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“The money for I Can Fly is mainly because she has was tipped by Pricewise a few weeks ago and mentioned again on the RP podcast this week. So under the radar? I would say not.
In an open year hard to rule out any at single figure odds.”
Fair enough, thanks Mike, I wasn’t aware of that. I was purely going off the amount of noise, or lack thereof, being made on sites such as this and amongst my racing friends. She has hardly got a mention on here.
Whether the market move is because of shrewd money or not, I still really like the prep run angle and think there is more to come from this daughter of Fastnet Rock.
I’ve nailed my colours to Happily already at 11/2, but I’m starting to agree that I Can Fly is potentially slipping under the radar here. Aidan’s fillies tend to do better in the Guineas with a run under their belt.
Last year Rhododendron was sent off the hot favourite without having a run under her belt, but it was Winter – who shaped so well in the Leopardstown Guineas Trial – that ran out a convincing winner.
Back in 2012, it was Maybe who was sent off the 13/8 favourite without having ran that season, but it was the 25/1 shot Homecoming Queen that absolutely bolted up by 9 lengths, clearly coming on no end from not one, but two prep races prior to the Guineas.
If we go all the way back to 2005, to Aidan’s first winner of the race, we can see that Virginia Waters also benefitted from a prep run before taking the Guineas.
Even Together, who finished a narrow second in 2011, had a prep run in the Leopardstown trial.
Minding is the only filly of Aidan’s to have won the race without having a prep run, and she was exceptional, quite possibly the best winner of the race this century. Happily could be every bit as good as Minding, she has the form in the book and she hails from an extremely talented family of milers, but those are big shoes to fill.
I can’t help but feel that the market move on I Can Fly is money in the know, as they say. Like the move on Winter last year, who was cut from 33/1 to 8/1 in the days leading up to the race, I feel like the plunge on I Can Fly is slipping under the radar slightly.
She doesn’t have the form in the book, but I’m a big fan of the Aidan’s fillies needing a prep run angle, and with the encouraging market support I’m going to have a sizeable each way bet on I Can Fly as support to Happily.
I haven’t seen the piece in question, but are we certain he doesn’t mean each of them have hadat least 6 runs?
Seems to me like he’s way too far off the mark for it to be a simple oversight on his part.
I wasn’t overly taken by anything in that Trial today. The winner definitely has questions to answer surrounding the extra 2 furlongs of the Derby, although the much stronger pace of that race will ensure he doesn’t have to do the donkey work himself. He may get 12f, but whether the same will be true at the very highest of levels is another story. His pedigree wouldn’t instil much confidence on that front either. He looked a big horse though with plenty of condition, and has every right to improve from that run.
The horses in behind finished in a heap and I’ll be surprised if any serious Classic contenders emerge from today’s race.
“RSA winner next year Jack? He looks like a good staying chaser in the future to me“
= Santini.
Paddy Power remain unchanged at 33/1, Viktors, presume its an oversight. Looks too big to me either way, I’ve gone in.
I think that’s debatable, Austin. Once again he pulled like an absolute train, any chance he had was lost in the first furlong and a half. I thought it was actually a very good effort to get up for second pulling as he did.
If they can get him settled – which should be a lot easier in the Guineas, with a bigger field and likely a stronger pace – I think he will come a lot for that run today.
Looks doubtful he has the talent to win at this stage, but with bubbles being burst left right and center, I think 16/1 is a fair price for him to hit the frame.
40/1 on Gustav however is looking better by the day.
MoM – Happy Like A Fool is a filly, and she has already won over 6f at Belmont Park, winning by 3 lengths. She raced over 7f next time out and although she only finished 4th, she saw out the distance reasonably well and was only beaten in a bunched finish.
Both of these efforts came on dirt, which if I’m not mistaken places an even greater emphasis on stamina than fast conditions on turf would. I’m not aware of what her plans are for the upcoming season, but I see no reason why 6f would be a problem for her.
I couldn’t believe Imaging’s price when I first saw it. It was no surprise to see Gustav Klimt open as the favourite, but I thought the Weld colt would be disputing second favouritism with U S Navy Flag at around 3/1. 7/1 looks massive to me.
Kenya aside – who looks more of a Derby contender to me – surely the fact that Gustav and USNF are running here rather than going straight to the Guineas means only one thing; they’re not fit.
Imaging has race fitness on his side, and I remember pointing out that Kevin Ryan thought he looked quite big the last day, and would come on a lot for whatever he did in that race. I was impressed by his gears that day, and if that run has indeed sharpened him up, I think he can really make it pay on that Heavy ground. I expect Kenya to do the donkey work, although I wouldn’t be against Imaging making his own running either. He broke his maiden very impressively doing exactly that.
In terms of ante post positions, an impressive victory from Gustav Klimt would be the ideal result, and would see him go to Newmarket as the clear second favourite, if not the favourite. Imaging getting outpaced and staying on at the end so that the Derby suddenly enters Weld’s equations, would also be a good result for me.
