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Willie is more likely to acquire and/or train a higher calibre of animal than most. He has 200+ horses in training and because a lot of them are very good, this equals increased expectations which in turn, creates increased disappointment when one of them gets injured. Nobody talks about the 100+ horses he keeps fit every year who just aren’t good enough. It’s a bit like humans thinking we have some sort of sensory gift to tell when someone is staring at us when in reality (and this has been proven) we only remember the times when we look up and someone is staring but forget the thousands of times when we look up and someone isn’t. Same principle. You’ve taken a 10 year window to list 17 horses, which is a tiny number in comparison to the horses Willie will have trained in that time? How many has he kept sound that you cannot name? 17 is a tiny number and what’s bizarre is of those 17, they won 17 races at the festival! I say bizarre because people who follow racing should know that horses are athletes competing at the very top level and injuries are more likely to occur when horses are delivering gut busting efforts on more competitive races. If you reach the top level (like pretty much every horse you name), you’re taking in multiple Grade 1’s to achieve that reputation which takes it toll. I really don’t think this a good thread at all.
Burning Victory
Willie might want more rain, but she’s won twice on good ground in France over the summer and IMO dispelled the ‘wants soft’ tag. I remain convinced that if BV could jump she’d be a 150+ hurdler, but her jumping is her achilles heel. She obviously won the Triumph fortuitously, but came from a long way back and in the end class told vs some decent rivals. She’s 117171 since joining Willie and both 7’s can be described as ‘not fluent 3rd, 5th etc, but stayed on well’. She is a big mare with a massive engine, and I think the invariable cavalry charge in the first quarter of the race will set her up perfectly in the last quarter. She wasn’t beating much in her races in France but IMO was winning with enough in hand not to matter. Willie likes to get summer runs into his Cesarewitch horses and she was dossing about in France just getting fit. She has Buick up top and carries 8-10 off a mark of 94, which is thrown in and she could be improving at 5 for all we know. I’m virtually certain she’s a more talented horse than M C Muldoon and if she goes here then I can see that price correcting, chunks coming, and that price more than halving.
Epona Plays @ 20/1 5 places looks stonking value to me. Lost very little in defeat LTO going down just over a length, and only just lost to Mother Earth who she was giving 5lbs to. The hold up tactics just don’t suit her – she wants to front run and ran a blinder in the Pretty Polly doing just that, before the last 2f stretched her. Back at a mile on a track that can suit front runners hitting the dip and being hard to reel back, I think 20/1 EW with 5 places massively underestimates her chances and the rain about is a plus not negative.
I mean, anyone on Santa Barbara at a big price must be elated. All the main challengers seem to have fallen away and she’s being backed like defeat is out of the question. I will be taking her on though, I think she’s a terrible price and way way too short at 5/4.
Van Gogh has clearly developed very nicely over the winter. The reports from AOB and RM have been incredibly positive, as has the market support for both this and the Derby. Ryan picking Wembley makes me happy because he’s my main fancy and it backs up AOB reportedly thinking he’s their best chance, but Ryan has got it wrong before though so it’s a box ticked without getting carried away.
Draw will be interesting. I’d like to see Wembley ridden more prominently on Saturday and I am sure those will be the instructions. It can be impossible clawing back a horse that gets into a good rhythm rolling into that dip. I just hope Wembley isn’t left with too much to do because his market prominence and form case it based on two hard luck stories.
Im siding with JOB in the two big handicaps. Sky go 7 places in the 3.40 and 4.50.
Scholastic in the 3.40 – may have disappointed at Cheltenham LTO but she’s ahead of these off a mark of 123 IMO. She has been running in much more competitive races than this, has C&D winning form and with 7 places @ 9/1 I cannot see her out of the frame. Cheltenham may not have suited her and back here I think she has a massive chance. Took 12 on the exchange.
Midnight Run in the 4.50 is a really interesting one that feels like a plot to me. Was 2nd to Envoi Allen on the flat, then beat Column Of Fire and Easywork, which is pretty good going. Beat Colreevy in his maiden hurdle 10L on soft ground, and she was backed that day like defeat was out of the question. That was a good enough performance to book his place in the Royal Bond and Lawlors at Naas where he disappointed, and they subsequently went chasing. Ran a fine 6th on debut after 314 days off, but then ran Captain Guinness to 4L. That was a serious performance IMO and CG is a 150’s animal, and the 3rd that day finishing 30L back has subsequently won since, as have a number of others who were beaten out of sight. He comes back to hurdles and JOB has booked arguably the best claimer in Ireland in Jordon Gainford to take 7lbs off his back. I could be way off, but this stinks of a plot to me. 14/1 EW 7 places seems fair and also took 19 on the Exchange. Doubled EW with Scholastic too.
Was really looking forward to taking Santa Barbara on but with loads coming out the race doesn’t look nearly as good. Fair play to those on Santa Barbara at nice prices but christ, I wouldn’t touch 7/4. Winning maiden, sure, but awkward head carriage, form looks rubbish and she’s inexperienced to boot. She might just be the tool that AOB says she is but I wont be paying to find out at 7/4, no way. Issue is I can’t have Pretty Gorgeous unless it comes up soft which is unlikely, Alcohol Free looks more like a sprinter than a miler so I’d be catching my head there, Sacred is a proper question mark over a a mile. Come to think of it Santa Barbara might not even need to be brilliant to win this. I’ll probably take a swing at some big EW prices on the day.
Sir Lamorak @ 25/1
Loved his run LTO. Bolshoi Ballet put in an excellent performance on the same card over same C&D but upon further scrutiny, (according to ATR), Sir Lamorak was about 5 lengths quicker overall, was faster late on, and carried 2lbs more. IMO there’s no way Sir Lamorak should be over 3 times the price of Bolshoi Ballet, so he’s my idea of the value in the race.
Cheers chaps, I was thoroughly delighted with that! What a run and did it all so effortlessly
