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Nap, Lay and Each Way

Home Forums Cheltenham Festival 2021 Nap, Lay and Each Way

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  • #1517178
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23815

    NAP – Shishkin, Envoi Allen and Monkfish all standout as bankers

    LAY – I’ll come back for this

    EW – Santini, saves his best for Cheltenham, disagree with those that say race was in his favour last year as didn’t play into his stamina strengths at all

    Member since March 2008
    #1517185
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2696

    NAP – envoi/shiskin double
    Lay – Galvin
    E/W – mohaayed (pertempts)

    #1517193
    Cork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 751

    Nap: Shishkin. I honestly think nothing will get near him.

    Lay: Chacun Pour Soi. 6/4 against a fragile horse makes no appeal. He will find this a very different test to sauntering around at long odds on in small field, soft ground graded races in Ireland and has to be taken on at the price.

    Each way: In the absence of knowing the handicap fields, I will put up Samcro in the Ryanair. Don’t laugh! I know he has a lot to prove but he had an underwhelming pre-Cheltenham last season as well and still came good at the festival. He travelled like a class horse in the Marsh. The track and expected better ground will suit him and I will not be at all surprised to see him run a big race in what looks an open contest.

    #1517197
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2691

    NAP: Envoi Allen

    Lay: Zanahiyr

    Each Way: Min

    #1517198
    shipithollabolla
    Participant
    • Total Posts 117

    NAP – Monkfish, just feels like the ideal horse for the race, a big bully of a stayer

    LAY – Shishkin – now a borderline squiggle horse and think one sticky jump or mistake could be chance-ending on a sharp course with Allmankind on the thruster up front.

    e/w – Chatham Street Lad (Marsh)

    #1517199
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3014

    @shipithollabolla

    All for ballsy chat, but in what world is Shishkin now a borderline squiggle horse !?!?!??!?!!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1517201
    shipithollabolla
    Participant
    • Total Posts 117

    I think people need to scrutinise a race with their own eyes and shut off the noise of TV pundits, Twitter wallahs etc. Admittedly it’s very hard to do when most worship TheRacingBlogger and co and can’t think for themselves: “this is a machine”, “wins everything” etc.

    Shishkin went missing halfway through his race at Kempton, started jumping slowly and dropped the bridle. His eventual strong finish and impressive win confirm the quirky streak for me – it wasn’t an Altior type flat spot, it was a sulk. I’ll be a layer rather than a backer when he’s 2/5 or whatever on the day.

    #1517204
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3014

    Thanks for your advice “ship”….i’d like to think i can make a judgement without TRB also.

    I don’t see any sign of a sulk, and in fact, i don’t see any sign of him “going missing”. I think you are looking for stuff that isn’t there…..

    Starting jumping slowly? He jumped 1 or 2 not as perfect as his debut…..remember he’s a novice having his 2nd start.

    I get it’s worth being picky over shorties, bit i also get the impression you are watching the wrong horse race lol.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1517205
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2691

    shipit I don’t have to listen to pundits etc and just nod head, I can make up my own mind. I don’t believe Shishkin is a slow jumper either.

    Comments in running last time out:

    “Took keen hold, chased leader, niggled along briefly just after 5th, headway and pressed leader before 6th, joined leader after 4 out, good jump to lead 3 out, shaken up and went clear after 2 out, easily, impressive.”

    No mention of a slow jump, just a brief niggle after 5th to get him upsides before the 6th. And his winning time was faster than Nubra Negra’s. If he was jumping slowly how did he manage that? Plus it was reported that Nicky Henderson’s horses weren’t running to their best over Xmas yet Shishkin still did that. If he was below par, god help the opposition when he is right!

    #1517206
    shipithollabolla
    Participant
    • Total Posts 117

    Mike, I think that shows what I’m talking about. Racing Post comments in running are fallible – they’re produced by an increasingly inept bunch of hacks who I doubt make any money from the game. Racing Post analysts often casually describe a race as “slowly-run” by their eye when Timeform show it to have been a pace meltdown. Not that Timeform analysts are to be trusted implicitly either… It pays to watch a race yourself trying to come to it neutrally.

    I’m not sure that beating Nube Negra’s time is especially noteworthy. I think that was an opportunist win from a useful non G1 horse against some below-par opposition. Again perhaps the Racing media are getting in your head with all the talk of Nube Negra being a Champion Chase contender.

    I wonder if Shishkin is overhyped in general. He was a massive drifter on the day in the Supreme last year and was fortunate to get up in a race that fell apart around him. Asterion Forlonge wiped out two rivals who were going well and ruined his own chance by jumping right, Abacabdras was left in front a long way out and gave it away and Chantry House hasn’t done much for the form. Again Shishkin was either struggling to keep up or pulling one of his trademark sulks a long way out before the race crumbled ahead of him.

    For the ‘Nap, Lay and E/W’ game, I’m just looking at the hotpots ante-post at the prices. Shishkin is the one who appeals least for me at the moment. I also predict he’s going to be a problematic horse who fails to fulfil his potential in future seasons. We’ll see – don’t mind looking silly if I’m wrong.

    #1517208
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2691

    I did watch the race as well shipit. I just don’t share your view that he jumped slowly.

    #1517209
    Cork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 751

    I can understand putting up a short priced favourite as the Lay but “Shishkin went missing halfway through his race”?! Sorry, I know it is a game of opinions but I can’t see that at all!

    #1517211
    shipithollabolla
    Participant
    • Total Posts 117

    I’m partner in a little syndicate flipping UK horses from claimers and HIT sales and sending them to a trainer in France for the prize money, then hopefully selling for a profit on top. That’s always the aim anyway. Win or place in a French claimer or two at the small tracks and sell within 4 months and you’re usually still ahead after travel and training fees. Once in a while you get lucky and have one that improves to compete in the Quinte handicaps and sometimes you get unlucky and have an injury.

    I digress. Our core belief when looking at a potential buy is never to bid for anything that has shown a lazy or ungenuine streak. If they’ve shown any nasty tendencies at all, they aren’t for us. We don’t mind a bleeder or something with dodgy wind but can leave the rogues. So I think I’m hypersensitive when I watch a race – even a little tantrum like Shishkin’s is enough to make me roll my eyes and see which way that horse will be going.

    #1517213
    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 872

    NAP: Envoi @ EVS
    LAY: Zanahyir @ 11/4
    EW: Longhouse Poet @ 33/1 NHC

    That EW one was tricky, tons of lovely EW prices to be had at the moment, especially in behind the big three short novice chasers

    #1517275
    Kendicate
    Participant
    • Total Posts 81

    Nap: Honeysuckle – mares hurdle
    Lay: zanahyir -triumph (no strong view her -only because of the favourites have a very poor record in the race)

    E/w : Fakiera – Albert bartlett

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