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PS. Shocking error there. Apologies!
I think we can all agree that the form for Sea the Stars is actually quite solid.
Sea the Moon’s form is rather more hazy…
Horse beaten a street in the German Derby beats Noble Mission next up, who beat Magician in the Tatts’ Gold Cup, who is a very good yardstick?
Form tied in with Telegraph there too.
PS. Shocking error there. Apologies!
I think we can all agree that the form for Sea the Stars is actually quite solid.
Sea the Moon’s form is rather more hazy…
Horse beaten a street in the German Derby beats Noble Mission next up, who beat Magician in the Tatts’ Gold Cup, who is a very good yardstick?
Form tied in with Telegraph there too.
Surely that German Derby form looks suspect now though? He raced on the other side of the track and there has to be the possibility that it gave him a big advantage.
I thought he looked quite one paced.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The tie in with magician is a bit dubious. The heavy ground suited noble mission and magician couldn’t quicken on it. On good ground magician would have hacked up and noble mission has been well placed to win its races. Sea the moon has it all to do in the arc and I agree that tapestry and taghrooda look the ones to be on if of course tapestry goes there. The form of the Yorkshire oaks looks rock solid to me and taghrooda probably ran to her king George form but was beaten by a rapidly improving filly with the rest of the field nowhere,the sign of an honest result.
PS. Shocking error there. Apologies!
I think we can all agree that the form for Sea the Stars is actually quite solid.
Sea the Moon’s form is rather more hazy…
Horse beaten a street in the German Derby beats Noble Mission next up, who beat Magician in the Tatts’ Gold Cup, who is a very good yardstick?
Form tied in with Telegraph there too.
Surely that German Derby form looks suspect now though? He raced on the other side of the track and there has to be the possibility that it gave him a big advantage.
I thought he looked quite one paced.
Watching Sea The Moon running last time I was struck by the way he ran with his head bowed like a real 2 mile plus stayer. It looked to me that Ivanhowe quickened up past the German Derby winner, rather than the lack of fitness taking it’s toll on the favourite, causing him to tire in the closing stages.
A single spectacular run is always worth being cautious about until you see a repeat that is similar.
Magician hasn’t run remotely near his form of last season’s two best efforts this season in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea The Moon has had a setback and is out for the rest of the season.
Hard luck to JJM Sports who was on at a massive price. That was a great piece of foresight and you deserved a run for your money.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is it just me, or is Tapestry the obvious one for the Arc at bonkers odds?!?!
Aidan O’Brien trained and he seems to have moved Australia away from the Arc picture/distance to focus on 1m 2f.
Tapestry was their big 1000 Guineas hope – and was favourite for that – but was clearly not there early season.
Then ran in Coronation over 1m at Ascot and had no sort of run "coasted home" about 3 lengths off winners.
Last 2 runs, over 1m 4f have been astonishing. Fast finishing, close 2nd in Irish Oaks, despite saddle slipping some way out, then powered past Taghrooda (who was then Arc fav), some 7 lengths clear of the rest. Specifically Tasaday, where there is a clear line with Treve.
I can’t see why AOB wouldn’t want to run in the Arc and round off the "proving how good she really is" after a troubled/unlucky start to the season.
If she had not run in the Guineas, not had trouble in running in the Coronation, and saddle not slipped at the Curragh, she might well be one of the favs for the Arc!
Or am I missing something…?
With Tapestry having shown much improved form stepped up to a mile and a half you had to wonder about the logic in stepping back to a mile today. She ran dismally today and perhaps it was her turn to show the effects of a hard race last time out, as may have been the case with the horse she beat last time Taghrooda, who had won a King George against older colts on her previous start.
Not O’Brien’s finest hour there for me anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Between Moore putting value on the Ballydoyle horses and Joseph taking it off again I bet Aidan does not know whether he is coming or going.
