King George 2018

The betting prices on this race are complete madness.

Might Bite won one of the worst quality KG I can remember, he did not win it easily. Twice beaten by Native River, he finished last on his latest run, yet he is favourite at odds between 5/2 and 3/1. So tell me the last winner of the KG to finish last in his prep race?

Waiting Patiently currently on offer at odds between 4/1 and 5/1. He may be unbeaten but what has he beaten? He beat a way past his best Cue Card age 12 by a couple of lengths and the handicapper took the form literally on Cue Card’s best form and gave WP a rating of 170. Not guaranteed to get the trip, no prep race, huge step up in class. So tell me the last winner of the KG who had not had a prep race? He may win it but if he defies all these obstacles he will be a deservedly favourite for the Gold Cup. If you fancy him for this then you must surely take the 33/1 currently available for the Gold Cup.

Politologue currently trading at odds between 9/2 and 11/2. An admirably tough and consistent horse but unlikely to get home in a race run at a furious pillar to post gallop. Giving a half length beating and 6 pounds to Charbel is not the form of a KG winner, particularly as Charbel may well have won given a better ride by his Jockey. He will travel well with his excellent jumping for the first couple of miles, if you fancy this one then far better to back it and then lay off in running.

Thistlecrack currently trading at odds between 6/1 and 15/2. A brilliant horse at his best, he clearly has retained some of his form but he is rising 11 and is not as good as he was. He finished behind his stable mate Native River last time, they will both strip fitter for the run but I see no reason for the form to be reversed.

Bristol De Mai currently on offer at between 6/1 and 8/1. If this race was at Haydock he would be a clear favourite as he shows form at least a stone better there than anywhere else. In last years race he was more fancied than this year and was sent off a 3/1 shot after he beat Cue Card by an astonishing 57 lengths at Haydock but finished a well beaten 6th. History has a habit of repeating itself and it will be no surprise to see him do the same again.

If Coneygree (currently trading between 25/1 and 33/1) can avoid the bounce and show any improvement on his last run then he has every chance of making the frame. Worth an each way bet or a back to lay.

Clan Des Obeaux currently at between 14/1 & 18/1 looks a fair each way bet but may have a better chance next year.

Double Shuffle and Tea For Two need a Foinavon pile up to have any chance.

Which leaves the highest rated, most successful in both class of race and prize money won, indifferent to the ground, has a 57% win to run ratio, never finished out of first 3 in any chase, has had a prep race,guaranteed to get the trip and has the champion jockey on his back. Still available at a general 6/1, should be half those odds, with all the doubts about the other runners, will probably shorten further in the betting by the time of the off and will probably have an SP of around 9/2.

Politologue (5/1 e/w), Coneygree (28/1 e/w) and Thistlecrack (13/2 e/w) for me

All 3 each way bets are 4 places – Skybet

Fascinating race. We got a great field, better then the last two editions. Quite a challenge to figure it out, I will give it a try.
Might Bite – Can’t have as a favourite is this field. Very poor ride in Haydock obvisouly. Also his win last year wasn’t that impressive when you compare the field to this years edition. All out to beat Double Shuffle and Tea for Two.
Double Shuffle – Surprising second last year. By far his best performance, basically a handicapper. Can’t see him hitting the frame in this field.
Tea for Two – Slightly better then Double Shuffle, but no real chance against these proper grade 1 horses primed for his race. Maybe stick on for 4th or something.
Clan des Obeaux – Decent races at Aintree and Haydock, only 6 years old. I can see him compete in a weaker edition of the King George, but not this year. At 25/1 he could be an interesting EW shot, but at 16/1 he is too short for me.
Coneygree – Promising run at Cheltenham last time. At 33/1 it is tempting, but I really wonder if he can improve at almost 12years old. I fear this dry ground around Kempton isn’t helping either.
Thistlecrack – Jumping has been a problem since his comeback. Ran three times and didn’t really competete in one of them. I wonder if they will consider the stayers hurdle if doesn’t shine here. At 7/1 he is too short for me.
Native River – One of my favourite horses. Backed him for both the Gold Cup and at Haydock. Just think a sharp 3 mile on good ground is not his cup of tea. Might bet him to be placed if he drifts on the day. Just can’t see him winning.
Politilogue – Although he is rarely done anything wrong I just can’t have him. He won some great races, but in my opinion that was by lack of real opposition. I also think he won’t stay the 3 miles.
Bristol de Mai – Surely has a lot to prove around a different place then Haydock. At 8/1 I will give him a chance to do that though. Also going by the words of Nigel Twiston-Davies that there are no problems with him this year.
Waiting Patiently – Finalle my main fancy. Waiting Patiently, such a fitting name. His last two stars were just very impressive. Won very, very easily against a decent field at Kempton and I think the Ascot Chase was something special as well. Frodon and Top Notch were completely blown away and I think Cue Card was close to his best. I think Waiting Patiently is the real deal and will win this.

