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The Good – Some will say Harbinger’s King George and other’s will say Frankel’s Queen Anne or even either of Treve’s Arc wins. However, my own ‘stunning moment’ has to be Danedream’s Longchamp stroll in the sunset. It is the only Arc I have attended and the way this mostly overlooked German filly sprinted away from the rest of the field was simply stunning. I think the fact that she was a 20/1 outsider enhanced its ‘stunningness’ so to speak. And it wasn’t a flash in the pan either, as she went on to win what was probably the best King George since Grundy vs Bustino.
The Bad – Although I was tempted to say that my bad stunning moment was Sprinter Sacre pulling up at Kempton or Denman’s defeat to Madison Du Berlais at the same place I’m going for one which perhaps nobody has thought of yet. Yep, I’m going for Zaynar’s shock defeat in the Morbattle Hurdle at Kelso in February 2010. The Henderson trained hurdler was undefeated in 6 outings including a Triumph Hurdle victory and easy 6 length wins in the Ascot Hurdle and Relkeel Hurdle so far that season. Already skinny in the ante-post markets for Cheltenham, Zaynar was sent of at 1/14 in a field of 4 yet somehow, in conditions akin to a marsh, went down by a length to Quwetwo, a 7 year old Howard-Johnson trained novice having his first run for 344 days and rated 35 pounds inferior to Zaynar. Although he went on to finish a modest 3rd in the Champion Hurdle next time out, Zaynar’s career was pretty much finished as his performances only proceeded to get worse finishing with a disappointing chasing career.
The Ugly – This has to go to the whip ban handed out to Christophe Soumillon after Cirrus Des Aigles victory in the Champion Stakes. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear – what a massive f”k up that was.
You can already get 7/4 about Sprinter for Saturday – me thinks he won’t run and the bookies know it.
First things first – I would like nothing other than for Sprinter Sacre to fly away from the field up the home straight on Saturday and go on to win the Champion Chase by half a furlong.
However, given the fact that I am going to have a bet in the race and see no reason to back Sprinter at 4/5, am not too taken with Dodging Bullets and have already had a bet on Somersby for the Champion Chase – I’m going to take a punt on Twinlight.
If for whatever reason Sprinter Sacre doesn’t run his race then the Irish chaser must have a chance if you take the view he’s never been better and conditions should be to suit. A small bet each-way at 9/1 will suite me fine. Hopefully Walsh will ride. If Sprinter wins then I’ll be delighted and ditto if Somersby returns victorious given that I’m sure odds of 33/1 for Cheltenham will disappear as quickly as the title hopes of Liverpool fans.
THE GIANT BOLSTER 1pt each-way @33/1 with Bet365
The ‘Giant’ simply comes alive one Friday in March every year and I’m thinking he’ll come third and so given that I think Silviniaco Conti will win and that I’m already set for a good return if Dynaste runs placed, this seemed the best ante-post selection for this.
I suppose Tea for Two was well handicapped eh?
Never mind, Saffron Wells ran how I thought for me to collect a decent place return. In hindsight I should have put him in an each-way double with Vandross up at Warwick, who I also backed at 25s. Neil King’s pair did me well today.
I’m pretty sure I’ll go for a decent each-way punt on Saffron Wells at 14/1 with Bet365 at the moment.
Neil King’s horses are going quietly well at the moment. Horses sent out since 13th December have run to the following places: 1 1 5 2 2 2 4 1 6 5 4 5 2 3 3 2 3 4 3 5 1 1.
I have seen this horse a few times without ever having backed him before. Last time out I was impressed with the way he traveled at Newbury before finishing a bit one-paced after the last to go down by 2 1/4 to the well handicapped Pomalco and the classy Morito Du Berlais. Likewise, he didn’t run badly first time up when finding 3 miles a bit too far at Aintree on ground better than he would have liked. He’s still lightly raced with only 7 runs over hurdles and never being outside the first 4. His best run to date came when 2nd in a Grade 3 Novice’s Handicap over the distance at Sandown last March. He ran off a mark of 126 and had the likes of Doctor Harper, Brother Brian and Ceasar Milan in behind that day. He’ll relish the likely soft conditions and while I’m not saying he’s a likely winner against improving opposition, he seems to have a massive chance of being in the frame of a nice racing weight of 10st 6ib. Hopefully Leighton Aspell can ride. He’s been put up 1 pound to 135 for that run.
I might have a win bet on Hammersly Lake. He looks to have plenty of potential and the trip and course should suit. He could prove to be badly handicapped but not as badly as Kilcooly is of 155. 9/1 looks fair to me given Geraghty’s sided with Dawalan.
I’m going to vote for Bath as worst racecourse of the year. I had one visit in 2014, back in May, disgusted at the view now that they’ve dragged down the stand I used to use. Not enough facilities and the members block was in the way of the finishing line.
Once more Kempton has been found not able to deal with the volume on Boxing Day – worst I have known it this year. From what I hear though, Chepstow was even worse the day after.
