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Obviously a very strong entry, bolstered by potential big names from Ireland, but obvious question marks over who, if any, will travel…..
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/long-walk-hurdle/winner
On that Sandown run, Call Me Lord looks a deserved favourite, while Paisley Park looks decent AP Value at 8’s.
I’d love to see Sam Spinner win this again, but although there was the obvious excuse for Cheltenham, the Aintree and Newbury runs were very poor.
I could make a case for Top Notch at 10’s, but at 33’s, it’s The Dutchman who stands out. I honestly think that’s too big, but can’t possibly bet right now, as he’s been pulled from a few other engagements lately.
No bet then for now, but if playing right now, it would be…
Paisley Park 8’s Win
The Dutchman 33’s EWLil Rockeferller appeals at 25s. The trainer has mentioned that they might send him back hurdling for this race as he has “Unfinished business” in this race.
21 entered at the moment but a plethora that in my opinion wont run (Faugheen, If The Cap Fits, Samcro, Sutton Place, Top Notch, Apples Jade, Benie Des Dieux) and plenty that are unlikely to run (Lil Rockerfeller, Soul Emotion, The Dutchman, West Approach) so I can see it being worth taking a punt on ante-post.
I really like Momella here. I felt she was really coming into the race when she fell 3 out at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle in which ‘Harry won. When I see that he’s 7/2 second-fav behind a horse (Call Me Lord) who not only has never run at the distance/course but will also be having his first run for 238 days then I see value in the Harry Fry mare at 7/1. She get’s the all-important 7 pound mares allowance and I think she’ll be backed on the day.
Momella 7/1 (each-way 3 places with Bet365)
I have to agree with Charles here!! IMO MOMELLA would have won but for falling two out behind harry last time and at twice the price has to be the value!!
Raymo61 I was at Newbury watching the Long Distance Hurdle very closely because of a personal interest and, in my view, MOMELLA could not possibly have found the pace, after 3 miles,to win that race. Even Harry Fry agreed with that analysis. That is not to say that she will not win at Ascot but, in my view, she did not get into a position to win at Newbury.
Agreed- she’d have had to be a very very game mare to win from her position IMO. Good mare all the same.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!By the way she was only half a length behind Harry when she fell and had not been asked for maximum effort.
Anyway I digress and don’t want to get into an argument about it. Suffice it to say that I disagree regarding MOMELLA and we are all entitled to our views guys.
Not wonderful news to hear that Harry Fry has yet to commit Momella to the Long Walk.
“She’s come out of it fine, thankfully. We don’t really know quite what would have happened, so we’ve given ourselves the option. There is a mares handicap at Kempton the day after Boxing Day as an alternative. We’ve yet to sit down with the owners and finalise whether we go on Saturday or wait for the handicap. I suppose it depends on what others might run on Saturday and the forecast.”
Long time fan of Paisley Park, he wins this, then goes fav for the World Hurdle + does what Sam Spinner couldn’t!
Haha, dreaming but fingers crossed.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Thanks, Bobby. Just backed The Mighty Don EW at 33 – won’t start at the price as an improver with Johnson up
SOUL EMOTION looks the big improver to me and at 9/1 has to be worth an interest to me!
It is interesting Hendo has left three in this and the other two Call Me Lord ( who doesn’t look like he wants three miles) and Top Notch ( who has been chasing and probably doesn’t want three miles ) Both look like they are in for pipe openers. Agrapart wants heavy ground ,Paisley park is a possible but might not get the pace he needs to show his best ,Sam Spinner has been disappointed so far this season and I would have to see a big improvement before backing him ,Younevercall doesn’t look good enough to me and West Approach and Garo De Juilley look to be swimming in deep waters here.
That leaves the aforementioned Soul Emotion Uknowwhatimeanharry and The Mighty Don . the form does tie in with those two and TMD has to find about four lengths which is reflecting in the price differential!!
But as I have said SOUL EMOTION at 9/1 is the one for me
God this is an awful field. Top Notch at 12/1 and West Approach at 40/1 are both value bets in my opinion
Good luck Joe with The Mighty Don.
Smashing horse, who I’ve bet a couple of times at Cheltenham, with no luck. I then had to watch him gub Sykes on the line a few weeks ago. That was a hard one to take.
The good news for you is that I’ll be sitting this one out, and just cheering on Sam Spinner, but good luck with Don.
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