- This topic has 16 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 764
Looks like a solid race with a good mix of older and younger sprinters. Personally I think Kingsgate Native at 7/1 looks the most solid option given the forecast ground and will be backing him.
I would opt for Pearl Secret if there is cut in the ground, otherwise I’ll probably leave the race alone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just back stall 1 or if he’s a bit of a rag then stalls 1, 2 & 3.
Sandown’s sprint course, probably more draw biased then Epsom’s.
- Total Posts 764
Steve I live a 20 minute walk from Sandown and although we had a fair amount of rain on saturday and a tiny bit of rain on sunday it was clear skies yesterday and it’ll be more of the same today. Looking at the forecast it looks to be even sunnier tomorrow, cloudy friday and rainy Saturday. I reckon it’ll be good ground on the day of the races and if the showers miss or are light then it’ll be good/firm. I’m a fan or pearl secret but I think it’ll be too fast for her. Then again with the showers it may not be fast enough for Kingsgate Native.
Thanks Charles, I wasn’t actually aware of that so will have a look into the past winners of the race to see where they’re drawn!
Thanks for the weather report Ben. I noticed that The Fugue had gone back out to 2/1 for The Eclipse and wondered if there was some expectation that the ground might not be ideal for her come Saturday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Yeah I think the slight drift is because of the forecast rain for Friday night/Saturday but noone really knows how much will come, it’s meant to be light showers though so I still believe the ground will be good with maybe gd/firm in places, the sun today should negate any rain that happens over the next couple of days.
Charles I don’t usually take notice of draws but like you said this race does seem to favour the lower draws, here are the results for draw numbers in this race over the last few years –
2013
1st – drawn 2 (5/2)
2nd – drawn 6 (15/2)
3rd – drawn 3 (5/1)2012
1st – drawn 9 (10/1)
2nd – drawn 8 (25/1)
3rd – drawn 7 (16/1)2011
1st – drawn 2 (11/2)
2nd – drawn 3 (9/1)
3rd – drawn 1 (25/1)2010
1st – drawn 1 (15/8)
2nd – drawn 2 (3/1)
3rd – drawn 4 (10/3)2009
1st – drawn 3 (9/2)
2nd – drawn 1 (13/8)
3rd – drawn 7 (11/1)2008
1st – drawn 3 (3/1)
2nd – drawn 8 (12/1)
3rd – drawn 4 (13/8)2007
1st – drawn 4 (7/4)
2nd – drawn 2 (13/2)
3rd – drawn 5 (6/4)2006
1st – drawn 2 (5/1)
2nd – drawn 1 (5/2)
3rd – drawn 9 (16/1)- Total Posts 764
Steps looks good to run a big race drawn in stall 1, today and tomorrow will tell us all we need to know about the form of the Varian yard.
Steps looks good to run a big race drawn in stall 1, today and tomorrow will tell us all we need to know about the form of the Varian yard.
I saw a Varian winner somewhere today in my quick scan through.
Pearl Secret is out but I am drawn to Extortionist at 10/1. I wasn’t sure this fellow had trained on after two modest runs but he scored next time and then went close at the Curragh in a group 3. 10/1 is OK for a punt and he’s got a decent draw with Ryan Moore a positive booking.
"Ryan Moore, Stall four, say no more!"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Steps looks good to run a big race drawn in stall 1, today and tomorrow will tell us all we need to know about the form of the Varian yard.
I saw a Varian winner somewhere today in my quick scan through.
Pearl Secret is out but I am drawn to Extortionist at 10/1. I wasn’t sure this fellow had trained on after two modest runs but he scored next time and then went close at the Curragh in a group 3. 10/1 is OK for a punt and he’s got a decent draw with Ryan Moore a positive booking.
"Ryan Moore, Stall four, say no more!"
I backed Extortionist in those first two runs this season when he didn’t perform. Stopped betting on him after that and what does he go and do? Goes and wins at 8/1 and then comes 2nd next time out…….typical!! Watched the replays of both those races and to me he just doesn’t look fast enough or have a quick enough turn of foot to beat all of the good’ns in this lineup. Though the booking of Ryan Moore suggests the stable have strong faith in him.
He needs to improve a bit Ben but he does hold a Nunthorpe entry so they must have hopes he will progress. Some of the opposition are handicappers on an upward trend and others are probably past their very best.