I don’t think that will happen though, I think Imaging will win.
Not a race I enjoy all that much, but I always have a flutter for the sake of it.
This year I’m going in single handedly with Captain Redbeard.
Extremely disappointing, there is no two ways about it. He never seemed to travel a yard, and his signature finishing kick just was not there.
Its fair enough to suggest he may want further, and his pedigree certainly suggests as much, but on last seasons form he really should have been winning that. He simply wasn’t the same horse.
It may be too soon to write him off completely, but my own early impression is that little colt hasn’t trained on, which unfortunately happens all to often with horses his size.
I don’t think its fair to say he was overrated on last years form though, Alba Power – who was beaten a similar distance by both Sacred Life and Wootton – has since come out and won very impressively at Chantilly this season.
Back to the drawing board – I’ve heard some well crafted arguments re Expert Eye of late, and I’m starting to agree that the 11/1 is more than a little enticing.
Re Sacred Life, do we know for certain that he was outpaced, or was he just showing signs of inexperience? I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assert that he was just green. Either way, he’ll have an extra furlong in the Guineas to wind up that devastating finishing kick. If he does get outpaced coming into the dip, it will take a a very good one to hold him off if he comes with that late charge. The favourite, Saxon Warrior, doesn’t give me the impression that he is the most naturally quick himself, so it could go to the colt that finishes best.
His ability to act on faster ground is more of a question mark for me at this stage, rather than a genuine concern. And as I’ve said already, it looks entirely possible we will have a soft ground Guineas this year.
Sacred Life has opened 13/8 for the Djebel tomorrow, which is bigger than I expected in what looks a pretty weak renewal.
I’ve been hounding the bookies for a price on him to win tomorrow and at Newmarket, but the only one to offer me a price was William Hill, and them a measly 20/1! That is rank value considering he is 20/1 in places for the Guineas alone. The unadjusted odds for the double would be 55.0.
Tantheem was a filly who seemed to be progressing well last season, Nwalton, but was found wanting when finishing 5th in the Morny as the 13/5F. There didn’t seem to be any excuses for her that day, she just seemed woefully outpaced when it came to the business end of the race. She is only a little filly, so it could be a classic case of a small horse filling out her frame earlier than her contemporaries, who inevitably catch up to her in the latter stages of the year.
Freddy Head was of the opinion at one stage that she was better than even Polydream, who is ante post favourite for the Pouliches, so if she can get back to the form she showed in the early part of last season she should be bang there.
The Al Shaqab filly, Talbah, is the least exposed of a pretty exposed bunch of fillies, it could pay to side with the one open to most improvement. The form of her maiden win hasn’t worked out too well however, with the second home that day going on to finish last of seven next time out.
The filly I like however is Zonza, who like Talbah, seemed to be progressing well with three wins on the bounce, before coming up short in the Morny. She managed to finish a lot closer to Unfortunately that day however, beaten just over a length, she was one of a few who seemed to pay the price for going too freely in the early stages of the race.
She went on to finish 5th in the Marcel Boussac, which if I’m not mistaken is the highest rated race to be ran for two year old fillies last season. If we take the average RPR of the first four home in each race we get; 11.25 for the Marcel Boussac, 110.25 for the Fillies Mile, 108 for the Chevely*** Park, and 105.75 for the Moyglare.
Zonza missed the break that day, and had a lot of ground to make up, but in the end she just wasn’t good enough to finish ahead of four top class fillies.
I think the form she showed last season is good enough to claim Group 3 honours here though, in what looks a pretty sub standard affair.
I’m sitting on Gustav Klimt at 40/1 for this, so it’s definitely one of my stronger ante post positions for the upcoming season. Not sure the vibes are as confident as I would like however, stable mate Saxon Warrior is clearly the apple of Aidan’s eye out of this year’s Classic crop.
I’ve decided to take a chance on the French raider, Sacred Life at 20/1.
His trainer, Stephane Wattel, said the following:
“The Guineas is a real possibility as his owner is very keen to run in Britain. There are two routes – the Prix Djebel, then the Guineas, or the Fontainebleau followed by the Poule d’Essai.
He was the highest rated two year old in France last season, winning three races on the trot, culminating in a Group 3 romp by 6l. He was denied his chance to claim Group 1 glories in the Criterium International, where he would have gone up against some of Aidan’s, due to the protests at the time.
He may have question marks to answer regarding his ability to act on faster ground, as there are conflicting reports on the state of the going for his most recent victory. His previous two wins came on Good to Soft, and Soft, but ATR reports that his Group 3 win was ran on Good ground, whilst the RP describes it as Very Soft.
With the way things are going this year, a proper soft ground Guineas isn’t out of the question. He looked like an exciting colt last season, and with an RPR of 113 – contrast that to the RPR of Group 1 winner Saxon Warrior – its clear he shouldn’t have too much to find to be competitive, provided he’s progressed from two to three.
