October 7, 2020 at 22:14 #1505265AutumnalParticipant
- Total Posts 432
National Hunt Chase – Aione 33/1
RSA Chase – Aione 50/1
Marsh Novice Chase – Easywork 25/1
Gold Cup – Allaho 25/1
To win any race:
Fury Road 14/1
Ferny Hollow 8/1
Wide Receiver 20/1October 19, 2020 at 20:43 #1506744
Hi all, my first post as a member….
A friend of mine must get fed up of me constantly stating that I can’t stand the flat, I’m a National Hunt man through and through. So even though its early doors I’ve been going through my notebook, plus watching the highlights from last season and below are a few brief pointers/thoughts on horses I initially fancy at this early -bird stage going into next season……
Uninspiring choice to start with is SHISHKIN – NAP (available @4/1). This big imposing horse only blipped his copybook by falling first time out over hurdles at Newbury (may have done him some good as learnt from that experience). Blew apart his opposition with an explosive turn of speed leading up the Supreme, where in that race he didn’t have the best passage during the race and still got up to beat ABACADABRAS (who dined at the top table in Ireland and only got beat by ENVOI ALLEN) with 11 lengths back to the third. ABACADABRAS likely to stay over the smaller obstacles and is a player for the Champion Hurdle (Amongst others). Henderson knows how to train (silly statement) a 2-mile chaser as he has had one or two over the years. Nico De Boinville couldn’t hide his enthusiasm when interviewed immediately after the Supreme, gushing at the thought of him going chasing next season. I know 4/1 is short but I can see this being odds-on, come the day.
Marsh Novice Chase
Sorry, but yet another shorty, the fore-mentioned – ENVOI ALLEN is a machine who took all before him last year. Elliot clearly wants (and is gradually) stepping this horse up in trip, eventually to make a Gold Cup horse. This year however I can see him staying around the 2 ½ distances for his first season in novice chases. 7/2 still available for those who missed the 6/1 straight after the festival this year.
Ballymore – Albert Bartlett
I was all over APPRECIATE IT (16/1) for the Champion Bumper this season only for Mullins to win it with FERNY HOLLOW who had a better change of gear, sitting off the pace then chinning mine on the run in. I’ve watched this race time and time again and APPRECIATE IT is a resolute galloper and will appreciate (pardon the pun) a step up in distance. 14/1 Ballymore and 20/1 Albert Bartlett or around 10/1 to win any race.
MONKFISH is a horse I was lucky enough to spot last year and bet it ante-post for the Albert Bartlett @ 20/1 (Boom). A big raw type who was up with the pace all the way and battled back in a three-way photo. That showed real guts and determination and gave the impression that a fence will bring this horse on further, along with him filling out over the summer will only add to his credentials. There are quotes for the National Hunt chase but I think Rich Richie and Mullins will stick with the RSA. Around 8/1 now and the 14’s have all dried up.
Already a very hard race on paper but I’m siding with SANTINI. They didn’t go a relentless gallop this year and SANTINI was up there, but when the pace really quickened over the second-last he got tapped for toe only to run on again to be beaten into second, only done a neck. A real old-fashioned chasing type and will be in his prime next season at 9 years old. The old guard should all run again in this race, AL BOUM PHOTO is a cracking horse to have won two Gold cups but I’m putting my money on SANTINI being the improver to reverse the form and overturn the distance of a neck. Tizzard has a cracker with LOSTINTRANSLATION who will have an outstanding chance in this as long as his trainer doesn’t try and run it in too many Grade Ones before this race. DELTA WORK shot his bolt all through last season winning some hard Grade One races along the way. MONALEE I can see dropping back to the Ryanair to make room for the novices coming through, one of which is the same owned, MINELLA INDO – Undoubtably a good novice who’s mistake at the last in the RSA may have cost it a winning chance. The winner that day was CHAMP who although I had ante-post for the RSA I cannot touch with a barge-pole. He jumps like a table – lay, lay, lay. The third that day was ALLAHO, I can see contesting the Ryanair and is worthy of interest if he goes there.
Mares Novice Hurdle
Gordon Elliot ran a very lightly raced mare in last seasons Bumper who was only running her second ever race under rules – QUEENS BROOK was sent off 6/1 second fav and she ran a tremendous race in third. A compact mare who is quoted at 12/1 second fav behind GYPSY ISLAND (who has been out injured for a year) for this race. Although a very good mare, I cannot have a horse when they’ve been out for such a long time injured.