Stepper Point is almost certainly a bit of a false favourite in my eyes. He was second to Sole Power in Group 1 company but he was 50/1 that day and it may be that was the race of his life right there. His biggest career win has been at listed level.
Steps is in much the same boat as Stepper Point as a career best listed winner and his wins seem to have been on an easy surface.
Ahtoug has been plying his trade at Meydan for the most part and he finished behind Stepper Point when 5th behind Sole Power at Ascot. I don’t believe that this horse, as the ratings imply, suddenly improved 15lbs when second to Amber Sky at Meydan. The horse is six years of age but we are expected to buy into the fact that he pulled an extra stone out of the hat.
Kingsgate Native has some big races bagged but he’s getting on a bit and has only five wins from 39 career starts, quite low for a Group 1 winner.
I think I’d lay Ahtoug all day at 9/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll opt for Wind Fire, two from two at Sandown, beating the smart G Force last time. This is a step up but think she can prevail.
Working on the basis that you have to be drawn low to have a greater chance of prevailing this is my early working.
Steps (1) probably has a clear favourite’s chance. His form from the King’s Stand and Epsom ‘Dash’ is near top-notch and the Varian gelding has already grabbed a Listed race up at Haydock this year. His rating of 110 should alone see him be there and there abouts and he does seem to act on pretty much any going having all wins on good or softer and having run a close second in a major competitive 5 furlong handicap this month last year at Ascot. My main, and to be fair only, worry is that although dawn in stall one Steps tends to be a bit slow away and held up recently. According to the Racing Post he was "soon off pace" in the King’s Stand and "held up in rear" at Epsom. You do need to have a lot of early pace to succeed in these and my worry is that Steps comes too late, he is awfully hard to win with these days. But as I say that is my only worry and Fallon is a strong jockey who can get a tune out of him.
Shamshon (2) is sure to go close, I felt the drop back to 5 will help (bit of a speedball). It was a fast and competitive race last time and Dettori had him to the fore for the most of it only to become a bit one paced late on. He is a horse of quality though and I remember seeing him last year and he looked even then like a top class sprinter in the making. He does have lots of early pace to use and is a course and distance winner.
One Chance (3) obviously had ground to make up with a few of these and his 2 year old form suggests he’s better on fast ground (wait and see how much rain we get)but drawn well and at 33/1 is a valuable each-way price.
Extortionist (4) brings top class form but ran lifeless on his last run at Sandown. Ryan Moore is on board (big +) but I am all but sure the going has to have the word ‘firm’ in the description to be seen to best effect. Furthermore, one must be a tad wary of a 3 year old having his 4th run in since the 14th June.
Trader Jack (5) will struggle to be competitive at this level and Ahtoug (6) is far too difficult to win with these days for me.
Henceforth, Shamshon and Steps for me with mild preference for the Richard Hannon colt. I may bung the pair in a reverse forecast to boot.
- Total Posts 764
I’ll opt for Wind Fire, two from two at Sandown, beating the smart G Force last time. This is a step up but think she can prevail.
After watching Wind Fire’s last run a few times I may have been won over, disregarded her high draw last time at Sandown by breaking incredibly well and finished going away, could well do the same again and looks to be improving.
Draw is the only concern but all depends on the race itself, if Oisin can get a good pitch she’ll run well regardless.
I’ll opt for Wind Fire, two from two at Sandown, beating the smart G Force last time. This is a step up but think she can prevail.
Wind Fire has a good chance Rich. Her course form is a plus and at 12/1 there is a lot worse value in the race.
Ahtoug is almost certainly as short in the betting due to runner up finishes to Shea Shea and Amber Sky at Meydan, but his highest winning mark on turf is 95 and he has never won outside handicap company. He is now rated 20lbs higher than his last winning mark, without winning anything, he’s 0/3 at Sandown and yet he’s Fav with some firms.
He’ll be my lay of the day for sure.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After deciding to look at this race I think horses with a good record over 6f have a good chance in this, I think Dinkum diamond will run well, normally held but probert will probably be closer. Would prefer It to be soft though making it more like a 6f sprint, still think Shamshon has a good chance on a testing 5f, steps and kings gate native should be involved Shamshon now a non runner gives wind fire an even better chance if can get to the front from a wide draw.
Windfire
Kingsgate native
Steps
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.