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I’ll have 2pts win on Champagne Fever at 10/1 with Corals please.
I was tempted by the 33s offered about Ballynagour but I’m worried about his absence since Newbury.
It’s not very often that I somehow manage to complete nail it but I was grinning from ear to ear as Balder jumped the last. I had a very good bet on him last night at 3/1 and was happy enough to see him sent of at odds of 4/1 when I got best odds guaranteed. I even backed him again when I saw BetVictor offering 9/2 at midday. I was tempted by the 25/1 offered by William Hill for him to win today and at Cheltenham but I just can’t see him winning a Ryanair, today everything was in his favor. I may be wrong, but he doesn’t strike me as a festival winner.
I’m happy enough having backed Champagne Fever at 12/1.
Balder Success for this one. This is a perfect race for him and he’s a really classy animal. I’m also expecting to see some improvement in his next few runs as he has seemed to perform better as we get into the spring in past seasons. Ballycasey could easily win if bringing his a-game but is inconsistent to use a kind word and his reputation seems to be built around beating Don Cossack at Leopardstown this time last year, a horse who has improved more in his second season chasing than I imagine this Mullins inmate has. Radjhani Express is untrustworthy and Theatre Guide surely needs 3 miles to be seen to best effect. Ptit Zig looks to have more on his plate to defeat his more experienced competitors than Coneygree did last week. He may come up just a bit short like he did when pitched into having a crack at the Champion Hurdle last year. Ma Filleule may be the big challenger on last year’s spring form but I’ve hardly been taken with her performances this so far this season. I’m happy to take 3/1 about Alan King’s Ryanair hope but if the support keeps coming for Ballycasey then I can see Balder going off 10/3 maybe 7/2, or is that wishful thinking?
Back: Faugheen
Yes, boring I know but there really is no stopping the monster in Willie Mullins’s yard. I can’t help but remember how powerfully he ran up the Cheltenham hill last year. I’m convinced that they can’t go too fast for him and he could flatten every hurdle and win this year’s Champion running backwards. I’ve only ever been this confident this far off about a festival winner since Hurricane Fly’s first Champion Hurdle – and I wasn’t let down then and can’t see being let down this time. I was a mahoosive The New One fan in his novice days (backed him almost every race) but I just can’t see him ever winning a Champion Hurdle especially as I still believe if he was good enough he could have won last year. Hurricane Fly’s never liked Cheltenham and is too long in the tooth to win by class alone. The plan is the smash into the Machine to get the festival off to a flyer.
Lay: Sprinter Sacre
Let it be known that I do not lay horses, never had and never will. But given that I’m all over the Champion Chase with my ante-post, I’m in for a good profit if any of the leading principles bar the Henderson Goliath win. To that extent I feel I only have Sprinter Sacre to beat (Mr Mole is just a progressive handicapper in my opinion and can see him completing in his own time). I am, too, of the opinion that Sprinter Sacre was at about 95% fit for his return last month and that he simply is now too many pounds below his best to regain his crown although I wouldn’t mind too much if proved wrong.
Each-Way: Clarcam
I think he is a much better horse than his thrashing at the hands of the favourite last time out suggests. He’s a quality horse who should relish better going. There’s only Un De Sceaux to beat for this one in my opinion and who knows, there’s every chance Walsh could be sent flying out the saddle.I think Peace & Co will prove hard to beat but there’s no value to be had out of 2/1 and have struggled to be too taken with Henderson’s other prime contenders in Top Notch and Hargam. The Irish 4 year olds are too big a puzzle for me to bother solving with over a month to go therefore I’ll go for a horse with course form, who’s never run a bad race in his career and looks a smashing each-way bet given better ground ‘should’ improve his chances.
Karezak 1pt each-way @20/1 (generally)
I believe that if Sire De Grugy had of got round intact that he would have won well.
I’m going to stick my neck out and say that SDG is the my most likely Champion Chaser this year.
I’m in the Faugheen camp all day long on this one. He’ll jump into lead over the last to win as easily as Ruby lets him I reckon. I can see Jezki being the big danger but to probably fill the runner-up spot this time. The New One will be running on late, whether he’ll get to Faugheen’s hind quarters I somewhat doubt. I think Hurricane Fly’s last run showed the racing world that the champ still has it and is getting adaptable, perhaps he does still have a chance after all. But nonetheless Faugheen IS a machine and I don’t think there’s an end to his unbeaten run for a long time to come. I’m of the belief that if The New One was good enough he could have won last year.
