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Arc is wide open and the likes of ruler of the world are not without a chance though it is asking a lot of the horse after such along lay off. Tapestry to me looks the value if ballydoyle decide to go there instead of the breeders cup.
I like Tapestry too but she is very ground dependent and would only run if it came up fast.
The forgotten horse for me is
Ectot
. He is all class this horse and beat subsequent French 2,000 Guineas winner Karakontie on his seasonal debut only to pick up a minor injury and miss the big race. Perhaps the injury was more serious than first thought as he hasn’t run since but he has been given an entry in the Niel next week. I find it interesting that they only entered him in this race and not in either the Moulin (8f) or the Dollar (10f) on Arc weekend. Connections clearly think he will get a mile and a half and if he does, he has to come into. Watch him on You Tube, he is a fine, big colt who goes on any ground and is a Group 1 winner. You can still get 50-1.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The Moon was eclipsed and is now 10/1 for the Arc.
It shows plenty about the waning opposition that Treve, on a recovery program, is getting into the position of clear favourite.
I have topped up on Taghrooda at 10/1, as I feel there was an overreaction to her defeat last time out. If Tapestry had not been in the race we would have seen an unbeaten 7 length winner heading the betting at about 3/1 for the Arc. Tapestry is a good horse and Taghrooda had a hard enough race in the King George that also seemed to take a toll on Telescope and Mukhadram.
I’ll applaud Treve loudly if she bounces back but it is still a question mark in a muddied looking betting heat.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think that most of these defeats have been greeted with major overreactions. Injuries and lack of fitness explain many.
The only one beaten fair and square and shown to be not good enough for the Arc was Taghrooda – and any alternative explanations for that loss seem rather fanciful, especially after her King George form was undermined so badly.
I don’t have a firm idea of my winner yet, but would be happy to consider the rest of the beaten market leaders.
I think that most of these defeats have been greeted with major overreactions. Injuries and lack of fitness explain most of them.
The only one beaten fair and square and shown to be not good enough for the Arc was Taghrooda – and any alternative explanations for that loss seem rather fanciful, especially after her King George form was undermined so badly.
I don’t have a firm idea of my winner yet, but would be happy to consider the rest of the beaten market leaders.
You can write Taghrooda off as not good enough if you wish but I believe she has achieved more than Sea The Moon in winning an Oaks and a King George. Sea The Moon won by a wide margin in The German Derby but outside of that has nothing else that would scream Arc Winner at you. The idea that Sea The Moon was so unfit yesterday, and that that was the sole reason he put in a disappointing show, is at least as fanciful as the consideration that firmer ground may have stopped Taghrooda showing her best in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Bookmakers are usually as tight as a frog’s bottom when it comes to pushing out horses in an ante-post book where they have previously seriously cut them in, so it has to be a concern that he swiftly went out to 10/1, totally in variance with the connection’s opinion that he had run a satisfactory trial.
Treve at peak form would be a warm favourite but she is shortening up here for negative reasons surrounding her potential opponents, rather than having shown she is back to her best.
Australia seems highly unlikely to run and the same applies to Tapestry. Muddy conditions may help Sea The Moon but I can’t see him doing it otherwise and he really needed to win comfortably yesterday for me.
I am happy enough with Taghrooda and may back Treve as a saver nearer the time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think there are some interesting outsiders and you may see a big shift in the betting after this weekend’s trial races. My 50-1 about
Ectot
now looking good as he has halved to 25’s and I see there has also been money for
Gallante
. With doubts over most of the principals I think there is value to be had.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Alleged remains one of the great horses for me and his two arc wins were both very easy. He was a unique horse in that he only ran twice in his second season before winning the arc. Was rated 138 which shows how good he was and it will take an amazing training feat by Madame head for her to win although the arc doesn’t look as strong as previous years. Ruler of the world each way for me if he runs well on Sunday.
Is it just me, or is Tapestry the obvious one for the Arc at bonkers odds?!?!
Aidan O’Brien trained and he seems to have moved Australia away from the Arc picture/distance to focus on 1m 2f.
Tapestry was their big 1000 Guineas hope – and was favourite for that – but was clearly not there early season.
Then ran in Coronation over 1m at Ascot and had no sort of run "coasted home" about 3 lengths off winners.
Last 2 runs, over 1m 4f have been astonishing. Fast finishing, close 2nd in Irish Oaks, despite saddle slipping some way out, then powered past Taghrooda (who was then Arc fav), some 7 lengths clear of the rest. Specifically Tasaday, where there is a clear line with Treve.
I can’t see why AOB wouldn’t want to run in the Arc and round off the "proving how good she really is" after a troubled/unlucky start to the season.
If she had not run in the Guineas, not had trouble in running in the Coronation, and saddle not slipped at the Curragh, she might well be one of the favs for the Arc!
Or am I missing something…?
