Tagged: Royal Ascot 2018
June 13, 2018 at 21:55 #1356792
Another case of not believing a word that comes out of Teddy Grimthorpe’s mouth. He was waffling on about Calyx waiting for the Newmarket meeting.
If Calyx is to be a Guineas horse next season, the best chance of getting him beat is to face off against a 5F horse so soon after his first race. What’s the hurry if he is a horse for next season?
We saw the Juddmonte balls up with Fair Eva going to the Lowther after jockeys telling Charlton she needed 7F.
If Calyx goes to the Middle Park and wins it, you may as well tear your Guineas tickets up and put them in the fire. The race has next to nothing to do with the Classic the following season. Last winner of both was Rodrigo De Triano in 1991 if I recall correctly.
I don’t like the sound of it myself and even less the idea of titting around up and down in trip throughout the season. