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Last year’s heroine Treve is out until September according to connections. She is said to have pulled muscles at Ascot and connections believe they can get her back to her best in time to defend her crown. That has to be a concern and I think 7/2 with Paddy Power for the Arc looks skinny in the circumstances with more potential flies in the ointment than there were last year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wouldn’t mind having a nibble on Telescope at double figure prices; perfect hands with Stoutey and would be fancied if gets good ground.
Backed Sea The Moon at 150s and 85s on Betfair after win on Sunday, looks German Derby bound before Prix Neil and Arc.
Great bit of foresight JJM, have you layed any of it off?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Backed Sea The Moon at 150s and 85s on Betfair after win on Sunday, looks German Derby bound before Prix Neil and Arc.
Great bit of foresight JJM, have you layed any of it off?
No not a penny fella. Going through the race there’s little against him at the mo. I don’t fear Treve and don’t think Australia turns up. Taghrooda and the three Japanese runners look the likely runners and I’ll probably back the filly should she indeed turn up on the day.
Always be wary of fast improving French fillies in the arc. It’s amazing how many have won the arc having been unheralded a few months before the race. Btw any news on treve.
Seems like Sea The Moon will not run the
Grosse Preis von Baden
, that’s at least what is discussed in German forums. He might be injured… Rumours …
Sea The Moon backers must be dribbling by now. Australia is far from a certain runner and Taghrooda has just been beaten, so Sea The Moon’s own fitness/mind must be the only real worries.
What about Avenir Certain?
Five of the last six Arc winners were 3-years-old and the last three were fillies.The arc is et up for an improving French filly to win the race. Too many doubts on other contenders. Treve has been forgotten about but could go close if her trainer can do a tapestry with her.
Australia won’t run and that King George form suddenly doesn’t look too cracking does it?
On See the Moon at huge odds and these rumours are a worry – where are they coming from?
On See the Moon at huge odds and these rumours are a worry – where are they coming from?
The rumours are about Sea The Moon not to start in the
Grosse Preis von Baden
, which he was (is) supposed to do.
The owner recently said he would not start, if the ground would be wrong…
http://www.pferderennen-international.de/klassiker/preis-baden-2014-english.phpIn Germany’s most important forum several people say they are sure he will not run:
http://www.galopper-forum.de/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=4446&start=300The odds on this race are pretty strange too (200 percent)
https://www.racebets.com/de/pferdewetten-online/race/details/id/1078838/Sea the Moon "fit & well"
according to the Baden Baden website(29/08)The Grosser Preis has been a useful pointer to
the arc in the past but you’d want to see
the field well beaten to justify the hype.Lucky Lion was as short as 5/4 for the Grosser Preis but you can get 7/2 with Racebets now. That would seem to squash the notion that something is wrong with Sea The Moon.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power have put up odds for Sea The Moon in the Grosser Preis and they are way shorter than Racebets 4/5, with a price of 1/2
One of them has it badly wrong and anyone who took the 5/4 on Lucky Lion must be on a ventilator now that Paddy Power go 9/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power have put up odds for Sea The Moon in the Grosser Preis and they are way shorter than Racebets 4/5, with a price of 1/2
One of them has it badly wrong and anyone who took the 5/4 on Lucky Lion must be on a ventilator now that Paddy Power go 9/2
I have heard from a very reliable source that Sea The Moon will be around 70% for the weekend so Lucky Lion has to be some value there surely?!
Paddy Power have put up odds for Sea The Moon in the Grosser Preis and they are way shorter than Racebets 4/5, with a price of 1/2
One of them has it badly wrong and anyone who took the 5/4 on Lucky Lion must be on a ventilator now that Paddy Power go 9/2
I have heard from a very reliable source that Sea The Moon will be around 70% for the weekend so Lucky Lion has to be some value there surely?!
He has a dickens of an amount of ground to make up though. I think Sea The Moon’s Arc chance will be seriously holed below the waterline if he doesn’t win this race. He doesn’t need to be at his best to win and I am sure a more modest winning margin will be acceptable, with the knowledge he won’t be at his peak until Arc day. Defeat however would be a huge cause for concern and I always take these % fitness statements with a pinch of salt.
Lucky Lion beat Noble Mission but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The Lady Cecil horse was busy early season and his battling win from Magician on the mud doesn’t look as good now as it did then. Magician has been disappointing this year and still managed to make headway to finish nearer a tiring Noble Mission than looked likely at one stage, on ground that the stable were pretty loathe to run on. Noble Mission went on to try the same tactics in France but got mown down and it happened again against Lucky Lion.
Noble Mission is a group 1 winner but it was a small field where everything was really in his favour and against his main opponent. He had previously looked short of top class and it could prove he doesn’t win in Group 1 company again. He’s had some tough races this year and the stable have been pretty quiet overall the past couple of months.
On the day Noble Mission broke slowly from his draw and couldn’t get to the front, which has seemed key to his performances this year. He then had to race wide and I think there are enough reasons not to rate the form too highly.
It’s a game of opinions but I reckon Sea The Moon needs to win reasonably well, despite the fitness question, to warrant being favourite for the big day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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