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Corals have put odds up for the Eclipse and have The Fugue in at 9/4 favourite.
Full list is:-
The Fugue 9/4
Night Of Thunder 11/4
Verrazano 4/1
Noble Mission 10/1
Kingston Hill 14/1
Mukhadram 14/1
Dank 16/1
True Story 16/1
Tullius 20/1
Ambivalent 25/1
Arod 25/1
Hillstar 25/1
Trading Leather 25/1
Okovango 50/1
Side Glance 50/1
Ektihaam 66/1
Elkaayed 66/1
Just The Judge 66/1
Somewhat 66/1
Hall Of Mirrors 100/1
Zambucca 150/1If you could trust The Fugue to be at her best I would think she will take the beating. Night Of Thunder looks tight enough trying a new trip and older horses. Noble Mission fans will probably see 10/1 as insulting.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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I’d have Arod and Noble Mission at the prices!
All depends on the ground, obviously. If the rain returns, that 10-1 about Noble Mission won’t last.
Of course you’re only getting 10/1 Noble Mission because it is unlikely to be soft enough for him. But if it was 10/1 would look generous. On the other hand, if The Fugue turns up she’s likely to be a lot shorter than 9/4 imo. Judged by the BBC Weather website there is no more rain forecast at Esher until next Friday and Saturday, and that only a shower or two. Can’t see it being any worse than good ground. Just taken the 9/4.
Value Is EverythingNoble Mission won’t run.
War Command has opened up at 6/1 after O’Brien’s comments.
The Fugue shortened to 7/4.
I may change my mind by the day, but I can’t see myself taking 7/4 or shorter about The Fugue.
Everything was perfect for her at Ascot, down to the running of the race and I would just fancy taking her on at Sandown.
At the prices? I don’t like Verrazano at 4/1, and that’s best odds. I fancy him going off at 13/2 on the day and I wouldn’t take that either. I think he’ll be as good at 10 furlongs but he just lacks that killer turn of foot you need to win an Eclipse.
War Command in all fairness needs to step up on what he’s done and I think stepping him up to this distance is a bit of wishful thinking.
Kingston Hill would be interesting, but he saw out the Derby so well I think he’ll be done for tactical speed in a 10 furlong Group 1.
True Story is interesting but you’re basically betting blind given his last performances (excuses, excuses).
Dank? I don’t see running, they should eye calmer waters.
Tullius would have a chance if there is a deluge of rain, otherwise it’s place money.
Hillstar and Trading Leather are both interesting, very interesting. I can forgive Trading Leather his run at Newmarket, he’ll come on bundles and his form from last year’s Juddmonte International will see him in good stead here. Hillstar I think is just as good over 10 furlongs and would have a great chance of perhaps nicking a few lengths round the bend. I would love to see Hillstar to the fore and it’s easy to come into the Sandown straight with a fair advantage. Neither would start at 25/1 come the day if they line up.
Arod I would have to back if he ran. I think 10 furlongs will see him to his best and a lovely fast pace for him to come off would be ideal. Value at 25/1.
But at the prices. I will back Mukhadram each-way all day at 14/1. He has never run a bad race and was unlucky not to be second last year. His form from Meydan is very good and he just wasn’t made the most of at Ascot, they will make the sole running with him at Sandown and I expect him to be in the best possible form he’s ever been in. The Fugue bounced back from Meydan brilliantly but not all do, I think Mukhradram may have needed the run to bring him on a bit and I think he’s guaranteed a first 3 finish.
Of course, come the day I may see sense.
War Command is a silly price. He is still trading on a reputation forged more than a year ago at Royal Ascot. I don’t think they really know what to do with the horse and this seems a bit more of a shot in the dark following disappointments, rather than an actual plan of attack.
I’ll lay True Story all day for this, I don’t think he’s anywhere near the horse Keiren Fallon talked him up to be. A lot of money went on him for the Derby after his Fielden win but that hasn’t been a Derby guide in recent years and so it proved again. The only horse to win from that Fielden race was Barley Mow and he was well beaten in two races after that. The second horse in the race, Obliterator, has stunk the place out with two last place finishes since, including on his supposedly beloved fast ground.
Mukhadram was famously denied by Al Kazeem last year and the Stewards didn’t help him out. His last career win was a somewhat workmanlike performance when 4/9 favourite. He may be an each-way shout but I just wonder if his heroic efforts in defeat behind Al Kazeem has actually left both horses a bit below their best since. Trainer William Haggas has also struggled to do much dining at the top table in recent times, so that is an additional concern.
Verrzano may well run a decent race but hasn’t quite struck me as top class yet. His stable ensures he will never go off at big odds and 4/1 seems tight enough.
The ground may well be against Kingston Hill and if they run him on quick ground after pulling him out against Australia for the self same reason, the clucking noises and chicken wing flapping will be the order of the day.
Night Of Thunder lost no caste behind the superb looking Kingman but if you analyse the stats for the Hannon stable their strike rate starts to tail off after you exceed a mile in trip. I would be concerned whether he can show the speed he did at the finish of the Guineas over the extra distance here. If he wins this we will all be saying "Well which other horse could mow down Kingman and Australia" but I’ll oppose him and take the egg on the face if it arrives.
The Fugue looked as good as ever last time out and there are only two concerns in my mind. One is that she has managed to get beaten when everything looked primed for a win. You can argue William Buick wasn’t at his best in the saddle on occasions but my biggest concern of all is that she was last of 7 in the last renewal. Said to be wrong that day, she bounced back to take revenge on Al Kazeem but it is a slight concern nevertheless.
