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Noble Mission won’t run.
War Command has opened up at 6/1 after O’Brien’s comments.
The Fugue shortened to 7/4.
I may change my mind by the day, but I can’t see myself taking 7/4 or shorter about The Fugue.
Everything was perfect for her at Ascot, down to the running of the race and I would just fancy taking her on at Sandown.
At the prices? I don’t like Verrazano at 4/1, and that’s best odds. I fancy him going off at 13/2 on the day and I wouldn’t take that either. I think he’ll be as good at 10 furlongs but he just lacks that killer turn of foot you need to win an Eclipse.
War Command in all fairness needs to step up on what he’s done and I think stepping him up to this distance is a bit of wishful thinking.
Kingston Hill would be interesting, but he saw out the Derby so well I think he’ll be done for tactical speed in a 10 furlong Group 1.
True Story is interesting but you’re basically betting blind given his last performances (excuses, excuses).
Dank? I don’t see running, they should eye calmer waters.
Tullius would have a chance if there is a deluge of rain, otherwise it’s place money.
Hillstar and Trading Leather are both interesting, very interesting. I can forgive Trading Leather his run at Newmarket, he’ll come on bundles and his form from last year’s Juddmonte International will see him in good stead here. Hillstar I think is just as good over 10 furlongs and would have a great chance of perhaps nicking a few lengths round the bend. I would love to see Hillstar to the fore and it’s easy to come into the Sandown straight with a fair advantage. Neither would start at 25/1 come the day if they line up.
Arod I would have to back if he ran. I think 10 furlongs will see him to his best and a lovely fast pace for him to come off would be ideal. Value at 25/1.
But at the prices. I will back Mukhadram each-way all day at 14/1. He has never run a bad race and was unlucky not to be second last year. His form from Meydan is very good and he just wasn’t made the most of at Ascot, they will make the sole running with him at Sandown and I expect him to be in the best possible form he’s ever been in. The Fugue bounced back from Meydan brilliantly but not all do, I think Mukhradram may have needed the run to bring him on a bit and I think he’s guaranteed a first 3 finish.
Of course, come the day I may see sense.
Sky Lantern looked like a bull in the paddock at Ascot, if not too fit. Evidently, the filly improved (physically) quite a bit over the winter and the Duke of Cambridge was always going to be a prep for Newmarket, for which I would have no doubts regarding her fitness. Integral however, was impressive and will certainly give Sky Lantern something to chase into the final furlong. Weather permitting the grey will take all of the beating, rightfully so. However, I backed Sky Lantern as if defeat was out of the question last year and don’t intend to get caught out again (I was inconsolable for quite a while after that, I’m still bemused as to how Hughsie wasn’t given the race by the stewards). To be fair though you have to be quite forgiving to back her. She ran flat at Ascot and as for Hong Kong; well maybe she was given a dodgy in-flight meal (I’ve always been a bit sceptical of Ryanair in that department). It is interesting that Certify like Sky Lantern has had the Falmouth in mind for a while and is all set for Newmarket. Again, Certify looked magnificent before the Duke of Cambridge. As for Rizeena, she must have a shout, but I’ve always felt that she only just gets a mile and that the July Course won’t see her to best effect (I would aim the horse for the Foret on Arc day before a tilt at the Breeders Cup Mile). Lighting Thunder could be interesting, if you forgive her Ascot run then she has a great shout and could go close of a faster pace. Miss France could be anything but for some reason I don’t think she’ll run. Euro Charline has improved every run this season and is a beauty to watch. If she keeps on the upward curve then who knows? I also think the July Course will play to her strengths. And what about Marvellous or Thistle Bird? If either of them turned up then it would make the race a tad more interesting? I agree Sky Lantern is class and probably a class above. But this year’s renewal could prove more competitive than last year’s and she goes into the race off the back of a rough campaign and a few bad results. At this stage it’s too tough to say, and to be honest after last year’s fiasco I will leave the race alone, well alone.
