Your back, lay and each-way

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 Your back, lay and each-way

This topic contains 44 replies, has 27 voices, and was last updated by patriot1 patriot1 4 years, 6 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 45 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #750695
    Himself
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3773

    Back : Faugheen

    My biggest wager of meeting. I cannot see this machine of a horse getting turned over. Steering job for Ruby !

    Lay : Sprinter Sacre

    The old adage about them not coming back rings so true, so bearing that in mind, I’m more than willing to lay the big horse.

    Champagne Fever : With doubts surrounding the big two , I am certain Champagne Fever will be in first three.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #750697
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2077

    BACK

    OLBG Mares Hurdle – Glens Melody 6/1

    Miss Reliable. 2nd to Quevega last year, rather unflattered by the result in the end as the only one to really serve it up to Quevega. Annie Power likely to go to the World Hurdle with More Of That sitting out.

    LAY

    Foxhunters’ Chase – Teaforthree

    He still needs to be first or second in another hunter before Cheltenham. As an older horse who has had his problems, racing twice in quick succession on bad winter ground could easily leave him a little flat on the big day itself. The Irish hunters are a grizzled bunch and I think 11/4 is way too short.

    Also, Nichols Canyon in whatever race he runs in. If you look at his flat form, he managed to get beaten in handicap off 85 when uncomfortable on good-to-firm ground. He was then kept to soft ground and improved to be 100+. Unless it comes up unseasonably soft in March, he could bomb out.

    EACH-WAY

    RSA Chase – Sausalito Sunrise 25/1.

    Hopefully he runs. Better ground will help, as will the end-to-end gallop that a Coneygree or Kings Palace will serve up. I think he could emulate his owner’s Arkle winner Captain Chris by hitting a new level at the Festival.

    #750700
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2050

    Back: Faugheen

    Yes, boring I know but there really is no stopping the monster in Willie Mullins’s yard. I can’t help but remember how powerfully he ran up the Cheltenham hill last year. I’m convinced that they can’t go too fast for him and he could flatten every hurdle and win this year’s Champion running backwards. I’ve only ever been this confident this far off about a festival winner since Hurricane Fly’s first Champion Hurdle – and I wasn’t let down then and can’t see being let down this time. I was a mahoosive The New One fan in his novice days (backed him almost every race) but I just can’t see him ever winning a Champion Hurdle especially as I still believe if he was good enough he could have won last year. Hurricane Fly’s never liked Cheltenham and is too long in the tooth to win by class alone. The plan is the smash into the Machine to get the festival off to a flyer.

    Lay: Sprinter Sacre

    Let it be known that I do not lay horses, never had and never will. But given that I’m all over the Champion Chase with my ante-post, I’m in for a good profit if any of the leading principles bar the Henderson Goliath win. To that extent I feel I only have Sprinter Sacre to beat (Mr Mole is just a progressive handicapper in my opinion and can see him completing in his own time). I am, too, of the opinion that Sprinter Sacre was at about 95% fit for his return last month and that he simply is now too many pounds below his best to regain his crown although I wouldn’t mind too much if proved wrong.

    Each-Way: Clarcam
    I think he is a much better horse than his thrashing at the hands of the favourite last time out suggests. He’s a quality horse who should relish better going. There’s only Un De Sceaux to beat for this one in my opinion and who knows, there’s every chance Walsh could be sent flying out the saddle.

    #751039
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Bumped into Dolly Parton the other day and mentioned this column to her. She doesn’t lay horses and prefers win only bets. I asked her for four to make up a yankee for Cheltenham and she said:-

    "Faugheen, Faugheen, Faugheen, Faughee-ee-een"

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #751055
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20753

    The horse would win even if Dolly was doing the steering.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #751067
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    The horse would win even if Dolly was doing the steering.

    A bit lacking in safety from Dolly there with no helmet.

    Mind you, she does have two airbags fitted in case of any mishaps. :P

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #751176
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26229

    Back: Silviniaco Conti 100/30 (Paddy Power) Gold Cup

    Simply has by far the best form in the race and possible negatives have been exaggerated imo. Almost certain to win if running to form. Superiority over the rest warrents him being odds-on if there were no negatives whatsoever. It is an extra one and a half furlongs; but Haydock’s 3m1f win was on very soft, stamina sapping ground.