She should take the beating if in full health and the stable have been having an excellent year, with probably the best two horses in training at three that do not go by the name Australia.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Night of Thunder is an interesting runner as even before his 3 year old season began he was being talked about as a 10f horse. The Fugue is rightfully favourite and will go off a shade of odds on if the suns stays out, so 15/8 betvictor is the play.
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You’re right Nath Night of Thunder is very interesting but the issue is his price which to me is unbackable.
Gutted that Arod is out, but in all honesty the extra time off will do him some good and hopefully he’ll learn and mature at home until his next run.
At the prices the only one I really like is Trading Leather who has his fair share of question marks but at 25/1 is worth the punt.
Will probably save my bigger bets for either the Group 3 Sprint or the Listed Fillies race on this card, the 1m handicap Prince of Johanne won last year is a good race too but looks tricky this year.
I don’t think war command running is a shot in the dark as coolmore will have learnt from declaration of war and war commands style of running suggest 10 furlongs could be his best trip. A truly fascinating race and one you could make a case for a number of horses.i think mukhadram looks the value bet to me too with as you can imagine war command each way.
I’m leaning slightly on the side of NOT now. The Fugue as brilliant as she was as Ascot does tend to be a tad inconsistent, think it was SteveCaution who pointed out her record when going off a short price and re-watching the St James, NOT ran a crack from the front and if Kingman is the wonder horse then NOT has put in some good races included winning the guineas, anything achieved over the mile is probably a bonus as the step up to 10f could well be the ideal trip for NOT.
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What a difficult and intriguing race, think I’ll stick with Trading Leather e/w.
The Fugue looked mightily impressive at Royal Ascot, posting a very good time, and will have the ground conditions very much in her favour.
If both she and young Mr.Buick are in a winning mood then look no further.
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Looking for a bit of value I’ll go for True Story at 14s, Fallon is too experienced and knowledgable to be a bad judge of horse and he gave glowing reports in the Spring. Surely he’s much better than his dull run in the Dante and think the Derby was a bit too far. Think back on faster ground he will go close.
If ever there was a race that depended entirely on the weather then this is that race. The forecast changes by the hour and latest reports seem to suggest there will be some but perhaps not enough to dissuade the fast ground lovers.
For me it is simple. If the ground stays decent and The Fugue runs to her Ascot form then there is only one winner. She is pure class and this is her trip and these (at present) her conditions. There have been genuine excuses for her poor runs and, if you take them away, she has actually been really consistent. In fact in her last 6 races her form figures read 1,1,2,2,11,1 and she was unlucky with at least one of those 2nds. She has not been aggressively campaign and I see no reason why she shouldn’t run her race unless it rains too much in which case she probably won’t run anyway. So, for me, if she runs she wins.
Of the others obviously the first and biggest danger is NOT. Ever since Nath pointed this one out to me at the end of last season I have been a fan and I actually backed him to beat Kingman in the Greenham. Obviously I was then livid when he beat Kingman in the Guineas as I certainly didn’t see that coming and hindsight shows that that was probably not the correct result. My problem with NOT and the Eclipse is that it is an afterthought and I really don’t like it when trainers run their horses in races as an afterthought. Let’s be honest, if Kingman hadn’t trounced him in the Sussex would they even be thinking about stepping him up at this stage? I personally doubt it. This was a horse that started off over 6f and I think he will be found out in a top class 10f race coming up that hill.
The same sort of comments apply to AOB’s two. He is guessing with War Command who has entries in the sprint races! He stayed on past tiring horses in the Sussex but was strangely lacking a turn of foot when it mattered. I can’t see him staying the 10f. Verrazano is a very good looking colt but his two races over 10f hardly give you confidence that he will stay the distance on a hilly track like Sandown. Besides I don’t see this horse having a turn of foot.
If it DOES rain a lot I see Kingston Hill winning comfortably. His actions was made for soft ground and his form is rock solid. There are no doubts about his stamina it is just a question of whether he will have the speed of The Fugue if the going is fast. I would be surprised if he didn’t start fav if the rains really come but once again my worry would be that this race is an afterthought and my guess is that 12f is his correct trip given decent ground.
I like Trading Leather and I expect him to run well if it stays firm as the race should be run at a decent lick with the exposed Mukhadram likely to have more use made of him. Finally True Story is a horse liked by Kieron but he has been very disappointing the last two times and would have to produce a massive career best to win this.
In summary this race looks a lot easier than the POW that The Fugue won so easily and she must be hard to fav as long as it doesn’t P1ss it down!
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What was her excuse in this last year Joni? I didn’t even know she ran in it but noticed the other day she finished 7th of the 7. I was having apple juice with Gord at the time…..
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There is more than one way to look at the stats though Joni.
The Fugue has started favourite seven times in her career and won only once with the dreaded BF on the other six occasions.
I expect her to win if the ground is sound though.
They can’t give Night Of Thunder away and he is 5/1 now. Kingston Hill has a fair bit to make up with him on their Guineas running but is actually shorter in the betting now. I think 9/2 is very short for the Derby runner up.
War Command is available at 11/1 now, somewhat more realistic than the 6/1 nonsense earlier in the week. He seems to my eyes to be a jigsaw piece being tried in various expensive jigsaw puzzles, when he perhaps fell out of a box with Woolworths written on the side.
Godolphin may be perusing the "Little Book Of Excuses" as we speak in anticipation of another below expectation effort from True Story. Much as I respect Fallon’s experience, jockey’s are notoriously poor tipsters and my eyes tell me this horse is not the next Dubai Millennium some expected he was.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What was her excuse in this last year Joni? I didn’t even know she ran in it but noticed the other day she finished 7th of the 7. I was having apple juice with Gord at the time…..
Her blood count was all wrong after Nath.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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