’s clear from numerous podcasts etc. (though admittedly Patrick does talk shite sometimes) and his campaigning of him late last season.
Here’s Willie’s most recent comment “I’m going to see how he races in his first few starts before making longer-term plans. He’s in every picture with regard to potential targets”.
The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of NH racing and one that Willie would dearly love to win. If he didn’t have severe doubts do you not think his end of season target would be crystal clear ?
So in short, he didn’t say he wouldn’t stay.
We all know Willie is notorious in keeping his cards close to his chest, so I am not sure why you think his end of season target would be crystal clear? Willie and RR are right to be cautious over what they say after the whole Ryanair/Gold Cup fiasco, plus Vautour could go numerous routes so it’s in their interest to say very little.
Interpret that how your want, but trying to draw answers/conclusions from what Willie has said is hard enough – I think to say Willie has ‘severe doubts’ at this stage of the season based on the information available, is a fairly big stretch.
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
I can understand why bookies don’t want to take a chance, but I would be hesitant (at this stage) backing Thistlecrack at 6/1 when opponents (question marks or not) could include 2 previous GC winners, twice runner up in Djackadam, no doubt at least one Mullins superstar (Vautour/Douvan/Vroum Vroum), RSA winner in Blaklion and a number of other second season chasers.
I’m no expert or good judge but can Thistlecrack be seriously considered a gold cup favourite even before he has ever jumped a fence in public??
I can’t have him as favourite, irrespective or not of what he has beat over hurdles. Look at the chasers he has waiting in store to take him on in the gold cup.
Don Cossack, Vautour (possibly) , Douvan (possibly) Cue Card, Djakadam, Coneygree let alone the second season chasers coming through….how can he possibly be half the price of some of these? Half the price in some places of the two previous winners??….madness. Even if we wins 3 or 4 novice chases in good style leading up to the gold cup, can he be considered favourite over the horses just mentioned? Not for me. He could be anything I agree, but anything but a gold cup favourite right now.The reason he’s so short is you can add another “(possibly)” to both Don Cossack and Coneygree given they’re both returning from injury. Djakadam has been exposed numerous times as being good but no world beater and Cue Card will be 12 years old. The second season chasers look average at the moment as Blaklion, Native River and co. are admirable sorts but have a very large hill to climb to be considered genuine Gold Cup contenders – much as I’d like them to.
It doesn’t necessarily make it right but I can see why Thistlecrack is the price he is, especially when you consider the fact that Tizzard horses invariably improve for a fence.
At this stage I wouldn’t want to be a backer but I wouldn’t want to be laying him either.
Cue card will be 11. Don’t forget Vautour
Wouldn’t personally back Thistlecrack for this if he was double the price….was a weak division he dominated last year and the recent record of staying hurdlers going chasing speaks for itself…
I know he’s ground dependant and been off a while but for me Coneygree is still very much the one to beat…cannot wait for his comeback…KG and GC ante post going on before he does come back!
I agree Zamorston. Generally speaking, I think people are getting a little carried away with Thistlecrack. I am very excited to see him over fences and 6/1 might look massive for the GC if he takes to them well, but as you have pointed out, the staying hurdles division was weak and Killultagh Vic proved Thistelcrack is far from bomb-proof.
I am really looking forward to seeing Coneygree back.
Ar Mad is also on my radar – seriously like this horse. So impressive last season – battled hard to beat Vaniteux, posted a time faster than the Tingle Creek and beat JLT second Bristol De Mai by 10 lengths whilst jumping like an absolute beast. Moore said he had two in his yard better than SDG and Ar Mad has to be one of them. His left-handed run at Plumpton (which was basically a schooling session) went well and he clearly goes left handed, he runs on any ground and I think this season he will go on to do some great things.
Any news on Footpad…?
I was thinking exactly this yesterday. I really like Footpad, a lot. He showed a decent turn of foot in the Triumph to go from last to 3rd from 2 out.
Will be backing Yorkhill over hurdles. Looking more and more likely to stay over hurdles and think 16/1 is a big price. Was watching some of the 2016 previews back earlier and I forgot just how bullish most were on Yorkhill, and that was against the supposedly bomb-proof Yanworth. Seriously like this horse.
Why is he more likely to stay over hurdles ? Mullins has two champion hurdlers in his yard already and Yorkhill is bred to jump fences. Paddy thinks he’s the second coming.
If he were mine, he’d be going JLT then a crack at the Gold Cup.
The interview with PM the other day sounded like hurdling was more likely, which is what I based my comments on.
Will be backing Yorkhill over hurdles. Looking more and more likely to stay over hurdles and think 16/1 is a big price. Was watching some of the 2016 previews back earlier and I forgot just how bullish most were on Yorkhill, and that was against the supposedly bomb-proof Yanworth. Seriously like this horse.
The more I look at this the more tempted I am to start getting involved on some of the bigger prices.
Thistlecrack – never jumped a fence in public
Vautour – is a beast and has my money already on him at 10’s
Don Cossack – injury concerns
Cue Card – age concerns
Coneygree – coming back off an injury and wants soft ground
Douvan – will go CC
Djakadam – twice come up short. Good EW bet 16s (PP)
Valseur Lido – this this at 25’sThe two that interest me at 33’s are Blaklion and Don Poli
Blaklion is as tough as nails and has such good course form – trainer knows how to win GC and can see 33’s shortening significantly with a solid run in the Hennessy.
Don Poli was given a poor ride by Davy and I am a huge fan of his. New trainer, blinkers and a more prominent ride and 33’s is big
JENKINS 25/1
Put him up for this race in my jumps thread at DLAP thread last month and think when he see hurdle for first time he improve even more.Think he is smart horse
Was listening to a RP jump season preview earlier (on Youtube) and they were saying that the horse on everyones lips in the Henderson yeard is Jenkins.
I am totally shocked that with the news Annie Power is going down the champion hurdle route, Faugheen starting off at 2 and a half miles and Limini going for the mares hurdle, that none of the bookies have altered their odds.
Took 4/1 on Annie Power and 7/1 Limini with Hills last night for an opening day double and added Faugheen in a treble at 4/1 for the world hurdle.
If these are indeed their targets then I think Hills certainly have missed a beat there….Why are you shocked? RR has a soft spot for AP who was as impressive, if not more impressive, than Faugheen the year before. I was of the opinion they were always going to let her defend her crown and have her wrapped up in loads of anti post multiples at 4/1. Love it
