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Two big concerns surrounding Taghrooda. Did she give up her Arc chance to win a King George and the old chestnut about Hanagan. Yes, he has had a few bigger wins this season but for me he remains very much a journeyman jock and a journeyman jock with little or no experience riding around Longchamp. It is likely to be a large field for the Arc and if Hanagan gets ‘lost’ in the first couple of furlongs it could well be game over. How easy would it have been to send him over on a few Sundays?
On paper Taghrooda didn’t have much to prove in the Yorkshire Oaks. Of course Tapestry upset that theory.
However, is there any real reason why it didn’t make more sense to give York a miss, give Taghrooda more time to recover from the King George and then run
her
in the Prix Vermeille with, or instead of Pomology/Sultanina?
The Oaks winner could then have got experience of the track and the jockey an education into the bargain. 3yo’s have won all bar four renewals of the Vermeille and Treve used the same race as a successful springboard last year.
It seemed a logical path for me, does anyone know why the Yorkshire Oaks was deemed a better option?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would guess they thought what looked a penalty kick Group 1 wasn’t to be sniffed at – isn’t the Sheikh chasing the owner’s title? – and the Vermeille might prove a stiffer assignment with less recovery time for the Arc. The Vermeille is often used as a stepping stone by the steady improver rather than a filly who might already have reached her peak.
Very long term I suppose they might have thought a peak form Treve might be turning up in the Vermeille but it became clear on Treve’s second start that there may be a problem with her.
The team had already eschewed a "penalty kick" by swerving the Irish Oaks in favour of the King George and it just seemed to me to be an option that would have given a full dress rehearsal to all involved had they run in the Vermeille.
Considering that Taghrooda is about a stone superior to Pomology, there can be little doubt that she would have won the Vermeille and probably have beaten Treve a fair way on the day.
Plenty of punters will no doubt expect Treve to strip a lot fitter for the Arc but she will need to.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like the Jean-Claude Rouget pair,
Avenir Certain
and, in particular,
Prince Gibraltar
.
Avenir Certain is unbeaten in six starts with two classics to her name. Obviously the twelve furlong distance is an unknown, but she settles well and has a blistering turn of foot. Her trainer gave a glowing recommendation when he stated ‘she reminds me of Zarkava’.
Prince Gibraltar is something of a forgotten horse. He landed the Criterium de Saint-Cloud as a juvenile (Hartnell held) and started as low as 2/1 when favourite for the Prix Du Jockey Club. There was a lot to like about his performance when a fast-finishing third behind The Grey Gatsby that day (given too much to do), and he finished in identical fashion when runner-up in the Grand Prix De Paris, narrowly failing to catch Gallante (Prix Niel bound).
He would almost certainly stay even further, but he also has one almighty kick at the end of his races and is versatile ground-wise.
The Grey Gatsby’s defeat of Epsom Derby winner, Australia, in the Irish Champion suggests there may not be a lot between the respective 3YOs this year and, with four out of the last five renewals going to the classic generation, including three fillies, Treve certainly has a challenge to retain her crown.
Avenir Certain comes here with a similar look to Treve last year, in that she has done nothing wrong but has a couple of question marks. A slight doubt on the quality of form, for me anyway, and the extra distance to cope with as well.
They say you can only beat what you face and that is true, but it equally applies that potential improvement is not guaranteed and when something is co-favourite and there are doubts, I normally pass.
It is harder to get excited about Prince Gibraltar. Don’t get me wrong, he’d be a welcome winner for me because he was an early shout for me in this race. I saw potential improvement for him over 12f and had a few quid on early at 25/1 in what looked an open year. It was not so much that he was my pick for the race, more a case of a good voucher to have come the day.
Not much went right for the horse and he was deemed unlucky a couple of times. Matt Chapman seemed to be carrying a torch for the horse on ATR and reckoned he’d be joint fav after supposedly having too much to do in the French Derby won by The Grey Gatsby. Again given a supposedly less than inspired ride next time in the Grand Prix De Paris, he turned the form around with The Grey Gatsby (who probably hated the combination of extra distance and soft ground) but failed narrowly to catch Gallante, a 33/1 shot.
When next seen Prince Gibraltar went off second favourite behind John Gosden’s Western Hymn when dropped in class and trip. This race saw an incredible live on-air loss of faith from big fan Matt Chapman, who delivered a rant that declared he had had belief in the horse, thinking he had been ridden poorly and been unlucky, but that the truth of the matter was that "The horse is a pig"
The race was also notable for the Groundhog Day moment of William Buick on Western Hymn. Earlier this year when he was unimpressive on soft ground at Sandown it was stated that the horse could not use his turn of foot on the soft surface. Guess what happened when the jockey was faced with soft ground again on the same horse? Yes, you have sussed it, he rode the horse for a turn of foot. Would you believe it, the horse still couldn’t quicken on soft going.
