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If you want some fun for a fiver he’s 66 to win the million – JCR Triple Crown.
Blaklion is 100
YOU CHOOSE!!! :)
And why not? One season ending injury next season after a Novice campaign this time means he will becoming to the twilight of his career in the 2018/19 season, even though he is lightly raced. May as well go for the top races now whilst in the form of his life.
Have to say the way he jumped and travelled it will take a good one to beat him in the Gold Cup. Looked something special today. We should enjoy what could be the Frankel of jump racing. A superstar
I think Tizzard wants that Cheltenham run under his belt so he can go there with confidence in March
Which horse has won what after winning a particular race, I don’t think comes into play with this animal. I see other comparisons of how big a failure staying hurdlers in general have been when switched to fences. Then there are those who say Stayers – even World Hurdle winners – are the poor relations in championship terms.
In general, all of the above might be true. But with Thistlecrack, in general, imo, does not apply.
This is a horse who has not been off the bridle in his last five races, three of those Grade 1s. Last time he was ridden at the finish was to beat Deputy Dan 6 lengths almost a year ago on his seasonal debut. Nobody has a clue where the bottom of him lies and that’s why all the normal rules don’t apply.
Here’s Timeform’s take on today:
Took a positive and foot-perfect first step on the path to the Gold Cup, a plan that need only be described as ambitious if his jumping didn’t look up to the job, such is his prodigious ability over hurdles (Timeform rated 174p), brilliant winner of the World Hurdle in an unbeaten 2015/16 campaign, and the early prognosis from the jumping test here was very good; things were kept simple as he made all, given some extra rein to extend only twice, firstly on the run to the home straight to jump at greater speed once his eye was in, and then from the last to complete an easy job, but all the scrutiny was on his fencing, and the impressive part wasn’t just the unblemished round but the array of technique he showcased along the way, nimble and agile when getting close to 5 out, jumping out of Scudamore’s hands 4 out, running down 2 out when needing to put himself right, then fast and accurate at the last; it will reportedly be another novice, at Cheltenham in November, up next for him, but to say he already looks a natural over fences is an understatement, and we know from his hurdling engine, fine-tuned over last season, that there’ll be little or nothing to outrun him in staying chases, even in a Gold Cup.
I think Tizzard wants that Cheltenham run under his belt so he can go there with confidence in March
Which horse has won what after winning a particular race, I don’t think comes into play with this animal. I see other comparisons of how big a failure staying hurdlers in general have been when switched to fences. Then there are those who say Stayers – even World Hurdle winners – are the poor relations in championship terms.
In general, all of the above might be true. But with Thistlecrack, in general, imo, does not apply.
This is a horse who has not been off the bridle in his last five races, three of those Grade 1s. Last time he was ridden at the finish was to beat Deputy Dan 6 lengths almost a year ago on his seasonal debut. Nobody has a clue where the bottom of him lies and that’s why all the normal rules don’t apply.
Here’s Timeform’s take on today:
…..and we know from his hurdling engine, fine-tuned over last season, that there’ll be little or nothing to outrun him in staying chases, even in a Gold Cup.
There are still a lot of unknown things about the GC in March:
1. What if the ground is fast/good? Will he run or not?
2. Then, before I get worried about who might take him on up the hill, I’d like to know how he’ll jump the downhill fences on both circuits while running at a typical very fast Festival pace.
3. And after jumping 22 fences and running a bit over 3 miles, who guarantees you that the final two and a half furlongs don’t find him out?Well, you can’t have the answer to those three questions and still get 5/1!
Can’t see stamina being an issue: his performances are backed up by his breeding. We shall see.
Whatever happens, it’s made for a fascinating start to another NH season, one which marks, for me, my fiftieth anniversary of anticipating what the winter game might bring. And I relish it more with each passing year.
Well, you can’t have the answer to those three questions and still get 5/1!
Can’t see stamina being an issue: his performances are backed up by his breeding. We shall see.
Whatever happens, it’s made for a fascinating start to another NH season, one which marks, for me, my fiftieth anniversary of anticipating what the winter game might bring. And I relish it more with each passing year.
And Joe, sorry for calling you Steve… Or was it the other way round?
There are still a lot of unknown things about the GC in March:
1. What if the ground is fast/good? Will he run or not?
2. Then, before I get worried about who might take him on up the hill, I’d like to know how he’ll jump the downhill fences on both circuits while running at a typical very fast Festival pace.
3. And after jumping 22 fences and running a bit over 3 miles, who guarantees you that the final two and a half furlongs don’t find him out?…Which is why Thistlecrack is not odds-on, Ruby.
Punters only need to think (with all the unknowns) the horse has a better than 16.7% chance to bet @ 5/1.Although tbh, 3m2f110y over fences shouldn’t be any problem for a horse that stays 3m so well over hurdles.
Value Is EverythingI think a 16.5% chance sounds far more realistic than just a 5/1 shot, although both mean just the same. It would be great if he turns out to be a serious GC contender, especially if Cue Card reaches the same level of form he showed last year. But, first I’d like to see him winning two more decent chases (ideally the 3 miler at Cheltenham and then the Worcester at Newbury) before considering the King George or the GC.
Having just watched the replay, I agree – a nice schooling round there for Thistlecrack against very inferior opposition. I don’t think we learnt very much there, other than that the horse can jump fences at a relatively modest racing pace and that he is fit and well. Thinking ahead, there were a few clues though: for a big horse he is a very nimble jumper. He can go short and long and can fiddle. Interestingly too, he’s happy leading on either leg and, regardless of which lead he lands on, he gallops away with the same momentum. So RH or LH shouldn’t be a problem. But, currently he does have a tendency to give the fences some air, and he is not that fast over them i.e. he wasn’t taking lengths out of this lot over the fences, even when being extravagant. Rather, it’s his engine that takes him away from them (in the end). So, I think he does need quite a bit more practice and at a faster pace before being plunged in the deep end against top-flight staying chasers– something I always worry about with novice chasers, however talented they are.