Newbury continues to annoy me. They just want people to turn up and get drunk which leads to singing over the commentary. Furthermore, the place is ugly. I will say that they have done a great thing by demolishing the old silver ring stand, which obscured the track from 7 furlongs and above.
Sandown agitated me as well by cutting down the hedge between the last and the open ditch – I can see why, but I thought it was iconic. Still my favorite jumps course.
Are PP NRNB? Seems odd being best price NRNB.
Not yet but they pushed him out to 10s a few days ago and I’m anticipating them going NRNB by February hopefully.
Expecting Dynaste to run in the Gold Cup I’m thinking of getting involved with Champagne Fever at 10/1 with Paddy Power NRNB. I hope Uxizandre runs in this rather than the Champion Chase as 20/1 looks tasty.
I wonder if anyone’s doing odds on a Faugheen winning distance?
One would be inclined to take anything above 9/2 on 6+ lengths.
I really think Somersby is overpriced at 33/1 given he ran a cracker in the race last year, has shown good form in the spring round Cheltenham and seems as good as ever following a nice run at Sandown. Given that it’s unlikely that Sprinter Sacre AND Sire de Grugy will turn up, he must have a huge chance of a top 3 finish. When you look at horses priced shorter than him, a lot surely won’t even run in the race: Al Ferof (Ryanair), Champagne Fever (Ryanair), Vautor (JLT), Simonsig (fit in tim?), Ballycasey (Ryanair), Eduard (might miss the festival all together). So that’s my thinking. If Sprinter turns up it will be a procession though. I have got ‘the black aeroplane’ involved in a couple of accas at 4s though.
I’m in for a great payout if Silviniaco Conti wins after taking 20s on him winning the King George & Gold Cup.
Straight after the King George I took 33/1 each-way about Dynaste.
I’m looking for one more bet in the race before the day and it’s between: Many Clouds (16/1), Lord Windemere (16/1) and Smad Place (25/1).
My thinking is that if either Many Clouds or Smad Place put in a good performance in their trials that the prices will collapse. Both Sherwood and King are quietly hopeful that their horses are in with a shout. I worry about good ground for Many Clouds and plainly whether Smad Place is good enough. Lord Windemere seems a better horse this time around than last by this stage of the season and comes alive in the spring so a saver at 16s might not be the worst bet in the world.
I don’t think I have ever been as involved in Cheltenham before February as this season. Hoping for a great meeting for the Irish.
SILVINIACO CONTI to win 2014 King George & 2015 Gold Cup (20/1)
DYNASTE 33/1 each-way in the Gold Cup
THOMAS CRAPPER 16/1 each-way in the Novices H’cap Chase
SOMERSBY 33/1 each-way in the Champion Chase (hoping none of the big guns turn up)
Rich Ricci to have 4 or more winners 14/1
Treble: FAUGHEEN (Champion Hurdle) + CHAMPAGNE FEVER (Ryanair) + PEACE AND CO (Triumph Hurdle) @ 71/1
Each-way double: TELL US MORE (Neptune) + HARGAM (Triumph) @164/1
1pt Each-Way on ARCTIC FIRE @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes (05/01/2015).
I’m pretty sure that Faugheen is a certainty but can’t see much value in 5/4 over two months before the big day.
Arctic Fire ran a cracker at the festival last year and has been campaigned as if he’s a very good horse this season by Willie Mullins. His latest run convinced me that perhaps 25/1 represents some value considering I’m pretty sure he’ll line up and 3rd place looks up for grabs if one of the so-called ‘big three’ don’t run to their best.
So about 8:45 Friday night I discover that Tom Segal has selected Chil The Kite at 18/1 with Corals and 16/1 with Bet365. Now at the same time I checked on Oddschecker and Corals are doing 11/1 and Bet365 12/1. Can someone tell me when these prices are available? If ever? It CANNOT be that they are solely being backed due to the ‘pricewise factor’ at 9 o’clock at night? When was 18/1 with Coral’s ever available? Perhaps Wednesday when the race was first priced up but it should say that if it’s the case and as it is I believe it’s just a matter of him letting the Racing Post know his selections Friday afternoon so that the bookies can shorten up the prices before a bet has been placed there and then. From now until the off, when will I see 18/1? Thanks for any thoughts.
On the race, I quite fancy Sirius Prospect to go close at 25/1.
I’ve talked myself into an each-way bet on Professor at 33s, although I’m a bit gutted as he was 50/1 earlier in the week.
3 wins from 4 runs at Haydock
4 wins from 8 over 6 furlongs
2 from 2 over course and distance
Conceded 9ibs to Baccarat when 2nd in the Wokingham and has preformed admirably in his 3 starts since, all over 7 furlongs.
I also like to fact he has only once been out of the first 3 in his 8 starts over 6 furlongs, and that was when coming 4th.
I may be wrong and his recent form will prove that he’s well below this standard but I’ve made bets like this in the past, the majority don’t come off but the odd one does so there you have it.