1 anchor: Rishi Persad
2 paddock commentators: Clare Balding & Jason Weaver
1 post-race interviewer: Matt Chapman
2 analysts: Peter Naughton & Jim McGrath
1 betting ring: John McCririckI backed the Fugue this day at 9s (along with Mukhadram, who wasn’t seen to best effect with the ride he was given by the way).
The reason why I did this was due to the fact that from what I have seen so far in Treve’s career, she is better over 12 furlongs and with cut in the ground. Furthermore, I think she is better with a slow pace and the Prince Of Wales’ was always going to be run at breakneck with Ektihaam in the field. But the big thing is that she was receiving 11ib in the Arc compared to 3ib at Ascot. For sure, she will have grown and improved over the winter but I still felt that the young fillies are given too much weight in the Arc.
Overall, I felt there was enough negatives/doubts about Treve for the reasonable punter not to back her at 4/6. All these negatives didn’t even take into account that she was facing one of the best horses in the world in The Fugue on conditions that the older mare favours.
Treve will come back, and if the Arc is run on soft going then she will be right there. If this IS the case, then The Fugue will be looking on from the other side of The Channel.
If Matt Chapman is Marmite then I would have it on my toast every Saturday afternoon.
If not always 100% professional then at least he keeps me watching and not switching over to Coronation Street between races.
I tend to agree. However, Newbury maidens are always quite good and competitive. I would say Newbury hosts some of the best 3yr+ maidens in the country behind Newmarket, I was there for Eagle Top’s debut. I would say you still get decent racing with good field sizes, although I have found down the years that it is as much a favourite’s track as you will find. In fairness to Newbury it is a much better National Hunt course, absolutely perfect for it, and I just adore Hennessy day all round. I do dislike quite a bit about the course though. For one, the main grandstand is an eyesore, I mean take the Dubai Duty Free banner away and it’s just plain ugly. I am also not fond of how it comes across as a drinking course. Too often scores of about 20-30 year old men just stand in the heart of the grandstand drinking until they are completely out of control and then begin to cause not only trouble for the stewards but help to drag down the reputation of the course. I can remember police horses having to get involved to stop a fight right in the middle of a mile handicap towards the end of last year. And for what more, drinking is all the course likes to promote. Just look at the questionnaires they include in the racecards. There isn’t one question about the racing (ie, would you like more races on the round course, which I would) and more about: did you find it easy enough to get food and alcohol. The parking could do with some seeing to. Recently, I parked down by the furlong pole and had to drive 4 times further to get out of the course because the stewards were prioritising members. I now park on the other side of the green, about a 10 minute walk from the course.
But if Newbury could do just one thing that I asked: please knock down the silver ring stand. That part of the course is only ever used for parking these days and the top of it means that when you stand towards the far end of the grandstand (which I like to do) then you cannot see beyond the 5 furlong marker.
It is still my nearest racecourse after Salisbury though and so I continue to support it to that end.
Lockinge? It will never leave Newbury, and I am happy about that. And if it were to leave, then I would say it might be nice to have a mile Group One at Haydock instead, maybe Doncaster?
Tough, but I think Ryan Moore is the best all-round flat jockey I have ever seen. I am convinced that he has won more races on horses just by being the jockey than Dettori has, percentage wise that is. And he is just so hard to get the better of in a finish. I must admit as to being a bit annoyed with Dettori’s ride on Hillstar in the Hardwicke. The horse wouldn’t have won anyway, and I’m not miffed from a betting perspective as I thought he was a great each-way bet, but I think that ride showed that the Italian’s a bit tactically inept.
Do you know what would have been interesting, and if I owned the horse I would have seriously considered it, Taghrooda running today. That would have thrown the cat among the pigeons and she would have had a great chance. Balanchine won the Oaks and then Irish Derby in 1994, I don’t know who if anyone had attempted it since.
