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Gutted Carraig Mor’s not been declared for the Fez Handicap Chase. First bit of dollar done
Hello,
Can any our Irish colleagues enlighten us whether they believe the weight allocations to the Irish contingent as a whole has been fair. Or has the UK handicapper ‘added’ a few pounds here and there.
Also, a further request – any horses that our Irish comrades believe may have got in ‘lightly’, although I don’t believe the UK handicappers are prone to gifting the Irish
Roi Des Francs (Martin Pipe conditions hurdle) looks the best treated of the Irish imo, but his price has collapsed during the week to around the 5/1 mark, having been as big as 14’s when the weights came out.
Overall I think the weights are fair enough, some lenient and some harsh.
Backed Horizontal Speed in the 2m4f novices handicap chase @ 16-1. Also Ned Stark in the 3m1f handicap @ 8-1 both on Tuesday.
I’ve done Ned Stark and Ned Buntline. Both were 10/1 when I took them. I quite fancy both of them but to be honest the main reason I have done them is the old theory:-
“Two Neds are better than one”
I have Leap Dearg and Camping Ground at 25/1 and 14/1.
The other handicaps look pretty much impossible to solve.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wishing an eve of meeting good luck to all who get involved in the handicaps. I find them impossible and usually just stick a fiver on something.
Rajdhani Express will, of course, win the Festival Plate!
3 Miler tomorrow
The Druids Nephew 8/1
Theatre Guide 25/1Novice
Knock House 16/1Pertemps final
Peckhamecho 50/1Plate
Rajdhani Express 20/1 I think this horse is way overpriced considering he ran 5 lengths 3rd in last years ryanair. Can see it being single figures on the day.
Attaglance 14/1County Hurdle
Cheltenian 14/1Grand Annual
Eastlake 25/1 (please tony pick this one)I’m going to put in a word for two second strings in the finale tomorrow. One is Gorsky Island ridden by Denis O’Regan who drops back half a mile after 3 races over 3miles+ at Ludlow. Tom George has avoided the worst of the ground all season with this one and it could be that a proper racing service will bring about the amount of improvement needed to defy his rising handicap mark which is exactly a stone above his last winning mark. He ran very well last time out however and you need to stay in these briskly run handicaps, he’ll get up the hill all right. The other is Golden Hoof. Nicky Henderson’s charge put in an impressive performance to win well at Aintree over the distance on good ground in October, he’s run well to be 2nd and 3rd on his two subsequent starts on soft going and has been given a break since December. He should be freshened up for a tilt at this and could be well in back on a sound surface.
I have just backed Golden Hoof cos I have already backed Horizontal Speed in same race!!
It’s Ned Stark for me in the Ultima, especially owing to his trainer’s record in the race and the connections between the horse and the race sponsors. The Druid’s Nephew is one I don’t fully understand the support for given a seemingly quite exposed profile. Barrakilla, Theatre Guide and Tenor Nivernais were my small savers at chunky odds in the race. He might win, but you’d be mad to back annual flop Pendra at his current price with his jumping.
In the final race on day one, I’m big on Thomas Crapper and think he is the NAP of day one. If you were watching the decs, Robin Dickin actually pulled out his other potential runner Garrahalish within five minutes of the cut-off when it looked as though Thomas Crapper would miss the cut by one. Ten seconds before the cut-off, another withdrew, so it turns out he could have run both! Risking upsetting another set of owners to run Thomas Crapper must be a tip in itself, especially at a small yard like his. As to his actual form chance, you don’t need me to explain…Cheltenham…134…Martin Pipe…Don Poli…Vibrato Valtat…etc etc. It’s obvious. Second choices for me in the race would be Bold Henry and Killala Quay.
Thomas Crapper is becoming the Tenor Nivernais of this meeting (cast your mind back a couple of years). Let’s hope he runs better than that
I’ve had 7 bets in the 2:40, three main bets. Might go in again on some of those 7 on the Tote.
2:40 3m1f Handicap Chase
@ 9/1 (PP) Ned Stark* (min 15/2)
@ 9/1 (PP) Druids Nephew* (min 8/1)
@ 16/1 (PP) Mendip Express (min 15/1)
savers:
@ 22/1 (SJ) Black Thunder (min 22/1)
@ 22/1 (FD) Indian Castle (min 22/1)
@ 33/1 (PP) Cape Tribulation (min 33/1)
@ 12/1 (B365) Barrakilla (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingTodays handicaps, What a Warrior, Gallant Oscar, Smart Freddy, Ned [Winter is Coming]Stark, Irish Cavalier, Stellar Notion.
It’s never a great idea to try second guess Tony martin but i think Marinero could be a bit of a job horse for the Martin Pipe,he’s only won one of his 3 starts over hurdles but noticeably that was his only hurdle start over further than 2 mile (it was 2 mile 2 furlongs) and the form of the race doesn’t look too bad,2nd hasn’t run since but the 3rd and 5th have won maiden hurdles and the 4th place horse Riviera sun(beaten 21 lengths) was 8 3/4 lengths behind Windsor Park next time out.
Gigginstown seem to love the race,won it last year with Don Poli and in 2011 with Sir Des Champs and were unlucky in 2012 with Toner Doudairies beaten a neck and had Make your mark 4th in 2013. The step up should suit Marinero and will probably end up a 3mile chaser in time(has won a point to point) He’s rated 134 in Ireland but is alloted 138 by the UK handicapper which doesn’t seem overly harsh and at the minute he’s my MP horse.
In the Coral cup today instead, i’ll have a go
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