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Good news.
Elarqam – despite Johnston expressing his desire to try him over 10f next time out – looks like he’s heading here rather than the Dante, and 7/1 is still available but will not last long.
He should have the beating of this lot, unless Gustav comes on a fair bit from Newmarket. I’m not surprised by their decision really, as I said this looks like a very winnable Classic, and is a far more enticing prospect than taking on Saxon Warrior at Epsom.
Just to illustrate how weak of a Classic this has the potential to be, here is my roughly 100% book of what the top 5 in the betting could like on the day:
Gustav Klimt 4/5
Imaging 10/3
Symbolization 6/1
Hey Gaman 8/1
Romanised 14/1That doesn’t even take into account that Symbolization and Hey Gaman are probably more likely not to run, than run.
The winner of the French 2000 may be tempted to come over and add a second very winnable Classic to their CV, but I imagine its all but certain the winner of the Poulains makes the trip to Ascot for the St James Palace, or to Chantilly for the Jockey Club. The 13 day break between Longchamp and the Curragh would probably make the decision for most trainers. Rhododendron had a very hard race in the Oaks before running in the Diane just 16 days later, so it’s not impossible, but we all know what happened to her then.
All in all it’s looking like a very tepid affair, and I’ve convinced myself that Gustav Klimt can indeed win this with a bit in hand, and 9/4 should be far better than anything available on the day. Hopefully nothing comes out of the woodwork in the meantime.
Verbal Dexterity has been ruled out by Bolger, I’d noticed Paddy Power had scratched him from the betting but I only saw my fears confirmed today:
“Verbal Dexterity is fine but will not be ready in time for 2000 Guineas @curraghrace His big day is Irish Champion Stakes @LeopardstownRC”
He’s fine, but his big day won’t be until September? That doesn’t sound like fine to me, and it seems like a very strange long term target to have for a 3 year old.
Imaging has been cut to 6/1 with Paddy Power, and with all these defects could go off much shorter yet. I see Gustav Klimt has been cut to 13/8 with the same firm, and it may be wise to take the 9/4 still available with Sky Bet, because it’s looking like his to lose at this stage no matter how poorly he ran at Newmarket.
It’s hard to believe that Christopher Robin – who was once ante post favourite for this years Epsom Derby – is running in a Class 3 handicap at Chester tomorrow off mark of 81.
If we take his first run of the season as a prep for today, and that he retains at least a fraction of the early promise he must have shown at Ballydoyle, then he could be thrown in. Hard to imagine why they’d expose his mark for a measly 11k though.
I agree, and I’d advise anybody who’s not on already to take the 9/2 before the Marble Hill, because a good win there could see him go very short. If that is to happen, I can make it that I essentially have a free bet on Sergei at 8/1.
I see Van Beethoven as a contingency plan in case Aidan decides to take a leaf out of Willie Mullins’ bingo book. All it would take is one post race comment regarding Royal Ascot plans for that 12/1 to tumble.
That could well be the case, but with that reasoning you could easily make the argument for Van Beethoven staying over 6f, and Sergei being kept at 5f for the Norfolk or the Windsor Castle.
Of the two Sergei is actually bred to get further – being out of a Tapit mare – and could possibly even get a mile. But as of now, Van Beethoven is the one who has gone out and done it over 6f, and Sergei has not looked short of pace over 5. Its important to remember that Van Beethoven doesn’t technically qualify for the Cheshem, if that’s what you were suggesting, because Scat Daddy never won at distances of 9.5f or more. He won over 9f though, and whether the powers that be would give them the leeway of half a furlong I’m not sure.
If Sergei takes up his appointment in the Marble Hill, and wins well, we could be talking about a 7/4 shot for this race. And if that is to happen, I can offset my extra liability.
Looking at Aidan’s two year old sprinters last year, Sioux Nation dropped down to 5f in the Norfolk after running in the Marble Hill over 6f, and Murillo was stepped up to 6f in the Coventry after winning a 5f Maiden. From the outside looking in, there doesn’t appear to be any rhyme or reason to it, and 12/1 versus 4/1 about a target that has a history of being fickle looks a no brainer to me.
I’m not disputing any of that, the RPR’s awarded for the Tetrarch runners mean next to nothing to me. Imaging has proved he is significantly better than Listed class though, and at the previously available/current prices, could represent value to make the frame in what should be a very substandard Guineas.
Van Beethoven laid down a market there. Pride of Pimlico was beaten more or less the same distance by both himself and Sergei. Van Beethoven is three times the price of the latter however, and the targets of these two year old sprinters are never set in stone.
In my initial post, I said it was Declarationofpeace that went off favourite for the Coventry last year, but it was actually the Windsor Castle Stakes he went off favourite for (and completely bombed out of), having been ante post favourite for the Coventry for some time. As I said, it goes to show nothing is set in stone, and we could see a few of these chopping and changing before the race day.
I’m going to take the 12/1 on Van Beethoven for those reasons, as I fail to see why he should be three times the price of Sergei, who was perhaps a little more visually impressive.
Konchek laid down his own marker when winning a shade cosily on debut at Newmarket. He had a touch of class about him and I’ll be keeping a close eye on his next start.
You have the wrong horse there, Steve. Prior to today, Hence had never raced outside of a Fillies Maiden.
