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I knew I’d be in for trouble with my comment but then the great thing is that everyone has different opinions. All I know is that as I was cheering home Ruby on Faugheen the person next to me was having a right old dig at Silly Twiston-Davies for the ride and at the time I tended to agree with him. I think if The New One was further of the pace he’d of finished much closer. But to be honest the horse simply isn’t good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, never was and never will be. He needs further and is beaten as soon as the pace quickens in these championship races. He’s the new Oscar Whiskey in my opinion in that he’s seen to best effect between 2 and 3 miles. 2 miles is too short and I don’t think he’ll stay 3 so the obvious plan is to train him for all the 2 and a half mile races (Aintree) but where’s the glory in that? The New One ran how I expected him to and as for the deluded few who backed him big time? Well, I was telling a lot of people a lot of I told you so’s.
And I don’t think I backed a single Nigel Twiston-Davies horse all week. Lucky eh?
Train The New One to win a World Hurdle next season. If he comes up short then just accept it and spend the next couple of seasons mopping up Relkeel and Aintree Hurdles.
I don’t think Eastlake would have won that race no matter what jockey was on board. I would nominate Sam Twiston-Davies for the ride on The New One (tried to keep tabs on the favourite instead of riding his mount to the best of his abilities) and subsequently costing it a place or two, and that’s the opinion of someone who won a lot of money on Faugheen.
13:30 – Peace And Co
14:05 – Violet Dancer
14:40 – Black Hercules
15:20 – Many Clouds (nap)
16:00 – On The Fringe
16:40 – Sleepy Haven
17:15 – Solar Impulse13:30 – VALSEUR LIDO
14:05 – HENRYVILLE
14:40 – DON COSSACK
15:20 – SAPHIR DU RHEU
16:00 – ATTAGLANCE
16:40 – GUESS AGAIN (nap)Reserves: Ptit Zig, The Tourard Man, Ballycasey, Jetson, De Boitron, Heaney
Well I can’t complain getting paid out 20/1 on Dodging Bullets and having backed Somersby each-way for this all season.
Shame about Sprinter Sacre – time waits for no horse. Sire de Grugy ran well enough for me to think that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with next season with a better preparation.
Bad start comp wise but at least I won enough money for the week on Douvan and Faugheen.
Wednesday:
13:30 – NICHOLS CANYON (nap)
14:05 – THE YOUNG MASTER
14:40 – LAC FONTANA
15:20 – SIRE DE GRUGY
16:00 – SIRE COLLONGES
16:40 – GOLDEN DOYEN
17:15 – GENERAL PRINCIPLEReserves: Outlander, King’s Palace, Activial, Dodging Bullets, Rivage D’or, Gwencily Berbas, Pylonthepressure
I’m going to put in a word for two second strings in the finale tomorrow. One is Gorsky Island ridden by Denis O’Regan who drops back half a mile after 3 races over 3miles+ at Ludlow. Tom George has avoided the worst of the ground all season with this one and it could be that a proper racing service will bring about the amount of improvement needed to defy his rising handicap mark which is exactly a stone above his last winning mark. He ran very well last time out however and you need to stay in these briskly run handicaps, he’ll get up the hill all right. The other is Golden Hoof. Nicky Henderson’s charge put in an impressive performance to win well at Aintree over the distance on good ground in October, he’s run well to be 2nd and 3rd on his two subsequent starts on soft going and has been given a break since December. He should be freshened up for a tilt at this and could be well in back on a sound surface.
Cheltenham Tuesday:
Reserves in brackets
13:30 – Douvan (Shaneshill)
14:05 – Clarcam (Gods Own)
14:40 – Lamb Or Cod (The Druids Nephew)
15:20 – Faugheen (Hurricane Fly)
16:00 – Bitofapuzzle (Carole’s Spirit)
16:40 – Broadway Buffalo (Vivaldi Collonges)
17:15 – Gorsky Island (Golden Hoof)
Final ante-post stance:
Arkle – Clarcam 16/1 each-way (now generally 12’s but 14’s with Ladbrokes)
Champion Hurdle – Vaniteux 40/1 each-way (now pest priced 33/1)
Mare’s – Bitofapuzzle 20/1 each-way & 54/1 win (20/1 still available)
Dark Spirit 1000/1 win on Betfair (best priced 50/1 now)
Clara Mc Cloud 1000/1 win on Betfair (Non-Runner)Novices’ H’cap – Thomas Crapper 16/1 each-way (now best priced 10/1)
Neptune – Value At Risk 14/1 win (Re-routed to Albert Bartlett)
Killultagh Vic 50/1 each-way (Unlikely to line up)Champion Chase – Dodging Bullets 20/1 win (now 11/2)
Sire De Grugy 4/1 & 6/1 win (now 10/3)
Somersby 33/1 & 40/1 each-way (still 40’s)Fred Winter – Mick Jazz 20/1 each-way (Non-Runner)
Ryanair – Champagne Fever 12/1 win (More than likely to run in Queen Mother instead)
Ballynagour 28/1 win (Unlikely to take part)World Hurdle – Saphir Du Rheu 14/1 win (now 5/1)
Briar Hill 40/1 win (now best priced 20/1)Triumph Hurdle – Kalkir 16/1 win (still 16s)
Gold Cup – Silviniaco Conti 20/1 win (you can still grab 10/3)
Dynaste 33/1 each-way (Non-Runner)
Lord Windemere 12/1 win (unchanged)Rich Ricci 4 or more winners 14/1 (now 7s)
I’m not a religious person but I’ve found myself hoping and praying that Mick Jazz manages to get into the Fred Winter having backed him ante-post at 20/1. Harry Fry’s inmate seems to be fairly treated off a mark of 130 but that has left him at number 35 in handicap and with a reduced maximum field of 22, I think there’s more chance of a run in the Midlands National. It must also be slightly worrying for supporters of Hostile Fire as the favourite is in need of 9 pulling out to be sure of a run. In light of this it may not be a bad idea to take the 16s on offer about Starchitect. It’s worth remembering that Donald McCain’s four year old has only been bettered so far in his career by the top 2 in the betting for the Triumph Hurdle. Those defeats came after looking impressive in turning over an odds-on shot at Aintree. He’s not fantastically handicapped of 133 but it’s enough to see him get a run and should a return to better going bring about any amount of improvement, then he could be a nice each-way bet.