    What’s the evidence of not liking Cheltenham? Has run three times there. As a hurdler finished third in International Hurdle. 4 1/2 and half a length behind Menorah and Cue Card. Silvi was third favourite behind those two, so not expected to win. He was also giving the pair 4 lbs, suggesting under levels would’ve finished less than a length behind Menorah and three in front of Cue Card… And twice in the Gold Cup…
    Two years ago going better than anything else when falling 3 out. Too far out to be certain where he’d finish, but there’s no evidence to suggest he would not have been involved in the finish.
    Last year came to win the race, looking likely winner jumping the last, only to wander all over the place on run in and giving the race away. Finishing an admittedly disappointing 4th. Was it the course, or stamina, or some other reason? Next time out, few weeks later at Aintree – again wandered badly both ways – this time between the last two fences. Unlike Cheltenham, having enough time to recover and win. If it was stamina or the course that was the problem at Cheltenham, then why did he act the same at Aintree (a flat course) at 3m? Silviniaco Conti disappointed on reappearance in the Charlie Hall (probably needed race) then came right back to his best in Betfair Chase and King George VI. Both occasions wearing first and second time cheek pieces in both races there was no sign of the Spring waywardness. Seems to me the wayward temperament tendencies shown at both Cheltenham and Aintree have been settled by cheek pieces. Whether there is some other contributing reason for the defeat last year, we’ll see.

    Way the horse finished the King George – impressive. Fehily setting even fractions, revealing Silvi was not tiring after 3 miles. He did not beat out and out stayers, but Dynaste stays 3 miles very well. Argueably the Pipe horse’s two best performances in form terms are at 3 miles, in last season’s Betfair and this season’s King George. So whether Silviniaco Conti beat horses that would not stay 3m2f110yrds does not matter, the form (and time) produced is still the same as it would’ve been had the places been out and out stayers – ie outstanding form (compared to all his Gold Cup rivals). Whether Silviniaco Conti stays 3m2f110yrds around Cheltenham has not been proven yet; but the way he’s run at 3m and 3m1f imo suggests very strongly has an excellent chance of doing so.

    The Cheltenham factor can be a major influence in who wins at the festival, but can also make some horses much bigger than they should be because of a supposed weakness. We saw last year Sire De Grugy going off an unbelievable price in the Champion Chase. Silviniaco Conti is imo a horse with a chance of between 2/1 and 6/4 (between 33% and 40%). He’s being offered @ 100/30 (23%) NRNB. So at least 10% better, if not 17% better. A bet with a capital "B".

    value is everything
    #751205
    The Young Fella
    The Young Fella
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2077

    What a superb post, GT. Credit to you win or lose.

    I’ve been tempted to back Silviniaco Conti for a while, but just couldn’t verbalise my hunch that he is still good value at 100/30. Now it all makes sense – thank you!

    #751296
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26229

    Only thank me after Silvi wins TYF. :lol:

    value is everything
    #751351
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26229

    Each Way and Lay:

    My each way shot is not what you might expect. Usually people look at each way bets as a double figure price. Mine is only 6/1 with Paddy Power nrnb. It’s more of an (almost) free win bet.

    Jezki in the Champion Hurdle. Am not one who’s particularly negative about the favourite Faugheen. Might be worth a bet on the day if odds-against. It’s often said "what did he beat", but the fact is he’s beaten good (not top class) horses both easily and by a long way. Plenty of room to fit top class horses in those 8 lengths between him and Purple Bay with 9 back to Blue Heron in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Runner-up not run since, but had given 6 lbs and a 4 length beating to Bertimont, with 3/4 back to Rock On Ruby, getting 6 lbs from the ex-champion in Elite Hurdle. Latter probably needs further nowadays (goes for Stayers Hurdle), but still a fine performance by Purple Bay.

    Bertimont disappointed next time, but came back to form only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in receipt of 8 lbs by Champion second favourite The New One at Haydock. TNO obviously below form at Haydock in very soft ground, jumping right-handed which is a bit of a worry for Cheltenham; both in being a left-handed course and a question mark on the horse’s soundness. Has gone right before, but not to such an extent. I backed him for this last year, we know he’s better than Haydock, but the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay suggests the Twister’s horse has 8 lengths to make up in one go on easy Kempton winner Faugheen. Even at his best I dont think The New One is as good as Faugheen and the latter is improving.

    Incidentally, Christmas Hurdle 3rd Blue Heron (beaten 17 lengths by Faugheen and no longer entered in Champion) went on to show improved form when winning the Kingwell Hurdle by 6 lengths in receipt of 4 lbs from second Irving.

    Last year’s Champion was marred by the sad fatality of Our Conor. The New One hampered and lost ground. Sam took his time to get back to them, may be had he seriously asked the horse earlier would have done better. Finished best of all, seemingly quickening rather than staying on. In my opinion The New One has enough pace at his best to be fully effective at 2 miles. Would’ve been closer to both Jezki and My Tent Or Yours, but far from certain the result would’ve been any different without interference.

