Tagged: Royal Ascot 2018
May 4, 2018 at 16:42 #1352926NauseredBlocked
- Total Posts 598
I struggle to find reasons to back horses at less than 4-1, let alone 1-7. I have backed Sergei Prokofiev at 8/1 with bet365, after reading this thread (thanks guys). I have him in a single, and a double with Laurens in 1000. I watched the Ascot race to see how The Irish Rover got on.
If anything, I’d say he’s franked the form a touch with that run. Five lengths start is massive over 5f, he did incredibly well to make up that ground, and still look like the winner 200 yards out. He’d have won very easily with a clean start.
Up the SergeiMay 6, 2018 at 15:01 #1353258
Sergei Prokofiev does not go at Naas tomorrow but runner up Pride Of Pimlico takes on some Scat Daddy and No Nay Never horses and has to concede weight, so it could be a pointer to Sergei Prokofiev’s overall level of form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 8, 2018 at 01:21 #1353431
Van Beethoven laid down a market there. Pride of Pimlico was beaten more or less the same distance by both himself and Sergei. Van Beethoven is three times the price of the latter however, and the targets of these two year old sprinters are never set in stone.
In my initial post, I said it was Declarationofpeace that went off favourite for the Coventry last year, but it was actually the Windsor Castle Stakes he went off favourite for (and completely bombed out of), having been ante post favourite for the Coventry for some time. As I said, it goes to show nothing is set in stone, and we could see a few of these chopping and changing before the race day.
I’m going to take the 12/1 on Van Beethoven for those reasons, as I fail to see why he should be three times the price of Sergei, who was perhaps a little more visually impressive.
Konchek laid down his own marker when winning a shade cosily on debut at Newmarket. He had a touch of class about him and I’ll be keeping a close eye on his next start.May 8, 2018 at 02:36 #1353432
Pride Of Pimlico was racing at 6F this time though, and it looked like he didn’t last home, weakening away.
Van Beethoven was pushed along shortly after the 3F pole and for a little while newcomer North Wind seemed to travel slightly better than the favourite. North wind seemed to tire in the closing stages and was caught for second but he ran a promising race considering it was his debut.
Van Beethoven ran out an impressive winner but it was the final furlong where he really asserted and he looks like he will get 7F.
Interesting to see how the Racing Post rate this race but I’ll be surprised if Pride Of Pimlico hasn’t regressed over the extra furlong and it has to be asked how far he would have finished behind Sergei Prokofiev had it been a six furlong race last time? I would reckon it would have been a fair old poke further.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 8, 2018 at 12:41 #1353457
That could well be the case, but with that reasoning you could easily make the argument for Van Beethoven staying over 6f, and Sergei being kept at 5f for the Norfolk or the Windsor Castle.
Of the two Sergei is actually bred to get further – being out of a Tapit mare – and could possibly even get a mile. But as of now, Van Beethoven is the one who has gone out and done it over 6f, and Sergei has not looked short of pace over 5. Its important to remember that Van Beethoven doesn’t technically qualify for the Cheshem, if that’s what you were suggesting, because Scat Daddy never won at distances of 9.5f or more. He won over 9f though, and whether the powers that be would give them the leeway of half a furlong I’m not sure.
If Sergei takes up his appointment in the Marble Hill, and wins well, we could be talking about a 7/4 shot for this race. And if that is to happen, I can offset my extra liability.
Looking at Aidan’s two year old sprinters last year, Sioux Nation dropped down to 5f in the Norfolk after running in the Marble Hill over 6f, and Murillo was stepped up to 6f in the Coventry after winning a 5f Maiden. From the outside looking in, there doesn’t appear to be any rhyme or reason to it, and 12/1 versus 4/1 about a target that has a history of being fickle looks a no brainer to me.May 8, 2018 at 14:09 #1353464
I was actually thinking ahead to the Dewhurst as a 7F target for Van Beethoven. There is no need to step him up to further than 6F for now, 7F was a distance I felt he might sign off the season on.
I feel for now that Sergei Prokofiev may be able to stalk and quicken in a 6F race to good effect.
Marble Hill will tell us more but I reckon Sergei may still be value at 9/2.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 8, 2018 at 16:19 #1353470
I agree, and I’d advise anybody who’s not on already to take the 9/2 before the Marble Hill, because a good win there could see him go very short. If that is to happen, I can make it that I essentially have a free bet on Sergei at 8/1.
