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If Kingston Hill wins the Leger and we get soft ground at Longchamp, you can bet that he won’t be allowed to go off 20/1.
I also see Ruler of the World in the betting at 33/1, might be worth a tickle each-way if he makes a promising return to action in the Prix Foy?
Many congratulations to Jason and of course; a shout out to all who took part.
Well organised.
For the final push…
14:05 – TRADE STORM (Lady Lara)
14:40 – FROM FROST (Captain Morley)
15:15 – BAITHA ALGA (Jungle Cat)
15:50 – SIR WALTER SCOTT "NAP" (Great Hall)
16:25 – MIND OF MADNESS (Al Fareej)
17:00 – LLANARMON LAD (Hit The Jackpot)
17:35 – ROYAL MEZYAN (Speed Hawk)Best of luck to all.
13:55 – LAHAAG (Satellite)
14:30 – CAVALRYMAN (Estimate)
15:05 – HIGHLAND COLORI (Glen Moss)
15:40 – G FORCE (Astaire)
16:20 – ERIK THE RED (Mount Tahan)
16:55 – MASTER THE WORLD "NAP" (Lesha)Good luck!
13:55 – MUBTAGHAA (Marcano)
14:30 – REALTRA (Cursory Glance)
15:05 – BRONZE ANGEL (Prince of Johanne)
15:40 – TALENT (Venus de Milo)
16:20 – WAILA (Quiz Mistress)
16:55 – BRAGGING (Wedding Ring)Howdy,
(reserves in brackets)
13:55 – Secret Witness (Monsieur Joe)
14:30 – Growl (Jamaica)
15:05 – Hartnell (Marzocco)
15:40 – The Grey Gatsby ‘NAP’ (Mukhadram)
16:20 – Saptapadi (Quest For More)
16:55 – Polarisation (Teruntum Star)I think Prince Gibraltar is too short at 7/4. Considering they’re getting their toe in I think Mazocco is worth an each-way shout at 25/1. He stays well and the Ascot form has been well boosted courtesy of Hartnell. My other bet shall be Golden Guepard given his likeable win last time out and fondness for soft ground. Also 10/1 seems value, although I may have missed that…
I wonder if I could get odds on next year’s 2000 Guineas, Derby & St Leger winners have not seen a racecourse yet? Odds separately of course. I expect the odds for next year’s Derby winner not having run yet being lower than the same for the Guineas winner.
I will say that I was at Kempton back in oh, April I think, to see Tiggy Wiggy’s first run. Without any horse having run the filly started 8/13F, me and my old man knew the word was out then and decided not to get involved. To this day I have yet to see a better debut from a horse, she was about a furlong clear coming into the straight and won like she saw the Tesco’s van in the car-park. From that day forward (bar Royal Ascot) I proceeded to pile on her in every race, I did get caught very cold when she lost at York but recouped it at Sandown. She started 3/1 that day and it sill seems a mystery how that happened. The only reason I didn’t back her in the Queen Mary was that I thought Anthem Alexander was unbeatable given what I had seen from her and so switched ships. Probably my best judgement call so far this season.
So my two most impressive 2 year olds this season are Tiggy Wiggy & Athem Alexander.
I think Aljamaaheer should be aimed at the Hungerford, 7 furlongs could be right up his street. When held up in the sprints he is left with too much to do considering he doesn’t have a turn of foot equal to the top ones and when up with the pace he burns himself out. I think a fast run 7 will allow him to be switched off at the back but still have enough time to get there and thereabouts late on. Perhaps even the Foret on Arc day could be a target?
It wasn’t a total disaster, Aljamaaheer was my only bet as I thought Slade Power would win but wasn’t confident enough to get on at 7/4, and I struggled to find an alternative.
What do you do with Noozoh Canarias? I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in the Nunthorpe, I’m sure the trainer is already working back from the Abbaye.
I was impressed with Undrafted considering the July Course is about as much different from US tracks as you can get. I would love for the horse to stick around for The Sprint Cup as he could be a force to be reckoned with on a course like Haydock, but alas I doubt it will happen.
I always heard Cougar Mountain was a very fast horse and I already think a drop to 5 will see him to best effect. But anything he does this year is just readying him for a reckless 4 year old campaign I’m sure.
Tropics? His run didn’t surprise me at all. In the past few years there hasn’t been a big gap between the top sprinting handicapers and the group horses. Let us not forget that he won a 20 runner handicap at York of 9st 10ib last July and nabbed a Listed win AT Newmarket and a Group 3 at Ascot, the later victory taking his rating to a lofty 116, which is good enough to be competitive in most July Cups. For whatever reason he just wasn’t with it in his runs previously this season. They weren’t poor though. Take out his run in the Duke of York, when he lost all chance at the start, then he was defeated by 4 lengths in a Newmarket Group 3 and 7 lengths in the Diamond Jubilee (I think the ground got him well beaten at Doncaster back in March). I would also note that in his last 3 runs he was always held up and couldn’t get going late on. Yesterday, he was ‘close up’ and managed to find his old sparkle. He was a force to be reckoned with last season and I am sure that his big run was not too much of a surprise to connections.
