Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Cheltenham Archive › Cheltenham Festival 2021 › Nap, Lay and Each Way
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Triptych.
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- January 30, 2021 at 11:01 #1520360
Nap Envoi Allen , won’t get beat
Lay Santini going to go into the GC after running in a GN trial , Nicky finally realising what he is . . .
E.w , Altior , that last run was bad but he did scope badly , he may not be the horse of old but he,s a e.w play if he gets there
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
January 30, 2021 at 11:19 #1520363HDLG I think the lay is one of the favourites you wanna take on. Santini isn’t one of them.
January 30, 2021 at 11:20 #1520364Mike why is he entered in a GN trial ….he,s the lay all right
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
January 30, 2021 at 11:26 #1520365Lay is a favourite you want to take on at Cheltenham as I said. Santini isn’t much of a lay, we could all pick horses that aren’t favourites like 50-1 shots for example in Cheltenham races as lays, but what’s the point? lol
I’ll take your Santini pick as basically saying “I don’t have a favourite to lay”.
January 30, 2021 at 11:37 #1520368Mike he,s short enough ….you never answered my question … Why not the Denman chase , as you said he needs plenty work to get fit but a slog in a GN trial , not ideal
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January 30, 2021 at 11:41 #1520370I’m laying Al Boum Photo (place market) really poor value considering he only beat the boat in a slowly run race
A decent pace will see the boat’s stamina come into play whilst those with tactical pace will have had it blunted by running that bit faster from earlier on in the race.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
January 30, 2021 at 11:42 #1520372As far as I am aware HDLG, he’s entered in both and Henderson hasn’t definitely said which one the horse will run in. The state of the ground is going to have a bearing on which one he is going to go for I believe. He doesn’t like running 2 ‘stable stars’ in the same race usually but he may not have a choice on this occasion.
Another option is a racecourse gallop for Santini and miss the races altogether, I wouldn’t rule that out completely. Champ will need a run.January 30, 2021 at 11:45 #1520375Ok question why can’t Santini go make the pace …he,ll stay farther … Nathan watch between the 3rd and 2nd last …that’s why why he won’t win ..tactical pace
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January 30, 2021 at 11:49 #1520376HDLG that was off a slow pace. This year Native River and Frodon will go at it. What happened last year at that moment wont have any bearing on this year, the race will have a completely different dynamic.
January 30, 2021 at 11:53 #1520378Mike if they go off hard he,ll end up even further behind , he,s not the only stayer …and you still haven’t answered my question , people year on year put up the new one in the champ hurdle …and every year Sam started rowing at the same part of race …tactical pace is very important …if it soft native will finish in front of santini
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January 30, 2021 at 11:56 #1520380Yes but where did he finish and will tactical pace be so relevant in a faster run early pace when they arrive at between the 3rd and 2nd last.? He doesn’t need to make the pace as he nearly won last year anyone would think he was a ten length loser in last years race. They could run him further up the field or make the running if its run the same sort of pace as last time I guess. I’m sure Nicky and Nico will have discussed it as they seem to want to do something similar in the King George.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
January 30, 2021 at 12:07 #1520383Sim to KG …he folded tamely , if he tried to make the pace …jumping next to Native would be a bad idea , there’s also the ground … See to many question or negatives about him , let’s be honest both his runs this year aren’t good enough to win a GC …has last year’s race left a mark …guys he,s my lay , to each there own
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
January 30, 2021 at 12:09 #1520384Not sure which question you want me to answer HDLG. The only question you asked me was “Why not the Denman chase” and I have answered it.
Regarding your other point, I am pretty sure that IF Santini arrives in the same form as last year he will beat Native River. Native River is 11 years old, ran in 19 chases and has had a few goes in the Gold Cup. You also have to factor in the trainer and what his horses are going to be like going into Cheltenham. Santini is 9, only had 8 chase starts and career form on soft or heavy is 113112112, two defeats were in grade 1s and 1 on a seasonal debut, so the ground going soft wont give Native River any advantage.
January 30, 2021 at 12:10 #1520385In my head I cant map out a way santini wins
The only way I can see it is if they go a suicidal pace on bottomless ground and the tug boat who fell out the back of the tv at half way is the only one still going
January 30, 2021 at 12:16 #1520386Mike I can’t see a Denman chase entry , Tizzards had a bunch of horses placed yesterday so it looks like they are coming back to form so I wouldn’t be to worried , do you really think a racecourse gallop will do him , as you’ve said he,s a big horse hard to get fit …. I’m with FF for him to win all the other jockeys would need to go off at a stupid pace , lol even then would that not set it up for Champ to , lay lay lay
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
January 30, 2021 at 12:17 #1520387Mike even at 11 Native is a better horse then Santini
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
January 30, 2021 at 12:17 #1520389Its a championship race FF91, anything could happen to the leading protagonists.
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