The other question marks I have currently are (1) why – if chasing has always been his game and he can jump well – that it took them so long to put him over fences? Anyone know? Yes, he could mop up in the weak stayers’ division and earn a lot in the process, but he could equally well have gone the RSA route last year as a 7/8yo, and that would have been a year later than normal. I’m just wondering if they have underlying concerns re soundness – noting the ‘rain dances’ and desire for good-soft ground. 2) Cheltenham – looking back over his entire form record, there is a not too impressive Neptune performance in there, to add to several others that didn’t mark him out as outstanding early on.
Hopefully, they will go the Coneygree route @ Kempton (the Feltham), and follow Coneygree’s path to Cheltenham rather than being tempted by the bonus.
Has Tizard forgotten about a certain stablemate that would have netted the triple crown if not for unseating close to home? Do we believe if Cue Card hacks up Saturday everyone else draws stumps? Unless Cue Card has declined rapidly since last seasons achievements he won’t run because they think his stablemate is superior? I doubt that. I’m sure his owners would doubt that also. I’don’t have Cue Card over the novice all day long. Even at 11.
The other question marks I have currently are (1) why – if chasing has always been his game and he can jump well – that it took them so long to put him over fences? Anyone know? Yes, he could mop up in the weak stayers’ division and earn a lot in the process, but he could equally well have gone the RSA route last year as a 7/8yo, and that would have been a year later than normal. I’m just wondering if they have underlying concerns re soundness – noting the ‘rain dances’ and desire for good-soft ground. 2) Cheltenham – looking back over his entire form record, there is a not too impressive Neptune performance in there, to add to several others that didn’t mark him out as outstanding early on.
You’re hard to please TO.
There were some “little issues” that kept his early years to a minimal number of bumpers, but has had two very sound, uninterupted seasons since.
Ground conditions aren’t a problem, the World Hurdle was on good going, massively impressive there and came out of the race well enough to take his chance at Aintree just a few weeks later – which he won again impressively.
That “not too impressive Neptune performance”, came under a 7 lb claimer unable to claim his allowance and only 9 days after the horse’s hurdling debut, over a trip short of his best.
With a horse bred for stamina it is surely best to judge by what he does in stamina tests?
By one Ascot Gold Cup winner – Kayf Tara – out of a mare who’s by another Ascot Gold Cup winner – Ardross. The dam herself – Ardstown – won staying chases… So Thistlecrack is bred purely for stamina. Even so, he went in to last season having raced at as far as 3 miles only twice. Won the Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle by 13 lengths from a horse who’d been beaten only 5 lengths in the Neptune… And unable to get a clear run, squeezed up twice by Walsh before finishing best of all – an unlucky half length behind Killultagh Vic in the Grade 1 at Punchestown; 8 1/2 clear of the 3rd Shaneshill. Why it took them so long to try 3m+ remains a mystery.Believe I read somewhere early last season that Thistlecrack was going to be allowed one try against the best estalished staying hurdlers and that would tell connections which path to take – stay hurdling or novice chasing. Ran away with the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury for an easy 6 lengths victory over Deputy Dan, another 3 back to 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden. Giving the runner-up 4 lbs and recieving 4 from the third. Enspiring some of us to back him for the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Thankfully, connections took the smaller obstacles route, but… but for one run could easily have run over fences last season.Make no mistake, when it comes to staying races this is some racehorse. Over 3m+… but for luck in running he would be unbeaten.
Value Is EverythingWe didn’t learn much other than he could jump fences. I would have thought that was a pretty big part of the puzzle. I believe if he fully translates his hurdling ability he has a great chance of landing a Gold Cup. The market reflects that view. It is a shame we are not looking at a younger horse but that’s just the way it is. I have no idea what issues he might have had but horses do mature at different rates and he looks pretty near a peak at the moment. Why not just enjoy that?
Don’t know why anyone would want to crab the performance unless it was JJMSports bemoaning the fact that he didn’t win by more than 4 lengths to land a great value bet.
As a 2 stone better horse than Coneygree over hurdles he has every chance of going on but why anyone would want to take 5/1 for a Gold Cup now mystifies me. And Luke Harvey’s comment that he thought Thistlecrack would be an even better horse over fences (and that was before yesterday’s race) will take some achieving.
I wonder if they will give him an entry for the Grand National.
Don’t think many are crabbing the performance? Just questioning the value of him being 4/1 favourite for the toughest staying chase in the calendar off the back of one novice chase against inferior opposition…
No-one can argue he did it well…if I was backing a favourite for a race like a gold cup at this stage is at least have liked to have seen him tested in a proper run race…
At this stage I would still much prefer to side with Coneygree even with the question marks over injury and ground…he has at least proven he can put in a spectacular round of jumping, at pace, under pressure and against decent opposition…
I hope and pray they both turn up in the King George! Think it would be a foolish move by the Tizzards though personally…
Those questioning the 5/1 what price would you lay him at?
As regards realistic potential dangers there really aren’t that many, if any. I would put Coneygree as second best but he is returning from injury and even if he comes back in the same form I doubt that level will be nearly good enough. I think he needs to find another 10lb+ and I can’t see that happening. He is a very strong galloper but that style of racing would just give Thistlecrack an ideal lead into the race.
Thankfully, connections took the smaller obstacles route, but… but for one run could easily have run over fences last season.
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