13:30 – Splash Of Ginge (reserve: Vaniteux)
14:05 – Rock On Ruby (reserve: Champagne Fever)
14:40 – Fruity O’Rooney & Tour Des Champs (reserve: Alfie Sherrin)
15:20 – Hurricane Fly (reserve: Our Conor)
16:00 – Highland Retreet (reserve: Quevega)
16:40 – Herdsman (reserve: Merlin’s Wish)
17:15 – Attaglance (nap) (reserve: Grandad’s Horse)Let’s get ready to roar!
I completely agree. I went up again this year and was bitterly disappointed when I stood next to Beecher’s Brook. No longer any drop. These fences are too easy to jump and although it’s not nice to see horses hurt themselves, 50million people watch the race because there are so many fallers and the race is such a challenge. Now the horses can hit a fence and stay up. The worst mistake of the whole race was made by Away We Go at the first ditch where he actually smashed into the fence and would have gone arse over tit in last year’s race but somehow survived and managed to help set a fast pace which changed the race. Racing should fight back. These fences are too easy and now it’s no longer a jumping test but rather just a test of extreme stamina. If it carries on this way one year there will be no fallers, the race will lose its identity and nobody outside of Britain and Ireland will watch. Heck only two horses actually fell during this year’s renewal.
20:06 – CEILING KITTY
20:46 – FAME AND GLORY
21:28 – SPRING VENTURE
22:08 – BEHOLDER
22:48 – THE FUGUE (NAP)
23:30 – ROYAL DELTAEach-way Twice Over at 16/1? Given the horse’s great form at the the course and a promising run in the Eclipse I like the chances of this bet coming off especially if the rain stays away. Two wins from four starts at the Knavesmire, with one defeat by half a length in the 2010 renewal of this and the other when third in the 2008 Dante behind decent horses Tarten Bearer and Frozen Fire. The horse certainly brings his best form to the course and at this time of year having 3 wins from 5 starts in August/September throughout his career. Despite the fact that St Nicholas Abbey has won a Group 1 at a mile and the Juddmonte is an extended 10 furlongs, a drop back to this trip worries me. The Ballydoyle Ace has come just third and second on his two starts over 10 furlongs and I’m still not convinced Joseph O’Brien can quite ride him to the best of his abilities. A hold up horse who can out-sprint horses over 12 furlongs but over this distance I can’t see him coming from behind Frankel who’ll kick on at about two furlongs out. The only way I can see Frankel getting beet is if a horse makes Frankel have to go past them in a fight and St Nic’s not a horse than can do that.
13:45 – Colour Squadron
14:15 – Sprinter Sacre
14:50 – Zarkandar
15:25 – Tullamore Dew
16:15 – Cappa Bleu + Shakalakaboomboom (NAP)
17:05 – Dream Esteem
17:35 – PopulationReserves:
13:45 – Simonsig
14:15 – Australia Day
14:50 – Oscar Whisky
15:25 – Battle Group
16:15 – Ballabriggs
17:05 – Paintball
17:35 – The New One14:00 – Prospect Wells (NAP)
14:30 – Champion Court
15:05 – Forpaddytheplasterer
15:40 – Frankie Fig + Tartak
16:15 – Gullinbursti
16:50 – Art Professor
17:25 – Call Me A StarReserves:
14:00 – Darlan
14:30 – Silviano Conti
15:05 – Albertas Run
15:40 – Always Waining
16:15 – Cotton Mill
16:50 – Dare Me
17:25 – Umadachar14:00 – Smad Place (Reserve: Restless Harry)
14:30 – Hinterland (Reserve: Grumeti)
15:05 – Riverside Theatre "NAP" (Reserve: Burton Port)
15:40 – Keanan’s Future + Cloudy Lane (Reserve: Boxer Gorge)
16:15 – Edgardo Sol (Reserve: Astracad)
16:50 – Al Ferof (Reserve: Menorah)
17:25 – Buena Vista (Reserve: Oscar Prarie)
