- This topic has 149 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The Wembley move yesterday was because Hugh Taylor tipped him and then Tony Calvin wrote that he’s heard rumours as have others that AOB is very sweet on Wembley at the moment.
Your point about the first string TTC is spot on. Makes me laugh when people say it doesn’t matter who RM rides. It does matter. It makes a huge difference as you’ve pointed out.
Yes of course his second and third strings can win but it’s much more likely they don’t especially in the 2000 Guineas.
I think SMB will go to the French Guineas as the ground is too quick for him, possibly with Battleground waiting for the SJP as AOB mentioned in February. Being a War Front means he’ll take time to come to himself at 3.
Military Style will set a fast pace to try and set it up with RM riding Wembley and Frankie riding Van Gogh, that’s my guess
Draw will be interesting. I’d like to see Wembley ridden more prominently on Saturday and I am sure those will be the instructions. It can be impossible clawing back a horse that gets into a good rhythm rolling into that dip. I just hope Wembley isn’t left with too much to do because his market prominence and form case it based on two hard luck stories.
I think the extra mile will irradicate that. I agree with you though, I am expecting them to ride him slightly more in the pack. I think this was the plan last time in the Dewhurst, but he just got caught out wide from a bad draw and had no choice as the horse inside him was keeping him out. It marks up his run even more on ground he wouldn’t have enjoyed either.
Regarding Ryan Moore I think the issue isn’t so much that him riding is a positive or negative undoubtedly a positive for me he’s a top jockey, its more that the market can massively overreacts to whichever horse he is on and pushes out the yards other runners to bigger prices than they ought to be, I had a very big bet by my standards on Magna Grecia when he won as he was a ridiculous price for a G1 winning 2yo over the trip with his pedigree against a very dubious stayer in Ten Sovereigns. I wasn’t remotely bothered Moore wasn’t riding, he has to ride one of them but they don’t exactly have bad horses and if you are getting Dettori instead of Moore that’s hardly a negative, Heffernan and Wayne Lordan are also good jockeys.
Moore chose wrong last year too
His pick was well down the field and dettori finished a close second on wichita
Yeah that’s the point TTM exactly, can get pretty good odds on their second strings. I never begrudge people taking AOB second strings for sure, it’s a good strategy. But people make comments like it doesn’t matter who the Ballydoyle number 1 is. Well statistically it does, a lot, especially in the Guineas.
I think he was told To ride TS in 2019 and last year both horses weren’t good enough to win as neither were good enough stayers anyway despite Wichita getting close. He was always going to get beaten by a staying miler.
This year I’d be very surprised if RM is wrong as both VG and Wembley have strong chances on paper and trends
Yes but you need to incorporate the odds for those stats to be worth anything as you could be losing a fortune backing the Moore rides without that context.
Decs…
Albadri Hollie Doyle
Battleground TBC
Chindit Pat Dobbs
Devilwala Rossa Ryan
Legion Of Honour David Egan
Lucky Vega Shane Foley
Master Of The Seas William Buick
Mutasaabeq Jim Crowley
Mystery Smiles Silvestre de Sousa
Naval Crown Adam Kirby
One Ruler James Doyle
Poetic Flare Kevin Manning
Thunder Moon TBC
Van Gogh TBC
Wembley TBCDidn’t think Van Gogh would be running as he obviously looks like he will stay much further. Battleground is running due to the going and Wembley will enjoy it too. I’d fancy battleground but as Frankie has got the ride sounds like he’s the least fancied. The typical coolmore 2000 Guineas puzzle to solve. If Wembley has trained on then he wins imho. Always feel both the guineas can be pot luck as to backing the winner.
Van Gogh has clearly developed very nicely over the winter. The reports from AOB and RM have been incredibly positive, as has the market support for both this and the Derby. Ryan picking Wembley makes me happy because he’s my main fancy and it backs up AOB reportedly thinking he’s their best chance, but Ryan has got it wrong before though so it’s a box ticked without getting carried away.
Interesting to see Timeform’s star ratings for the race denoting what they think has the best chance (you can see them for free on the ATR racecards) gives 8 of the 15 runners 4* or more out of 5 for their chance and that is pretty much my assessment of the race as well, lacks a superstar but plenty of potential good ones. I don’t necessarily share their assessment of Thunder Moon having the best chance but that is a personal opinion on his chances of actually staying rather than on the basis of his form which is very similar to Wembley.
As a big fan of Van Gogh for the Derby i’m very interested to see how he gets on here. Couldn’t fancy him for this but a nice staying on 3rd or 4th would suit me nicely. As long as he isn’t the pacemaker from a nice draw in 9.
Be very interesting to see if Devilwala stays over his side from stall 1 or not. Other pace looks to be Naval Crown in 11 and Mustaabeq in 12 so you’d expect a middle to stands side main group.
I think that this is a really tough one, but it does look like a good renewal. I hope in time that’s the case.
Thunder Moon 11-2, and One Ruler 17-2 are my bets.
Not a race in which I’ve had a huge amount of success in recent times but I’ll add my tuppence worth!
Based on times of recent runs my two against the field are:
Mutasaabeq 6/1 – Who knows what will happen when pressure is applied, but he was mightily impressive here on seasonal debut in a very decent time.
Van Gogh 10/1 – Progressive in the latter half of last season after a slow start in a ‘strange’ year and put up strong performances at season back-end. May need further but happy to go with AOB’s judgement in running him here.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.