Finally, as for Slade Power? Well considering he managed to win a July Cup despite sweating buckets, he is clearly the best 6 furlong sprinter in Europe and I would expect him to confirm that at Haydock no matter who turns up. Whether he can do it in Melbourne I doubt. He will be racing against the best sprinters in the world in their back yard first time up with no prep. Let’s not forget how badly he ran in Hong Kong. I would run at Ascot on champions day instead and call it a day after that. Obviously, the millions of Aussie Dollars will be too much for the Powers in the grim end.
The winner is a fantastic racehorse, look at all the great races he ran last year, only bad race was in the Champion Stakes on soft going which was never going to suit. His run in Dubai was great considering he had no prep and I am convinced he was always going to come on for Ascot and to be fair wasn’t given a ride to see him to best effect, he has to be in front as soon as he sees the finishing line. He did just that today and Hanagan (once more) out rode them all.
I managed to get on at 16/1 Mukhadram. He was the winner a long way out. Hardly went a pace but somehow found himself many lengths in front of the principles, and this is a horse that does not stop for anything. Thoroughly enjoyable, makes you wonder how he got defeated in a Cambridgeshire of a mark of 90.
I couldn’t have Kingston Hill at all, he was always going to be done for a bit of pace at this distance and should be trained for the St Leger. Dettori told them as much when he got of so I hear.
The Fugue was given a tactically poor ride and was never going to pick up at the same rate she did at Ascot due to the tackiness on top of the ground.
I wouldn’t give up on Night Of Thunder, the race was not run to suit at all and Trading Leather should go close in the King George.
I doubt Mukhadram will stay a mile and a half but I can’t say for sure and Haggas does seem rather bullish about the bid.
Working on the basis that you have to be drawn low to have a greater chance of prevailing this is my early working.
Steps (1) probably has a clear favourite’s chance. His form from the King’s Stand and Epsom ‘Dash’ is near top-notch and the Varian gelding has already grabbed a Listed race up at Haydock this year. His rating of 110 should alone see him be there and there abouts and he does seem to act on pretty much any going having all wins on good or softer and having run a close second in a major competitive 5 furlong handicap this month last year at Ascot. My main, and to be fair only, worry is that although dawn in stall one Steps tends to be a bit slow away and held up recently. According to the Racing Post he was "soon off pace" in the King’s Stand and "held up in rear" at Epsom. You do need to have a lot of early pace to succeed in these and my worry is that Steps comes too late, he is awfully hard to win with these days. But as I say that is my only worry and Fallon is a strong jockey who can get a tune out of him.
Shamshon (2) is sure to go close, I felt the drop back to 5 will help (bit of a speedball). It was a fast and competitive race last time and Dettori had him to the fore for the most of it only to become a bit one paced late on. He is a horse of quality though and I remember seeing him last year and he looked even then like a top class sprinter in the making. He does have lots of early pace to use and is a course and distance winner.
One Chance (3) obviously had ground to make up with a few of these and his 2 year old form suggests he’s better on fast ground (wait and see how much rain we get)but drawn well and at 33/1 is a valuable each-way price.
Extortionist (4) brings top class form but ran lifeless on his last run at Sandown. Ryan Moore is on board (big +) but I am all but sure the going has to have the word ‘firm’ in the description to be seen to best effect. Furthermore, one must be a tad wary of a 3 year old having his 4th run in since the 14th June.
Trader Jack (5) will struggle to be competitive at this level and Ahtoug (6) is far too difficult to win with these days for me.
Henceforth, Shamshon and Steps for me with mild preference for the Richard Hannon colt. I may bung the pair in a reverse forecast to boot.
Diligence Duly Delivers?
Obviously Noozooh Canarias is the interesting one, will bowl along and lead the field on a merry dance for quite a while I can imagine. This is how I can see it all falling apart around Aljamaaheer late on.
The other interesting one is Undrafted from the States, I hear that he’s well regarding over the pond but I can’t really get a gage on the form.
Of course, the July Course is as far away as you can get from the flat tracks in America.
Tricky.
Just back stall 1 or if he’s a bit of a rag then stalls 1, 2 & 3.
Sandown’s sprint course, probably more draw biased then Epsom’s.
Backed Suegioo at Chester, felt loyal and had a little tickle on him at 12s for this. Looking back I should have backed him each-way but he ran a great race. In hindsight I should have done Angel Gabriel as well, but there you go. Also thought about the forecast but again there you go. I like Suegioo, I did feel Harley could have ridden a better race, he hoped to do the winner for a turn of foot by following him through when that wasn’t the best idea. Suegioo keeps going, I would have tried my hardest to get first run on the winner. Both are good horses though, and could prove to be group class in time.
If only there are odds about for the 2 miler on Champion’s Day. If the ground comes up soft then I would have a quiet word in the kind Doctor’s ear, informing him that a handily ridden Suegioo would be there and there abouts.
