- This topic has 50 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I can see Mullins coming straight here with Benie.
I read about how she can injure herself jumping fences plus she has a had a setback so they will be careful with her. We know Willie loves to get a festival winner regardless of the race, if she comes here I dont see what beats her and I think that’s how him and Ricci will look at it. She’s a superb jumper and I think she’d go very close in the Ryanair but this is a much easier option and one I think connections will take up.
Not sure why anyone would be confident about BDD winning this on the back of being currently injured.
And if PTKO gets found out at the top 2 mile table as the season progresses and switches to here she will, I think, beat the lot of them.Re BDD Mike – Does ‘she had a little setback so won’t be appearing until the second half of the season’ sound serious? (without wanting to go round in circles as to how we interpret trainer quotes). It’s not uncommon for her to start later in the new year anyway.
Of course, any setback doesn’t evoke confidence, but I tell you what does – 2.30pm last Monday she was very well supported for this. Cut from 12 into 8, then steadily down into 5/1 over the course of the next few days. IMO a move like that gives a fairly strong indication that she is fit, well and most importantly, fancied by some who think she’ll win the race. Were you aware of the market move over the last week before posting?
I agree that PTKO would be a threat, but I don’t think she will end up here. Two reasons, firstly, connections had the balls to go for the Arkle last year and were rewarded with victory, so I struggle to see why they’d give up QMCC dreams with a horse that’s 3/3 at Cheltenham. Secondly, the division looks winnable. Chacun Pour Glass needs to get there (which is anyones guess at the stage), who knows when we’ll next see Altior, and I doubt they’d run from a fight with Politilogue over 2m to entertain one with BDD over 2m4f.
Champagne Classic had a setback, already backed by me, went blue on oddschecker and didnt make it.
Shewearsitwell has had a setback last week or so yet Paddy Power clipped her from 6s to 5s. Sometimes shortening of prices makes no sense to me.Benie was a cracking bet at 10/1+
What price would she be NRNB 2/1-5/2 maybe?
Then if PTKO runs in the champion chase she could be very short on the day
It was worth risking backing a non runner at that price
Wouldnt take much to move this market charlie, i could have benie cut into clear favourite in no time atall, there will be 0 liquidity in the market whatsoever especially at this early stage.
That being said if BDD does come here i would imagine it will be a hurdles prep then straight here, if a prep atall
Don’t know about NRNB, but i’d imagine she’d be evens on the day or shorter if showing. PTKO is unlikely to rock up here you’d imagine, so other than that….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ham – I agree to an extent, always weary reading too much into market moves, but some significant must be placed on it IMO, given the cut, when it happened and the fact it happened off the back of no published news whatsoever. It wasn’t like she went from 12’s to 10’s then steadied. She went from 12 to 10, then halved in price again. It might mean nothing, but I’m glad I got 10’s.
My view was that it was a Paddy Power compiler putting two and two together – Mullins has a new Mares’ Hurdle horse and mooted the Mares’ Chase for BDD early season. PP slashed her, the rest of the industry got spooked and guessers tracking Oddschecker joined in to some extent as well. Very unlikely any serious money was involved. It was a bit of a ‘bait price’ in the first place for anyone wanting to tie their money up and take the chance.
I take the point that BDD would be almost certainly be shorter than 3/1 NRMB if she turned up here, but if you took 10/1 in the last week or two your value was in believing there is less than 20% chance she will run in a different race or not make Cheltenham at all. I don’t know…for a horse recovering from a setback with connections who love to change their mind about targets…it’s going to be a long 4 months!
I found it interesting in previous conversations about Benie Des Dieux, Mullins said she is a very hard horse to keep sound. And he believes chasing is tougher on the legs than hurdling. Kudos if she gets there for you and you end up sitting on a beautiful AP bet, but I’m not sure my nerves could take it.
Magic of light the value here for me. 20s at the moment. Trainer has stated it as the target en route to the national. Weights will be out by then so no risk to its national handicap mark.jumping seems to have improved over regulation fences and now rated 158. Will be around 6s on the day I reckon and if sound one of the few guaranteed to run here.
Really like PTKO but pretty sure it will go champ chase as the opposition just won’t serve it up to her before the festival.
Cashed out PTKO. May lose the cash out option when it goes NRNB so had to make a decision.
Anyone know the conditions for this race yet?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!In what regard, Jack? I know it’s a grade 2 over 2m 4f on the new course, not sure if you wanted more?
Think I read its 5lb penalty for grade 1 chase wins and 3lb for grade 2 chase wins
Would like to see dame de compagnie given another run, one run in a 2 runner race surely wont be enough experience
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.