Gone for:
Waiting Patiently 5/1 & a saver with Bristol de Mai 8/1.

I have to point out that Might Bite has been nearly a stone better horse on good ground compared to soft. Last year’s King George was on soft and that was his only win on it in his career on the surface.
Regardless of what happens this year had to clear that up. He won despite the ground last season.

The ground will be a big help to him on the 26th, no excuses. Whether he still retains the old ability remains to be seen.

Gone a bit Ginge here, am in danger of backing half the field!

Final bet is Native River at 6/1, he’s the solid bet of the race. So my 3 are;

Politilogue 9/1
Coneygree 35/1
Native River 6/1

Good luck everyone.

PS I’ll be glad when this Christmas nonsense is over and we can get back racing tomorrow.

Just blogged

Bristol De Mai is one of my all time favourites and would have garnered much more universal respect had his trainer made a better fist of handling him. Nigel Twiston-Davies finally admitted after the Betfair this season that he’d been at fault and that any blame for a poor performance from the grey this season would be down to him.

His biggest blunder, in my opinion, was sending the horse to the Cotswold Chase back in January – a well documented graveyard for Gold Cup horses (I see the winning trainer from that race has already said Definitly Red will miss it this year).
 
I strongly suspect Bristol De Mai needs a long rest between races. I think too that the secret to him is a proper galloping track. Kempton is too sharp imo, but defeat today would not affect his Gold Cup chances in my book, and I fancy him for that race if Twister leaves him at home and makes that big race the grey’s first of the New Year.

Thistlecrack, a past victim of The Cotswold Chase (remember that raw battle with Many Clouds, who did not survive the race?), has never been quite the same since. His best form lately was arguably last time behind Bristol De Mai in the Betfair. He didn’t have a flawless round of jumping but looked fresher at the finish than everything bar the winner, and Tom Scudamore was wisely kind to him when his winning chance had gone. I just don’t know what to expect of him here. He might like the ground better than most of these, (with the exception of Might Bite) but my guess is that there will be something of a bounce from Haydock.

When I saw Politologue go to post at Ascot last time, I went wow! He’s one of the most powerfully built chasers I’ve seen and symmetrical with it. He is a remarkable 7 from 7 right handed and has the talent to run a big race, but his stamina is unproven, and I think the pace and unrelenting gallop will find him out.

Kempton’s deceptive in this flat 3 miles; it’s easy to fall into the belief that speed horses can see it out. But it can be a brutal test of stamina with a strong pace from the outset, even on decent ground. In fact, goodish ground could exacerbate the stamina factor as they will probably go even faster from the start.
 
Choosing to drop out and wait for the others to run themselves into the ground can be a big gamble for a jockey. Hardened front runners like Coneygree, Bristol De Mai and Native River can hit a rhythm that can hold, even as they slow, all the way to the post. Coming from a long way back with perfect timing will be for the coolest only.

I wonder if Johnson on Native River will decide from the outset not to get into a battle for the lead?  The horse is a tempting price, based, apparently, on one poor run at Kempton and the fact that the ground might be good. Well, he’s won twice right handed by a big margin each time. And the official ground on the eve of the race is good to soft; he’s won 4 from 7 on that going and he has won on good ground (1 from 5 – placed in the other 4). I thought he ran a fine race at Haydock given that he looked beaten some way out and he is the rock solid horse here from a stamina viewpoint. Aside from the fact he’s a Gold Cup winner, Native River is remarkably consistent and he looks too big here at 6/1

