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Native River does look over-priced although I think much of his chance will lie in how the race is run. I don’t think he cares much to be hassled for the lead and with Coneygree and Bristol De Mai there, Dicky might do best to drop him in just behind them and make sure he holds his position long enough for his stamina to come into play.
I think an awful lot of Waiting Patiently but he’s a silly price, and I’m not convinced he’ll stay this trip at a hot pace.
Been looking at this race over and over tonight, and finally came to the same conclusion.
I just can’t leave that 7’s for Native River myself. Plenty in his favour, as already mentioned, and he just looks overpriced. Long term fan of the horse, and with NRNB on the go now, I had to have a decent swing at him.
Coneygree is riskier, but we know he loves it round here, and his run last time was highly impressive. Yes, he’s thrown in a few below par runs, but he’s some horse on his day, and that NRNB changes everything for me.
With Black Corton cashed out, I’d been left with what to do with my early Waiting Patiently bet? No way was I giving up all of that early price, so a lay at 6’s seemed sensible.
Could lay off a bit more, but not convinced that Waiting Patiently will shorten too much now.
That’ll do me.
Waiting Patiently 14, 16’s (Laid 6’s)
Native River 7’s NRNB
Coneygree 33’s EW NRNB* Might Bite
* Politologue
* Waiting Patiently
* Thistlecrack
* Bristol de Mai
* Native River
* Clan des Obeaux
* Tea for Two
* Coneygree
* Double Shufflewill fight this out.
Sea Pigeon
“He has won going right handed, in fact he has a 100% record going right handed winning 2 races at Exeter.”
Think you need to check his form again. Native River’s worst round of jumping i have seen came at this very track in the Feltham.
He could be a tad over priced though.To be fair to NR, as a young horse he made regular mistakes and also took some stoking at times. Much better on both counts these days although there were some signs last time when he couldn’t have everything his own way of his younger traits.
Topped up on Bristol De Mai at 13/2 yesterday, I’m hoping that this could
be his year. I’ve also added an e/w with Coneygree at 33/1, I think he’s
very decent value at those odds and although he’s 11 going on 12 there’s not much mileage
on the clock having only run a half dozen times since his gold Cup win in 2015. Still plenty
of 33s about for anyone interested.Native river, thistlecrack and coneygree for me
I can’t have might bite at all, I think waiting patiently is unproven, it took him long enough to pass an old retiring cue card on his last run.
Bristol has yet to prove it outside of haydock
Politilogue has yet to prove it at the distance
Clan does obeaux is the improver and could be anything but again not much solid evidence
Double shuffle came second last year but I think it was more of a fluke
Tea for two is a solid 160-165 horse, but that won’t be good enough here
Gonna watch them jump the first 3 fences and the 2 horses I’m looking for are Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack. If Thistlecrack jumps the first 3 well then I’m gonna back him. He made up serious yards between jumps at Haydock; obviously his jumping was terrible so if I get some evidence that he has improved his jumping then I’ll chance 6/1. If BDM jumps well and Thistlecrack doesn’t then I’ll chance BDM; either way I feel I need to watch the first 3 fences before I commit.
I have an Antepost slip with 9/1 Politilogue (mentioned earlier in the thread), think he’s the right price now and I’m hopeful of a big run.
I’m going to throw another dart at it. Native River and BDM both look over priced, struggling to choose. NR the more solid choice but BDM has the ability to blow them all away if he’s on song. Decisions decisions, going to open a bottle of claret and see if that helps!
Becoming increasingly convinced Coneygree is massively over priced here. If you had to design a race for a fit and well Coneygree (he’s had a wind op and now wears a tongue tie) it would be this one.
Just backed him at 35’s (boosted) Joe, ran a cracker under top weight first time out, his one run at Kempton was a 40 length romp.
He has it all to prove of course but yes I agree he’s well over priced.
TC is a careful jumper that spends a little too much time in the air and whilst his ability compensated for that when he won his KG, injuries I feel have taken that edge from him to the extent that he can’t afford to be giving ground away at his fences.
I can see Coneygree going real hard from the front (as I think he needs a bit further than 3m these days) and I think BDM might go with him but could likey be out jumped by Coneygree – NR I think might enjoy the fact that he doesn’t have to do his own donkey work (he took a lead in the Welsh National for the first 10 fences) and I can see Johnson going on full attack going to the last down the back.
Any horses with stamina issues will be well and truly found out up that home straight as it is likely going to be a real war of attrition and that will play into NR hands as the superior stayer in the field.
I will be shocked and stunned if Coneygree wins a good ground King George with the problems he’s had.
Native river for me
Im firmly in the camp that he wont have been fine tuned LTO and BDM would have, will come on a tonne, cant see BDM being able to keep up with NR jumping alot sharper this time and i cannot have might bite after that LTO, politologue and waiting patiently wont stay behind a horse like NR, thistlecrack was flattered LTO
Will be having a small native river/double shuffle REverse forecast
Dont like anything in this bar those two
With a back to form Coneygree setting a strong pace i can easily see this race being shot to pieces by the time they turn out of the back straight. BDM could possibly lay up on slower ground but does have a tendency to get in tight to some of his fences. No doubt about it, this is the best King George for years and you can run the race through your head dozens of times and get a different result.
Coneygree 33/1 and BDM 8/1 for me
My take on the race…
Bristol De Mai – surprised me last time so cant totally rule out but suspicion is that Haydock is his track.
Clan Des Obeaux – improving horse but will need a career best.
Coneygree – fragile these days has had his problems. Over this trip on good ground would be a surprise winner for me.
Double Shuffle – career best in this last year but not replicated since. Hard to fancy.
Might Bite – ran a shocker last time but if back to form a player.
Native River – gold cup winner could run well but possible this sharper track right handed on good ground will find him out for win purposes.
Politologue – going the right way, with top connections, and if he stays has to enter calculations.
Tea For Two – on the ratings has a lot to find. Probably not good enough.
Thistlecrack – former winner of this race who will have to improve his jumping to have a say. Each way player if he does.
Waiting Patiently – could be a future star but first time out on good ground I will pass him over for this. May not run because of the ground anyway.Verdict – in an open race with all the field having a question or two to answer its Might Bite who is taken to bounce back from his Haydock run and complete the King George double. Politologue could be the main danger.
Merry Christmas.
Coneygree at 40/1 is my only bet in the race after Altior’s withdrawal. Happy enough to stick with that. Was half tempted to top up, but it’s such a strong race I’d rather sit and enjoy it rather than approach it with a betting mind.
If I was to add another it would be Thistlecrack who really struck a chord with me with his Haydock run. First run since Boxing Day and looked much more like the horse of old. Race fit and conditions to suit makes him a real contender.
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