I see Van Beethoven as a contingency plan in case Aidan decides to take a leaf out of Willie Mullins’ bingo book. All it would take is one post race comment regarding Royal Ascot plans for that 12/1 to tumble.May 10, 2018 at 15:40 #1353569
As I had suspected, the Racing Post awarded a regressive mark to Pride Of Pimlico for his latest start.
I felt the assessor was going to be hamstrung by how high he could rate the second and third on their debut runs and therefore had to be sensible with Van Beethoven’s mark. In the end Van Beethoven was rated 90 on RPR, which leaves him 11 lbs behind Sergei Prokofiev.
Van Beethoven got a speed figure of 56 for his second start whereas Sergei Prokofiev was awarded 85 on his second start.
Of the others Jackstar and Koncheck have both reached 89 on their debuts and Jackstar had the better speed figure by a fair bit. Only having raced once they could come forward but perhaps not as much as an O’Brien trained runner, who would likely be being trained with a 3YO career in mind sometimes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 10, 2018 at 16:45 #1353571
Ynys Mon, who was second to Jackstar last time, just got tanked at Chester by a Hannon horse who was second in a weak looking affair last week.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 19, 2018 at 21:24 #1354426
As a few of us here expected was the case, The Irish Rover proved he is far superior than the bare result of his last run would have you believe. Aidan said he is one of his strongest juveniles and he’ll be taking him to Royal Ascot. For which race we can only guess, but he showed there today that he gets 6f very well.
As I said earlier in the thread, the ante post targets for these 2 year old sprinters are extremely fickle, and he is another possible threat to Sergei Prokofiev’s participation in this race.
To make matters worse, Sergei himself is running over 5f for the Rochestown in Naas tomorrow. It puts those of us who have backed him for this race in an awkward position, because we would all obviously love to see him win well, but perhaps not too well. If he shows enough pace over 5f tomorrow it could warrant a run in the Norfolk rather than the Coventry.
Aidan’s trio of Sergei Prokofiev, The Irish Rover, and Van Beethoven all look closely tied, and trying to guess which of the them lines up in which race at Ascot could prove costly to those not already on.May 19, 2018 at 22:52 #1354432
I am not impressed that they are taking Sergei Prokofiev to Naas over 5F. It seems a pointless exercise. He is 3 to one ON and the five runner field is going to teach him nothing tomorrow. I am probably the Jonah here and the horse will go Norfolk Stakes now.
One is not amused.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 20, 2018 at 16:10 #1354483
Well, an easy four length win for Sergei Prokofiev and he varies between 9/4 and 3/1 for the Coventry Stakes now.
I am not sure we learned anything new about him today, he faced previous winners but clearly none of them were fancied to pose much of a problem to him.
I was hoping he would go to Royal Ascot with a 110 RPR but I am not sure I could put him up much for today’s win. Maybe 105 would be a likely figure for him now.
Caravaggio went to the Coventry without a previous run at 6F and perhaps Sergei Prokofiev will follow suit. I think it would be a negative career progression going to the Norfolk Stakes. It basically seems a race for horses who don’t do much at 3YO.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 20, 2018 at 17:13 #1354496hamParticipant
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It is slightly peculiar that he kept SP at 5 and TIR at 6, it would seem odd to send both to the race and it was seem
Odd to step one up who has won well at 5 and step one down whos won well at 6, guesswork at this stageMay 20, 2018 at 20:52 #1354512
O’Brien stated that Sergei Prokofiev will be seen in a better light with a strong pace to chase. He said the horse can go 5F or 6F and that his target will be based on where they are sending other colts from the yard.
My feeling is that they will probably go Norfolk with Sergei Prokofiev, if for no other reason than it’s sods law because I have him in the Coventry at double carpet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 20, 2018 at 23:20 #1354516
A little more flesh on the bones of the above. O’Brien said after yesterdays racing that Ryan Moore reported that The Irish Rover has plenty of speed and that “The Lads” will decide a week before Royal Ascot which way they are going to split them regarding Coventry/Norfolk.
With that in mind, it would seem folly to be taking 9/4 Sergei Prokofiev for the Coventry at this stage without NRNB.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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