I can’t really see Prince Gibraltar being up to it at all. He was 25/1 when I placed my bet way back then and you can get 33/1 now, which sort of tells its own story.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
So two weeks to go and the betting is as wide open as I can remember for many years. I was pleased to read Tom Segal write today that Ectot is by far the most interesting and exciting horse in the race and that his Niel win was extraordinary. Obviously with my 50-1 and 25-1 vouchers I am bound to be as biased as he admits to being but I have watched the race back several times now and you have to say he is right.
The move he made around the field turning in was reminiscent of You Know Who in the Royal Lodge and I think it probably took Benoist by surprise too as I am sure he hit the front way earlier than he would have liked. UNLIKE Frankel he did absolutely nothing when he hit the front and the question has to be asked was he being lazy or was he running out of stamina? Well a glance at his form and at the only other race I can find of him on You Tube tells you that he has never won by far. Equally though he has never had the kitchen sink thrown at him. In the Niel it looks for all the world like he will be swamped but he finds more when Teletext gets to him. Clearly he will have to be delivered later on the big day but I think he will get the trip on reasonably decent ground.
Obviously the ground will be key to several chances but Ectot has excellent form on soft ground so it is just a question of stamina.
For me, if his stamina DOES stand out, he will win this and I have a feeling we could be talking about an exceptional Arc winner. He has the speed to beat the French 2,000 Guineas winner over a mile and the looks of a superstar.
I am having another bet today on Kingston Hill. It rained in Paris this weekend and Longchamp is now soft. The weather forecast is for it to stay dry in the next few days but even so I am sure the ground will be on the easier side in 2 weeks. We have seen how good KH is on quick ground and I am sure he will be a lot better on the soft. 12-1 is a big price about a horse who has run really well all year and yet never had his ideal ground. He stays all day and has the nice long straight he needs.
So for me Ectot wins in breathtaking fashion UNLESS it is a mud bath in which case look out for KH!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Benoist has chosen Ectot over Avenir Certain. Wise little froggy!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The 3-y-o just don’t seem very special this year to me, may be an older horse will win this time.
Kingman, Australia, The Grey Gatsby, Taghrooda, Free Eagle.
Five there.
The 3-y-o just don’t seem very special this year to me, may be an older horse will win this time.
Kingman, Australia, The Grey Gatsby, Taghrooda, Free Eagle.
Five there.
Taghrooda may be the only one in the Arc though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Benoist has chosen Ectot over Avenir Certain. Wise little froggy!!!
I fully expected he would do that Joni. Apart from the stamina issue I thought Avenir Certain has a bit to prove on the form front as well. I think she’s a silly price at 5/1 with the question marks and the jockey having jumped ship. She should be double those odds in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Seems tapestry is going to longchamp but not for the arc. Doesn’t bode well for taghrrodas chances. Wonder why they aren’t going for the arc.
where did you hear that Edina?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Seems tapestry is going to longchamp but not for the arc. Doesn’t bode well for taghrrodas chances. Wonder why they aren’t going for the arc.
The same reason that they didn’t run Alexandrova?
The same reason that Fallon suggested (in 2008) that
Zarkava should run in the Prix de l’opera because the
Arc was a tough race for a filly?The same reason that only one of AOB’s classic winning fillies
has run against the colts in over 10 years?I’d be interested to know as well.
Aiden mentioned tapestry running at longchamp on atr after ol man rivers win today. The Great War might be abbey bound and Chiquitita and ruler of the world for the arc and glen eagles running as well. Presumably Joseph will be on ruler of the world as I’m sure he won’t make the weight on the filly. Didn’t realise that coolmore sold half of ruler of the world only of Joseph retained the ride. Loyalty indeed,
Thanks Edina. Perhaps they are also still keen on Breeders Cup F & M for Tapestry which is over 10f so the Prix De L’Opera is a stepping stone. And of course in the Arc they know there is a French horse they can’t beat!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think you are right Joni,to my eyes Ectot looks a very smart colt, his absence for the best part of the year could be a blessing in disguise come Sunday as he is a fresh horse and his target for some time has been the Arc.he travelled very strongly in the Prix Niel and stands to reason after a five month absence he tired in the last furlong,stable jockey has rejected an unbeaten Guineas and Oaks winner to ride him and I expect him to win on Sunday,think Harp Star if not given to much to do as she has in the past could be the one to follow him home
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