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Well he came back from an injury that kept him off for 671 days and went on to win a Gold Cup, so don’t see any reason why he can’t do again….especially this time as we know how good a chaser he is…
Don’t see how he needs to find 10lbs to beat Thistlecrack over fences either? One is a Gold Cup winner…proven at the top level…the other has skipped round and won a novice chase at his own leisure…id say it’s Thistlecrack who needs to find lbs not Coneygree…
One thing people don’t mention about Coneygree’s gold cup win that shows he’s easily got another 10lb or so in hand are 1) For a horse who wanted to lead he was caught flat footed at the start and arguably lost 4 or 5 lengths and had to be rousted for quite a way to get to the front….and 2) He had a jockey on in NDB who was far from the finished article as a jockey…I’d say he’s easily a 5lb better jockey currently than he was then…
What price he should or not should be for the gold cup really doesn’t interest me as I’m terrible at pricing up races anyway.
For me the difference between this horse and Coneygree (and I don’t like either horse for the gold cup btw) is that Coneygree was always an efficent jumper, you never really felt he was going to make a mistake
With thistlecrack on the other hand, he strikes me as a more typical novice. Yesterday at one of the fences in the home straight he took off way early, that’s fine in these sort of races where you have little to beat, but such a risky, novicey style of jumping could see him go horribly wrong in a race like the king george and gold cup where he will be racing against seasoned chasers and they’ll be going a much quicker pace.
Hello,
New to the forum, but I was have been silently reading here for the past 12 months. Decided that it was about time to register! I don’t know whether it is appropriate to open a new topic for just a single race, so I’m just gonna use this topic.
I was curious about your opinions for tomorrow race at Uttoxeter (3.45), a very strong beginners chase. Top Notch (11/8), Charbel(11/4), Le Prezien (11/4), Solstice Star(11/1), Kayf Blanco(20/1) and Vendor(25/1).
I have really enjoyed Solstice Star superb progressive season last winter and I’m curious whether he can continue this. Of course there the competition here is very strong. I’m thinking of Solstice Star to be placed or a win by Le Prezien.
I was curious about your opinions for tomorrow race at Uttoxeter (3.45), a very strong beginners chase. Top Notch (11/8), Charbel(11/4), Le Prezien (11/4), Solstice Star(11/1), Kayf Blanco(20/1) and Vendor(25/1).
No idea mate, for sure it’ll be a good race to watch and a result to note down, but from a betting point of view you’re barking up the wrong tree if you’re wanting to make a long term profit in my opinion.
I was curious about your opinions for tomorrow race at Uttoxeter (3.45), a very strong beginners chase. Top Notch (11/8), Charbel(11/4), Le Prezien (11/4), Solstice Star(11/1), Kayf Blanco(20/1) and Vendor(25/1).
No idea mate, for sure it’ll be a good race to watch and a result to note down, but from a betting point of view you’re barking up the wrong tree if you’re wanting to make a long term profit in my opinion.
No real betting interest for me. Only wager a few euro occasionally, for the fun. Just thought this could be a very interesting race with some horses who could end up in the Arkle in March. I would like to see the fairy tale of Solstice Star to continue, but that will be hard (as the odds suggest).
Thistlecrack’s progress over the season could be very exciting but on the whole I think people are getting carried away.
Just to put one thing straight:
Considering his winning time and therefore his average speed at Chepstow, Thistlecrack was 44.7 km/h fast. When he won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham (over just about the same trip, but in a different discipline) he fast 50.4 km/h fast. That is a huge difference of course, but it also shows you that at Chepstow he was faster than 44.7 km/h BETWEEN the obstacles, but a bit (or even a bit more) slower when approaching and jumping them. That’s why he had all the time in the world to set himself straight at some of them and that’s why people think he was so clever at his fences.
In my opinion, you can easily find some twenty 3-mile chasers who could have done that as well. BUT, it’s just his class and the potential improvement he could have in him, that bookmakers have him installed at 5/1.On the other hand, if the bookmakers would push him out to 10/1, people would accept that he is a 10/1 shot. If they would cut him down to 2/1, people would also think that is okay, simply because bookmakers can do that whenever they want to. (see also that Johnny Levins JOKE gamble).
Just to put one thing straight:
Considering his winning time and therefore his average speed at Chepstow, Thistlecrack was 44.7 km/h fast. When he won the World Hurdle at Cheltenham (over just about the same trip, but in a different discipline) he fast 50.4 km/h fast. That is a huge difference of course, but it also shows you that at Chepstow he was faster than 44.7 km/h BETWEEN the obstacles, but a bit (or even a bit more) slower when approaching and jumping them. That’s why he had all the time in the world to set himself straight at some of them and that’s why people think he was so clever at some of them.