Treve is early priced 4/7 for the Prix Vermeille this weekend. This is make or break time for last year’s runaway Arc winner and the market will be in a fair old stooshie if she fails to convince.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Just A Way has to be in with a great shout, seems the forgotten horse over here!
Indeed – Just A Way is the best horse in the world on official figures at the moment too.
Is it just me, or is Tapestry the obvious one for the Arc at bonkers odds?!?!
Aidan O’Brien trained and he seems to have moved Australia away from the Arc picture/distance to focus on 1m 2f.
Tapestry was their big 1000 Guineas hope – and was favourite for that – but was clearly not there early season.
Then ran in Coronation over 1m at Ascot and had no sort of run "coasted home" about 3 lengths off winners.
Last 2 runs, over 1m 4f have been astonishing. Fast finishing, close 2nd in Irish Oaks, despite saddle slipping some way out, then powered past Taghrooda (who was then Arc fav), some 7 lengths clear of the rest. Specifically Tasaday, where there is a clear line with Treve.
I can’t see why AOB wouldn’t want to run in the Arc and round off the "proving how good she really is" after a troubled/unlucky start to the season.
If she had not run in the Guineas, not had trouble in running in the Coronation, and saddle not slipped at the Curragh, she might well be one of the favs for the Arc!
Or am I missing something…?
Good post and I have to agree. The problem is she is very ground dependant. In fact I think her likely destination after this weekend is The Breeders Cup where she’ll be guaranteed her ground. If they knew Paris would stay dry I think they’d be aiming her at the race no question and you DO have to aim your horse for a race like this. Saying that it is fast ground at Longchamp at the moment and the forecast is set fair for the time being so you never know. It’ll be fascinating to see how she does back over a mile this weekend. A surprising call for me that.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think tapestry is running over a mile to support champions weekend in Ireland. Should the going be good on arc day then coolmore have a call to make. The arc or the breeders cup. I think on good ground she has the speed to challenge for the arc but will end up at the breeders cup.
- Total Posts 764
Treve is early priced 4/7 for the Prix Vermeille this weekend. This is make or break time for last year’s runaway Arc winner and the market will be in a fair old stooshie if she fails to convince.
I think 1 of either 2 things has happened with Treve
1) She’s just not as good as she was last season
2) She’s been targeted at the ArcDue to my thinking, a loss this weekend wouldn’t put me off backing her at all, mostly because she’d likely drift in the market.
Treve is early priced 4/7 for the Prix Vermeille this weekend. This is make or break time for last year’s runaway Arc winner and the market will be in a fair old stooshie if she fails to convince.
I think 1 of either 2 things has happened with Treve
1) She’s just not as good as she was last season
2) She’s been targeted at the ArcDue to my thinking, a loss this weekend wouldn’t put me off backing her at all, mostly because she’d likely drift in the market.
I think the Arc was always the main target Ben and there was no disgrace in going down narrowly to Cirrus first time up this year. The next race was much more worrying though and for that reason I think there is much more to this traditional trial than just putting the polish on her for the main target.
Going back to last season I felt Treve had a bit to improve to win the Arc and I have to admit I was stunned by how easily she ultimately won. Mick Fitzgerald declared the form was rock solid but I wasn’t so convinced that the race was as strong as some had believed it was. I was pilloried in some quarters and told that every horse in the race would have to have run below form for Treve not to be an exceptional winner.
Racing is a game of opinions and none of us are right anywhere near all of the time. We can all argue the merits of the form and how we choose to interpret it is very individual. I love the simple barometer that winners will emerge from races with strong form and by this measurement we can see that there have been 35 runs from last season’s Arc. Out of this there are only two horses who have won since. Gold Cup hero Leading Light has won three times and Al Kazeem has won a weak looking group 3 from the disappointing True Story, after being beaten in a listed race first time. OK, some horses haven’t run since but if we take the Cup horse and the horse on the comeback trail who
have
won out of the equation, the Arc form isn’t worth a hill of beans to my eyes.
It will be very interesting to see how Treve runs on her return and if she puts up a good show she will no doubt shorten to a warm favourite for an Arc double. I would worry that this year’s race may actually be a bit stronger than last season’s once touted "Vintage Renewal" and the record books show that horses don’t normally record back to back wins. It also concerns me that they feel the need to kick the beehive and jock Frankie off the horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have been reading all posts here back and forth – including my own ramblings about Tapestry – and the objective fact is that it seems to be the most muddled Arc market for a long time.
Treve is only fav by elimination frankly…
Australia is probably a wonder-horse, but allegedly won’t run.
A few drops of rain will seemingly keep Tapestry away.
Sea the Stars form looks a bit wrong…
Its an unknown trip for Sole Power
Other horses in the race beat each other depending on which way the wind is blowing.
Only one to seemingly have pretty bombproof credentials is Taghrooda of course.
I’m on Taghrooda and Tapestry ante post.
If good going, I’ll do the rvs f/c on the two
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