I like the Jean-Claude Rouget pair,
Avenir Certain
and, in particular,
Prince Gibraltar
.
Avenir Certain is unbeaten in six starts with two classics to her name. Obviously the twelve furlong distance is an unknown, but she settles well and has a blistering turn of foot. Her trainer gave a glowing recommendation when he stated ‘she reminds me of Zarkava’.
Prince Gibraltar is something of a forgotten horse. He landed the Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a juvenile (Hartnell held) and started as low as 2/1 when favourite for the Prix Du Jockey Club. There was a lot to like about his performance when a fast-finishing third behind The Grey Gatsby that day (given too much to do), and he finished in identical fashion when runner-up in the Grand Prix De Paris, narrowly failing to catch Gallante (Prix Niel bound).
He would almost certainly stay even further, but he also has one almighty kick at the end of his races and is versatile ground-wise.
The Grey Gatsby’s defeat of Epsom Derby winner, Australia, in the Irish Champion suggests there may not be a lot between the respective 3YOs this year and, with four out of the last five renewals going to the classic generation, including three fillies, Treve certainly has a challenge to retain her crown.
Ectot!!! Beast!!! Would he be better off going for the Champion though?? Trainer said they had left plenty to work on though……
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ectot!!! Beast!!! Would he be better off going for the Champion though?? Trainer said they had left plenty to work on though……
Impressive turn of foot from Ectot but was it a lack of prime fitness, or stamina that saw him come back to the field late on?
We knew he was the fastest horse in the field today and the fact that he was favourite despite the stamina question says he probably wasn’t facing top notchers today.
ATR commentator Jason Weaver questioned whether it was a rare poor ride from Ryan Moore on Adelaide in finding a lack of room at a critical stage before finishing strongly. I am not sure any error was due to where he had the horse placed but more a question of not getting after his mount a bit sooner. If Ryan had rear view mirrors and saw the way Ectot was moving behind him, I think he may have shovelled the coal on a bit earlier. Perhaps he felt he had those in front of him covered and didn’t expect the surge through by the favourite.
A really good trial from Ectot but would he win a soft ground Arc against better opponents. A vulnerable looking Australia might be a tempting target to aim at in the Champion stakes as you suggest Joni.
He’s 10/1 for the Arc now and a huge looking 16/1 for the Champion stakes. Obviously the travelling is a question mark.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Treve still reported to run, would’t be keen to take the 8s on offer mind..
Treve is 10/1 in a few places now and I wouldn’t touch that. She is entitled to improve for today’s outing but the brutal fact is that John Gosden’s filly Pomology is a 110 rated horse and Treve was supposed to have
twenty
pounds in hand on the ratings.
Even allowing for some improvement by Arc day today’s run was nowhere near good enough and if the old jockey back on board was supposed to create a spark, it was a damp squib they got instead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After al those rumours concerning Sea The Moon’s well-being after his spectacular Derby-win (did Soumillon stop the horse too harshly after passing the line, is there a chip in STM’s shoulder?), now we have a definite, but very sad news:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd? … category=0
Nevertheless: STM’s lucky star has come down, unexposed and lightly raced Ivanhowe’s star is rising after all those setbacks of other major Arc-candidates. And what’s about Baltic Baroness (GER-bred, FR-trained) after Sunday’s Vermeille?
Will there be a match between JAP and GER on Arc-sunday on softish ground?
The 3-y-o just don’t seem very special this year to me, may be an older horse will win this time.
And I agree with parlo on Ivanhowe. This was Nick Mordins comment about Ivanhowe in
2013
:
"Ivanhowe is not entered in the Arc. But if he does what I think he’ll do by taking the Deutsches Derby and Grosser Preis von Baden impressively his connections will surely consider supplementing him for the race. His combination of stamina and acceleration would make him ideally suited to Europe’s top race."
http://www.nickmordin.com/germany.htmIvanhowe became injured during the Derby 2013 and had a long break afterwards.
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