Conversely, Waiting Patiently looks a poor price. I like him an awful lot and thought he was on his way to the top after that Ascot defeat of Cue Card. But any horse with the tactical speed he has is highly likely, in my view, to have trouble seeing out a fast run King George. That’s aside from the fact he hasn’t run for a long time. Hughes usually tries to switch him off and lob along and I just don’t think the pace will allow that today. He’s a safe jumper overall but can be a touch careful at times and if that happens here, he will lose too much ground. This race will test his jockey’s nerve like nothing else. Waiting Patiently has never raced beyond 21 furlongs and he’s trying to defy a 20-year trend here. Thirty horses who had not run over as far as three miles have contested the King George in the past 20 years; none has won.

Might Bite’s a bonny horse, but with a quirk or two. Henderson’s team spent a long time trying to iron out those quirks last summer and I wonder if they’ve cooled the flames a bit too much. The excitement has gone from him since his novice days. On the stamina side, I thought he travelled last time like he wanted 2 miles rather than a staying trip. Within that, perhaps there was a flash of his old front-running brilliance trying to get out, although Nico kept reining him gently back.

I’d love to see him return to battling for the lead from the outset, but his run last time and, arguably in the Gold Cup, suggested stamina is not going to be his strong suit. If Nico does drop him in again, even at a hot pace, Might Bite’s huge stride might see him having to be just eased back once or twice and that’s an energy sacrifice. Also, his trainer said he was frightened by hitting a fence last time. If that’s true, the last place he wants to be taking on a good field is in this cauldron. 

I cannot have Clan Des Obeaux, Tea For Two or Double Shuffle but I very much can have the 11-y-o Coneygree at 25/1. He has fewer than 7 racing miles a year on his clock and Cheltenham last time showed he retains the enthusiasm and the engine. This is the first time since his Gold Cup season I can recall him being trouble-free between two races. And on his only other appearance at Kempton he left the Kauto Star field in tatters, winning by a distance.  If you had to choose a track and trip on good to soft ground for the grandest of swansongs for Coneygree, this would be it. Kauto Star and Edredon Bleu won this as 11-y-olds in the past 20 years. I’ve backed Coneygree and had a saver on Native River.

Good luck
Joe

I took 40/1 (e/w) about Coneygree a few weeks ago and am quite happy to be sat on that bet now and have just been rumbling about looking for a main win bet.

Native River was comprehensively beaten by Tea For Two when he ran in the Kauto Star 2 years ago and 3 miles on good-soft ground round Kempton isn’t like a battle through the mire in the Gold Cup of last season or the Welsh Grand National the season before that.

Bristol De Mai’s form away from Haydock leaves a bit to be desired and was allowed to have things fall perfectly for him in the Betfair Chase, which is unlikely to happen here with Coneygree likely to force the pace.

On peak form Clan Des Obeaux has a bit to find for all he hasn’t been disgraced through his career so far and Double Shuffle is looking very hard to win with these days, as is Tea For Two.

I might well have backed Politologue if he was a bit longer priced (no better than 11/2 at present). He has a 100% record at Kempton and the form from Ascot looks red-hot. The big question mark is the trip and he looked a non-stayer when well beaten behind Yorkhill in the JLT of 2017.

I personally think that Waiting Patiently will stay this trip and he seemed to relish the track when hacking up at Kempton on his sole visit here. It’s no secret the problems connections have had with him though and for me the price has gone.

Might Bite has hit 7/2 and that was enough for me in the end, at much shorter I’d oppose him but I’m a firm believer in forgiving a horse one bad run, excuses or otherwise. He loves Kempton and was spared a hard race at Haydock. He’s run a few weird races in defeat before and always bounced back with a bang, so I’ll be hoping for more of the same.

Waiting patiently for me. Has oozed class in his traveling and jumping and has hardly been stretched at all. His ascot win was as fine a performance as we saw last year

I’m very wary of might bite and I’m not one to easily forgive a “last bad run” without a very convincing excuse. I love native river but feel this cannot be his track. Same with bdm. Politilogue is undoubtably the biggest threat in my mind although would be delighted to see thistlecrack win.

Have to agree with Buckers MIGHT BITE at 9/2 is/was huge and as he is my current cliff horse I had to back him

Lets hope the race lives up to its billing