    With The New One’s poor Haydock show and uncertainty over last year’s race – I see no reason why he should be only top price of 3/1 compared to double that for Jezki. Seldom get involved with laying, but 3/1 is very poor value imo and worth a lay.

    Jezki has not shown the Champion Hurdle form yet this season, but imo he’s a Spring horse. Each of the last two years has come to the Festival (and afterwards at Punchestown) and improved a lot on the form he’d shown previously that year.

    imo In the last few years it’s been the opposite for Hurricane Fly; not at his very best at Cheltenham… Although reminds me a lot of Sea Pigeon, consistent, with wonderful turn of foot and battling qualities – will need to do a Sea Pigeon to win, now 11 years old. Most hurdlers of that age are on the downgrade and a strict reading of the actual form suggests The Fly is no longer at his very best away from Cheltenham either. Would’ve beaten a horse of Arctic Fire‘s quality by further than 3 1/2 lengths in previous years (1 3/4 lengths on penultimate start).

    It’s true Jezki has been beaten three times by The Fly this season, but it would’ve been close between the two last time without making an uncharacteristic mistake at the last. Will be much better suited by the likely truly run race at Cheltenham.

    I backed Sign Of A Victory early on, but hasn’t fulfilled the potential of a handicap win on goodish ground at Ascot.

    What else is there to stop Jezki at least getting a place?
    In my opinion the fair odds at this stage are:

    11/10 Faugheen, Jezki 9/2, The New One 5/1 and 10/1 Hurricane Fly, 33/1 Purple Bay, Arctic Fire 40/1, with The Field a combined 28/1.

    Wouldn’t put anyone off backing Purple Bay each way @ 50/1, but I just favour Jezki @ 6’s.

    Lay The New One @ 3/1.[/color:1hb5bf0w]

    value is everything
    #751398
    Pointer
    Pointer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 147

    BACK

    OLBG Mares Hurdle – Glens Melody 6/1

    Miss Reliable. 2nd to Quevega last year, rather unflattered by the result in the end as the only one to really serve it up to Quevega. Annie Power likely to go to the World Hurdle with More Of That sitting out.

    LAY

    Foxhunters’ Chase – Teaforthree

    He still needs to be first or second in another hunter before Cheltenham. As an older horse who has had his problems, racing twice in quick succession on bad winter ground could easily leave him a little flat on the big day itself. The Irish hunters are a grizzled bunch and I think 11/4 is way too short.

    Also, Nichols Canyon in whatever race he runs in. If you look at his flat form, he managed to get beaten in handicap off 85 when uncomfortable on good-to-firm ground. He was then kept to soft ground and improved to be 100+. Unless it comes up unseasonably soft in March, he could bomb out.

    EACH-WAY

    RSA Chase – Sausalito Sunrise 25/1.

    Hopefully he runs. Better ground will help, as will the end-to-end gallop that a Coneygree or Kings Palace will serve up. I think he could emulate his owner’s Arkle winner Captain Chris by hitting a new level at the Festival.

    Very interesting TYF… I like how Sausalito Sunrise has gone under the radar, being fresh and on song for the RSA has clearly been the plan for a while, no other entries. Hobbs thinks an awful lot of this horse, picked him out as his horse to follow this year. Will relish better ground for sure. Also, I’m a fan of Gold Well as a sire.

    #751406
    Pointer
    Pointer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 147

    Back: Faugheen
    – all the figures stack up: age, progression, times, acceleration, course form
    – heard from a connection that he did a frightening piece of work last week with Douvan, leaving the novice for dead, by all accounts he’s just getting better and better

    Lay: Peace and co Triumph
    – impressive no doubt but crazy short price for the triumph
    – triumph hurdle trial is more of a curse than the feltham is to the RSA!

    Each way: Blaklion 14/1 Albert Bartlett
    – far less question marks IMO than the 4 contenders at shorter prices
    – only holds an entry to this race
    – loves an uphill finish
    – won at the track
    – relishes better ground

    #780233

    nicks1976
    Participant
    • Total Posts 10

    Back – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
    Lay – Vautour (JLT)
    Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.

    #782391
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2050

    Back – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
    Lay – Vautour (JLT)
    Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.

    I would love to hear the reason for laying Vautour.

    #782754
    JJMSports
    JJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2024

    Back – Monksland (16/1 World Hurdle)
    Lay – Silviniaco Conti (3/1 Gold Cup)
    EW – Simply Ned (20/1 Champion Chase)

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 45 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.