In my opinion, you can easily find some twenty 3-mile chasers who could have done that as well. BUT, it’s just his class and the potential improvement he could have in him, that bookmakers have him installed at 5/1.On the other hand, if the bookmakers would push him out to 10/1, people would accept that he is a 10/1 shot. If they would cut him down to 2/1, people would also think that is okay, simply because bookmakers can do that whenever they want to. (see also that Johnny Levins JOKE gamble).
Overall time on Saturday wasn’t great because of the pace.
Think you’re missing the point Ruby. Thistlecrack’s chance/price is not about the quality/rating performance of Chepstow – imo he’ll need to improve two stone from that debut to win a Gold Cup and I agree, am sure there are twenty 3m chasers capable of that form.
It’s the fact most top class hurdlers are not as good over fences because their technique is not as good over fences. However, Thistlecrack’s technique appeared flawless – a natural chaser. Therefore, if continuing to jump as well… and considering the amazing ability from his hurdles performances… He’s got a tremendous chance of making in to a top class staying chaser.
…Added to that there are difficulties with all the other top class horses to the fore of Gold Cup betting. Cue Card will be 11 years old and yet to prove he stays 3m2f110y, Vautour won’t stay, Coneygree and Don Cossack are coming back from injury.
More I look at it the more I like Thistlecrack, taken 11/2 along with 16/1 Djakadam.
Value Is EverythingOn the other hand, if the bookmakers would push him out to 10/1, people would accept that he is a 10/1 shot. If they would cut him down to 2/1, people would also think that is okay, simply because bookmakers can do that whenever they want to. (see also that Johnny Levins JOKE gamble).
Please give ne some 10/1 Ruby?
Please, please, please, please.
Value Is EverythingThistlecrack was 10/1 for the Gold Cup for a long time
after the Festival had finished, what were you waiting for gingeGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
On the other hand, if the bookmakers would push him out to 10/1, people would accept that he is a 10/1 shot. If they would cut him down to 2/1, people would also think that is okay, simply because bookmakers can do that whenever they want to. (see also that Johnny Levins JOKE gamble).
Please give ne some 10/1 Ruby?
Please, please, please, please.I can’t cause I’m not laying anything else and my book would be pretty much one-sided. But in general I think that bookies can influence a lot of punters by creating false favs. Only SOMETIMES though. Right now I would prefer Djakadam at 16/1 than Thistlecrack at 5/1.
Thistlecrack was 10/1 for the Gold Cup for a long time
after the Festival had finished, what were you waiting for gingeWaiting for the first run Nathan.
Had Thistlecrack jumped poorly at Chepstow he’d probably have returned to hurdles – and anyone’s 10/1 bet lost. ie From everything we knew at the time of that 10/1 Thistlecrack being available, I would not say he had a better than 9% (10/1) chance of winning.
I think everyone would agree that being able to jump well (or rather – knowing a horse in all probability jumps fences well) improves a horse’s chance, let alone taking in to account could easily change Cheltenham target if failing to jump well. In my opinion with all we NOW know about Thistlecrack – after a faultless round of jumping fences – his percentage chance is now far greater.
Added to that… After last season’s Gold Cup, Don Cossack was AOK and at that time had a brilliant/favourite’s chance of retaining his crown. It would’ve been unlikely Thistlecrack would be good enough after just one year to beat an in form Don Cossack. DC’s injury has therefore increased Thistlecrack’s chance.
imo Thistlecrack now has a better than 15% (11/2) chance.
Value Is EverythingThen you should be going BIG Ginge I’m talking 1000points all in, think Rooster Booster
Then you should be going BIG Ginge I’m talking 1000points all in, think Rooster Booster
:lol:
I don’t rate Thistlecrack exceptional value like I did Rooster, Ben, just good value and therefore worth a bet.
tbh I believe Djakadam better value and if I was doing one horse each way it would be Djakadam, but value-wise even he isn’t in Rooster Booster’s level.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I know you prefer to see evidence of certain things before betting, and that’s fair enough. But wouldn’t you factor in some assumptions while the 10/1 was on offer? For example:
Conformation – looks a ready-made chaser
Schooling: – they’d do a lot with him at home and would have a very good idea of how well he handles fences
Options: – Remaining over hurdles would almost guarantee him earnings of £300k +. You might argue they’d have tried him and reverted if things went wrong over fences, but there would have been a big risk attached – injury or damaged confidence
Last season – he was set for a chasing campaign then but for his initial success at Newbury, so he must have been pretty far forward in his schooling and fairly convincing in his jumping ability.
The above assumptions, to my mind, substantially mitigated the risk involved in taking 10/1
Yes Joe, I did consider all those things and came to a decision 10/1 was not worth taking at that time. There was a fairly good chance of jumping well; but many horses jump well at home and then don’t do so well on course. Can’t remember if that 10/1 was available after Don Cossack’s injury. My opinion of Thistlecrack’s chance would’ve also been influenced by how highly I rate Don’s form. I now think it unlikely Don will return to that form even if making it to Cheltenham next March.
Value Is Everything
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