We’ve discussed time and time again on this forum, you foremost among us Steve, about the wild inconsistencies of RPR’s. At the best of times they can treated as a faint guideline, at the worst they can be treated as farcical.
Regardless, what Imaging won today was undeniably a weak race. When we factor in the ground, the trouble he got in running, and the manner in which he accelerated clear once the gap appeared, it points to him being a class apart to todays opponents.
That is not Guineas class though. In my estimation, Gustav had about as much in hand over Imaging at Leopardstown, as Imaging had over those up against him today. Gustav disappointed at Newmarket, but I think he is capable of more than that, and as other have pointed out, he may well win this through sheer lack of competition. Likewise, Imaging may be capable of making the frame for the same reasons, and I thought the 12/1, and to a lesser degree the 8/1, could look reasonably generous once the market gets a shake up.
Thanks for that, Bobby. It would appear she is more than just two weeks behind schedule. Weld notified the press today after the Tetrarch that she was likely to miss her appointment in the Blue Wind (not the Blue Grass – she won’t be running at Keenland
), as she was far more backward than a lot of his at this stage. She obviously isn’t the easiest filly to get right, not making her debut until late October last year.I think Weld’s comments today all but rule her out of the Oaks, and I think it’s far more likely at this stage that he trains her for a tilt at the Irish equivalent.
Weld said he considered sending Imaging over to France for the Poule D’Essai, so perhaps a tilt at the Prix de Diane is on the cards for Contingent? It would give him another couple of weeks to get her right, and sending her into the Irish Oaks – against what could potentially be a very smart winner of the Epsom equivalent – would be a big ask. There doesn’t seem to be a standout French filly as of now, although there are a few nice unexposed types and the Pouliches has yet to be ran of course.
Imaging – despite concerns regarding his ability to act on fast ground – completely outclassed his rivals today, and was probably a good bit better than the winning margin suggests.
He’s been cut from 12/1 into 8/1 on the back of that, and he’s now nearing the limits of what I could consider too short to back. Gustav has him held quite comfortably, and I can’t see any logical reason as to why that should change.
Charlton hasn’t been shy of sending over a good one when he has them, Charles, so would be interesting at the very least. He won a Group 1 at the Guineas meeting last year with Decorated Knight.
Of course she would be allowed go straight to Epsom, but whether she could do so and win is another thing altogether. I’d be worried about September myself, as a small filly she should really be well forward at this time of the year, and there’s clearly a struggle to get her fit.
Happily has shaped like she will improve for a step up in trip, but on breeding you couldn’t give her much of chance. Marvellous was tried over 12f, but was well beaten on both occasions and likely a non stayer. Happily is without a doubt a better filly than Marvellous in my eyes, but it’s telling that Aidan wasn’t tempted to try Gleneagles in the Derby despite him being their best 3yo colt that year by some distance. Happily unlikely to take in a trial en route to Epsom, so she will have question marks to answer on the big day.
Lah Ti Dar looked as green as kermit on absinthe again today, as I’ve heard it so wonderfully put, but she remains a filly of huge promise. I think that was a half decent field she put to the sword today, and once again the further they went the better she was.
I’m still holding out on Contingent, who is entered in the Blue Grass Stakes this month. Contrary to the Derby, this looks a wide open Oaks, and I think the Weld filly could go off a lot shorter than the 20/1 currently on offer. The form of her maiden win is working out well, and she has the breeding and the trainer with the know how to get the job done.
Agreed, Nausered. Thought that was a massive effort by The Irish Rover all things considered, and should be marked up accordingly.
Hofburg and Lone Sailor are my two against the jolly, CNC, so that is good to hear. I have Mendelsohhn at 66/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic though, so I’ll be cheering him on just as eagerly.
The bubble is well and truly burst for Rabdan with regards to the Epsom Derby, but I agree with Joni that it was a poor ride. He has stamina galore so why turn it into a sprint?
Bungle inthejungle still looks a fair price to me at 10/1, operating at a very promising strike rate of 28% so far. Given the type of mares being sent to him, their owners will most likely be looking for cheap, early speed, which must boost his chances of winning massively.
Coolmore apparently have very high hopes for No Nay Never, who’s crop sold quite well. He may fall just short of having enough runners to win this though.
Kingman is the obvious one, he was extremely precocious himself, with a rapid turn of foot. If he can pass on those traits to his offspring it will help him no end. He has a good crop size that sold very well, though the value of his foals might actually hurt his chances rather than help them, with their connections more likely to bring them along that bit more slowly than those of his competitors.
He was impressive alright, but I think it all but proves that he needs soft ground to be at his best.
On top of that, we must ask the truly banal question of what did he beat? Although Time To Study is undeniably progressive, he still came into the race a 105 rated handicapper. Torcedor’s biggest threat on ratings, Raheen House, looked a blatant non stayer to me. I’ll be very surprised if anything in behind him today ever manages to compete in Group 1 staying races.
Having said all that, I know he is held in very high regard within the Harrington yard, and if the rain should fall in late June (unlikely), and he’s gifted an easy lead up front (even more unlikely), then 14/1 would indeed look big.
), as she was far more backward than a lot of his at this stage. She obviously isn’t the easiest filly to get right, not making her debut until late October last year.