Back – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
Lay – Vautour (JLT)
Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.I would love to hear the reason for laying Vautour.
Neptune:
Nicholls Canyon, 2pts win @5/1 with Ladbrokes
On all known form it’s the obvious pick. I wouldn’t touch Parlour Games with a barge pole, he’s been going round picking up slowly run events that turn into sprints for home. But then of course, we all know how pedestrian the novice races at the festival are run don’t we?
I would love to select Shaneshill, having backed him ante-post, but it now appears evident that Mullins will divert him to the Supreme.
Happy to have taken the 6’s offered after Newbury now the best price available for a repeat from SDG is 4/1. That was a spectacular round of jumping. As I said 3 weeks ago, Gary Moore’s charge is the most likely Champion Chaser.
I can see him going off favourite.
Not too devastated to see Segal go for Rocky Creek. He recommended 10s which is what I managed to nab for myself.
I think that on all known form Rocky Creek is the best horse in the race at the distance. I am sure that the ground will be fine and believe that the track should suite if anything. I am ready to forgive his tame effort in the Hennessy when never traveling, given that was 28 days after his hard fought effort in Ireland. I’ve always said that you should forgive a horse one bad run. I quite like the fact that he’s had an easy time of it since and his runs off from a break in the past have all been very good. If he turns up in the same form as the 2013 Hennessy in which he ran a fantastic race of a 3 pound higher mark then he could have the race at his mercy. He can carry weights and is primed for a massive run now the National weights are out.
Call me predictable but I may try and see if anyone’s offering 5/1 in the morning about Easter Day as he’s been followed all season as if he’s one of the best handicapped horses in training and I’m a happier man backing him at 5/1 over 3 miles at Kempton then at 3/1 over 2 and a half round Cheltenham.
I’m sure Le Reve has a chance but he would need to still be improving at a rate of knots and I’m happy to bet against that eventuality.
Ballinvarig looks interesting at 16’s as a course and distance winner this season and off a nice racing weight. But I feel he’s opposable off a career high mark in the best chase he’s contested to date.
Obviously I suppose Tap Night is the real something in the something. Cheek pieces on and another crack at 3 miles could bring about any amount of improvement on this season’s form so far. And Dickie Johnson being on board is a plus. He’s off his lowest ever chase mark and put up his best performance last time out. However, although he’s on a nice racing weight I can’t help but suspect one of the festival handicaps is the be-all and end-all so I think I’ll oppose.
Renard is value at 33s given I think he ran well in the circumstances at Doncaster and doesn’t seem badly handicapped off 139 considering he was 6th in the Becher of 142 and 3rd in the 2014 Grimthorpe of 141. He likes to be to the fore and could outrun his odds in a race that may be determined by tactical pace. He’s never run round Kempton before, so I shall be keen to see if he takes to it.
I’ll have 2pts win on Champagne Fever at 10/1 with Corals please.
I was tempted by the 33s offered about Ballynagour but I’m worried about his absence since Newbury.
That’s precisely why my selection is ballynagour! Needs to go fresh, likes the track, no second fiddle issues with dynaste out.
Tarquin is mighty tempting also?
Can I do 1 pt win on both?
Ballynagour 33/1 various
Taquil du seuil 16/1 variousWell, I will admit to having sneaky each-way bets at 28s and 33s. He traveled beautifully in the Hennessy before finishing very tired which worried me slightly. I suppose he just doesn’t get 3 miles plus. The Ryanair is his perfect distance and the ground and course will suit. I know he runs well fresh it’s just I would have been happier had he actually completed at Newbury. I’ve never been a Taquin du Seuil fan I’m afraid and haven’t been taken with him this season but I suppose must have a shout on last year’s form.
A quick look at oddschecker and I see that StanJames are only offering 33/1 about the Champion Hurdle having the biggest winning SP and there’s a bit of blue around it. Just how much did you have on? In any case it was enough to frighten the lads.
Some of us took 14/1 about Rich Ricci having 4 or more winners during the week. (Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Kalkir, Au Quart De Tour – enough said).
That seems very good value – what price now Charles?
Only 7’s I’m afraid. I opened up a Betfred account solely for this bet. Mind you I took the 14’s on New Year’s Day so that was before Douvan demolished his rivals in the Moscow Flyer and Vautour bounced back to winning ways.
A quick look at oddschecker and I see that StanJames are only offering 33/1 about the Champion Hurdle having the biggest winning SP and there’s a bit of blue around it. Just how much did you have on? In any case it was enough to frighten the lads.
Some of us took 14/1 about Rich Ricci having 4 or more winners during the week. (Douvan, Faugheen, Annie Power, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Djakadam, Kalkir, Au Quart De Tour – enough said).