I’ve always felt Paul Townend to be a very capable jockey, in fact I quite like him. I’ve slagged of a few of Ruby Walsh’s rides in the past but I don’t think he’s a bad jockey.
As much as I respect Many Clouds (especially after backing him to win the Hennessy) and would love to see Sherwood and Aspell team up to win a Gold Cup, I just don’t see him winning this year. He strikes me as a bit of a grinder and you need to be able to quicken well to win a Gold Cup these days (Synchronised and Lord Windemere came from afar). I would say that he’s bang on for a first 4 finish if not for his seemingly bad performance in last year’s RSA (he looked in trouble before coming down) and at Aintree behind Holywell. I think everything’s gone right for him in his races so far this year and I can’t see value in his current price. In fact I half-think that The Giant Bolster is likely to finish in front of Many Clouds come the day. For Many Clouds to win this I think he’ll have to be ridden the same way Denman was when he won, and Many Clouds doesn’t look like a Denman yet. I hope I’m wrong.
I see this being the year finally for Silviniaco Conti with Lord Windemere being the big danger, just because he comes alive at Cheltenham in March no matter what his form is throughout the season beforehand.
I think I’m the only one who’s going to be brave with their Arkle selection. I was tempted by Vibrato Valtat but think he’ll be rushed of his feet, I don’t see any value in Josses Hill and as much I like the look of 40/1 about Grumeti and Court Minstrel (that latter must have a chance on his spring form the past few years) I just doubt they’ll be good enough to sneak into the first three. So I was going to pick Smashing, but then I was told he’s more likely to head for the JLT so my selection is…
Clarcam 2pts win 16/1
I fully expect him to improve for better going/more cover and can’t shake how well he won at Navan.
And just so as you all know, Un De Sceaux will fall 3 out. Anyone wan’t to give me odds on that one?
Oh and I see you’ve put 40/1 next to my QMCC selection VTC on page 1 when I put up 80s with Betway about Somersby (just to save any confusion in case he hoses up). Thanks.
Wise Dan
Every race after the folks across the pond started saying he was the best miler in the world.
Oh and So You Think – I hated the fact that the ‘lads’ could just spend a fortune to bring the best horse in Australia to Europe and just expect it as their right to win every 1m2f Group 1 with him. It made my Royal Ascot seeing Rewilding run him down. For about the same reason I wanted Starspangledbanner to lose every race.
But then maybe I just like mentioning Starspangledbanner because it reminds be of backing Sole Power to win the Nunthorpe at 125/1.
It seemed to me that Sprinter Sacre lost today for a mixture of two reasons; them being that he needed the run and is not going to be as good as he once was. He’s 9 now and, given his french-breeding, has the right to start his decline. Even if that’s not the case let us remember how Denman was never as good after he returned from the same issue. Sprinter Sacre’s never going to reach the dizzy heights of his 188 rating requires and looked in every bit as if he’ll be better for getting this comeback under his belt. I think that he ran to a mark of 166 and Dodging Bullets about 168. When you look back and see that Sire De Grugy won the Champion Chase off 169, Sizing Europe of 160, Finian’s Rainbow 164 and Big Zeb 165 then surely Dodging Bullets has every right to be good enough win the big one come March. I remember people saying last year that Sire De Grugy wouldn’t be able to hack it round Cheltenham and looked what happened. Many will fancy Sprinter Sacre to turn around the form come March, and for sound enough reason too but in the Queen Mother there will be no hiding places for a horse on the comeback trail. I wouldn’t be taking 5/2 with any confidence.
I don’t think The New One should have won last year, he would have been closer but the best horse won on the day. At the moment I’d say the Champion Hurdle is Faugheen’s to lose. Jezki is the main danger in my opinion. I think Walsh will have the favourite well clear jumping the last and The New One will fill the same position as last year.
I took the 20/1 midweek about Dodging Bullets winning the Clarence House and the Champion Chase. Although I still don’t have him as the winner I’m sitting fairly pretty and will probably have a fair bit on Sprinter Sacre to win as I would say there is a big chance of the form of today’s race being turned around. I would also back Champagne Fever nearer the time but I’ll wait and see how Sire de Grugy runs before getting involved in the race again given I’ve already backed Somersby each-way at 33s – which is annoying as I see SkyBet have pushed him out to 40/1.