TO WIN ANY RACE
SAINT ROI (receiving 12lb) won the County with tons in hand and was clearly the handicap snip from this festival from this summer’s jumping sensation ARAMON. Watching the race again SAINT ROI was always travelling sweetly and used an explosive turn of foot after the last to win by 4 ½ lengths, winning it very cosily to say the least. JP owns and Mullins trains and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this going Champion Hurdle route. 20/1 widely available for that but 14/1 to win any race.October 19, 2020 at 20:54 #1506747
Apologies…..In regards to previous post with my selections (I did write and select these in late July)
i know some prices incorrect…October 19, 2020 at 21:25 #1506754TakeYourTimeParticipant
- Total Posts 208
Agree with most of your comments, Yogi
So far i’ve only dabbled with a couple of low stakes multiples. Abracadabras (Champion Hurdle), Monkfish (RSA) and Fury Road (Stayers Hurdle). £5 returns a little over £8k.
Also got a speculative £5 each way on Captain Guinness for the Arkle (16/1), Concertista in the Champion Hurdle (33/1), Put The Kettle On in Champion Chase (16/1) and Melon for the Ryanair (16/1). If all were to win, i’ll be close to becoming a millionaireOctober 19, 2020 at 21:45 #1506762
“If all were to win, i’ll be close to becoming a millionaire :good:”
Ha Ha Ha, the times I’ve said that, Good luck and nice to speak via forum TYTOctober 19, 2020 at 22:43 #1506767Venture to CognacModerator
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Welcome to TRF YogiOctober 20, 2020 at 06:45 #1506779
Thank you VTC, I’ve been reading this forum for years now with great interest. Some very smart judges on here with in-depth ante post write ups (your good self included). Looking forward to interacting with my thoughts when I can. Its all about opinions and if we can help each other find a winner or two, that’s all the better.October 21, 2020 at 01:01 #1506845FinalFurlong91Participant
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Aramax already looking like a plot job for a Cheltenham handicapOctober 21, 2020 at 12:02 #1506866Venture to CognacModerator
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Yeah FF, I’d like to see what they do with him next time, but I’d imagine there’s a long term plan there.October 22, 2020 at 05:08 #1506943Middle_Of_MarchParticipant
- Total Posts 2786
The Envoi & Shiskin (Marsh & Arkle) double was around 40/1 on the weekend after Cheltenham and I’ve been backing it weekly since. Around 16s now I believe.
Saint Roi wins the champion hurdle too.October 22, 2020 at 08:30 #1506945
Excellent call there Middle of March, I also have multiples which include those 3, amongst others in my post above, lets hope they all get thereOctober 25, 2020 at 07:50 #1507257He Didnt Like GroundParticipant
- Total Posts 1392
Got a e.w lucky 15 in yesterday so going to play following
Shiskin Arkle , banker …did anyone hear Mick Fitz yesterday about his first sight of him over a fence ….
Envoi Allen Marsh , I’ve played him already for RSA but this looks more likely
Abracadbras Champion hurdle , that run on the flat has me worried about Goshen after I’d played him earlier , I reckon
this fellow is the value now
Chacun poi soi Champion Chase , I’m worried Henderson may do a sprinter sacre in this with Altior but this fella is a deserved favourite
Lucky 15 e.w
Mcfabulous Stayers , missed the bigger prices but this horse is still value
RSA Commander of fleet …..I admit this is an absolute punt ..but hey you only live once
National Hunt Chase Mossy Fen , I really think this fella will be in front of Galvin in this , monster of a horse
GC Lostintranslation , I’ve said before I’ll say again his price for this
is nuts , ran a monster for a yard in the doldrums last year …yet more than double the price of slow boat santini …. And he does stayOctober 25, 2020 at 12:34 #1507292Nathan HughesParticipant
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I missed it, what did he say.?
I did hear him say that he’d like to see West Approach traveling better which I found a bit silly as he was crusing around and if anything lost it on the jumping whereas Froden was pinning every fenceMember since March 2008October 25, 2020 at 13:16 #1507299IstabraqParticipant
- Total Posts 392
he said shiskhin was a sight to behold jumping over fences or something like thatOctober 25, 2020 at 13:58 #1507307Nathan HughesParticipant
- Total Posts 25117
I’ll take what Mick says with a pinch of salt but that’s positive news nonethelessMember since March 2008
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