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All at Cheltenham
13.15 – Highway One O One
14.25 – Valtor
15.35 – Midnight Shadow (Nap)Res
13.50 – Siruh Du LacKempt 2.40 – Cotswold Way (Nap)
Kempt 3.15 – Bally Longford
Kempt 3.45 – EddiemauriceI was on Carole’s Destrier to win the Mandarin and won’t desert him now, despite the fact he’s far from consistent these days. On peak form he’s still well handicapped.
Colin Tizzard has been doing very well in recent weeks and I think Sizing Codelco is overpriced on his past performances. He ran a cracker when last seen and arrives fresh.
I’ll also give a chance to Ibis Du Rheu as I think he’ll relish the trip and could creep into this.
Carole’s Destrier 11/1
Sizing Codelco 16/1
Ibis Du Rheu 15/2I quite like Cotswold Way here. Although he hasn’t been winning by far, the form has been quite solid and he’s been doing it the hard way from the front. Stamina won’t be an issue and he hasn’t found himself on too harsh a handicap mark. He’s going to relish conditions and I think the course will suit. I think he’s a fair e/w punt at 14/1 given William Hill are paying out 6 places.
Kloud Gate at 7/2 looks like he has to be backed given on what he’s been doing this season and I also feel Doux Pretender is likeable back at this trip/ground.
Cotswold Way 14/1 (each-way)
Kloud Gate 7/2
Doux Pretender 7/1At the moment for me Native River looks the most likely winner. He’s run well at tracks which don’t play to his strengths and every other horse has big questions to answer about whether they could handle the trials of a Gold Cup – he doesn’t.
There’s still plenty to see before March though so I think it’s probably best to make up your mind come the day.
I wouldn’t overly want to trust this form although Sharjah was impressive and Supasundae has run his usual game race. Melon looked a bit undercooked so may be an overreaction to say he’s a lost cause for the Champion Hurdle.
I think it’s less a case that Samcro needs fences a more a case that he needs 3 miles and the easier the ground the better. Look at the staying power he showed to win the Ballymore.
I can see him running in the Stayers Hurdle.
I took 40/1 (e/w) about Coneygree a few weeks ago and am quite happy to be sat on that bet now and have just been rumbling about looking for a main win bet.
Native River was comprehensively beaten by Tea For Two when he ran in the Kauto Star 2 years ago and 3 miles on good-soft ground round Kempton isn’t like a battle through the mire in the Gold Cup of last season or the Welsh Grand National the season before that.
Bristol De Mai’s form away from Haydock leaves a bit to be desired and was allowed to have things fall perfectly for him in the Betfair Chase, which is unlikely to happen here with Coneygree likely to force the pace.
On peak form Clan Des Obeaux has a bit to find for all he hasn’t been disgraced through his career so far and Double Shuffle is looking very hard to win with these days, as is Tea For Two.
I might well have backed Politologue if he was a bit longer priced (no better than 11/2 at present). He has a 100% record at Kempton and the form from Ascot looks red-hot. The big question mark is the trip and he looked a non-stayer when well beaten behind Yorkhill in the JLT of 2017.
I personally think that Waiting Patiently will stay this trip and he seemed to relish the track when hacking up at Kempton on his sole visit here. It’s no secret the problems connections have had with him though and for me the price has gone.
Might Bite has hit 7/2 and that was enough for me in the end, at much shorter I’d oppose him but I’m a firm believer in forgiving a horse one bad run, excuses or otherwise. He loves Kempton and was spared a hard race at Haydock. He’s run a few weird races in defeat before and always bounced back with a bang, so I’ll be hoping for more of the same.
I just have a couple of qualms about the mare. The main one is that she seems to have been comfortably found out every time she’s found herself in a field of this quality. I’m also well aware that she put in one of her less impressive victories on her only start at Kempton (admittedly over hurdles) when just edging out Jer’s Girl who has since been hammered out of sight in every race. For sure she’s been impressive on her two starts over fences so far but I’m not convinced about the state of the form.
Of course, Bags Groove has his own questions to answer but how could we not be impressed with what he’s done so far this year. He won over hurdles at this course and his jumping is always going to have others under pressure. I think he’ll enjoy the tests of Kempton a bit more than Santini who seems more of a grinder to me. The trip is a question mark but he’s been finishing his races out well and to the eye, the form looks fairly solid albeit not many have run since finishing behind him in his races. I took 11/2 from Paddy a couple of days ago and am happy to sit with that with a saver on the favourite.
It amazes me that Charlie Appleby (Group/Grade 1 wins in England, Ireland, France, USA, UAE & Australia) isn’t winning this.
Not wonderful news to hear that Harry Fry has yet to commit Momella to the Long Walk.
“She’s come out of it fine, thankfully. We don’t really know quite what would have happened, so we’ve given ourselves the option. There is a mares handicap at Kempton the day after Boxing Day as an alternative. We’ve yet to sit down with the owners and finalise whether we go on Saturday or wait for the handicap. I suppose it depends on what others might run on Saturday and the forecast.”
Long Walk Hurdle – Momella – 2pts win – 8/1 with Unibet
King George – Coneygree – 1pt e/w – 40/1 with Paddy Power
I still think Might Bite is the most likely winner of this race if he turns up in form and gets into a rhythm. Those ‘ifs’ have more than been put into the price (3/1) and I’d rather wait until what the vibes are nearer the time before having a punt on him.
The only horse I’ve backed at the moment is Coneygree at 40/1 (e/w). Connections said they were coming here straight after his brilliant Cheltenham run on ground that was probably livelier than he would’ve wanted. That was a red hot race in hindsight and he was giving plenty of weight away. If he can be left alone in front, which I think he probably will then I think he’s massively overpriced if a return to a track he performed so well at in the past puts some spark back into him.
Coneygree 40/1 (e/w 3 places with Paddy Power)
21 entered at the moment but a plethora that in my opinion wont run (Faugheen, If The Cap Fits, Samcro, Sutton Place, Top Notch, Apples Jade, Benie Des Dieux) and plenty that are unlikely to run (Lil Rockerfeller, Soul Emotion, The Dutchman, West Approach) so I can see it being worth taking a punt on ante-post.
I really like Momella here. I felt she was really coming into the race when she fell 3 out at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle in which ‘Harry won. When I see that he’s 7/2 second-fav behind a horse (Call Me Lord) who not only has never run at the distance/course but will also be having his first run for 238 days then I see value in the Harry Fry mare at 7/1. She get’s the all-important 7 pound mares allowance and I think she’ll be backed on the day.
Momella 7/1 (each-way 3 places with Bet365)
He did come up quite short when tried at the top level last season but, as said, age is on Frodon’s side. I think he’s a bit better with some cut in the ground and sees his races out well so maybe a tilt at the Cotswolds in January? I’m sure connections must be thinking about giving 3 miles a go at some point.
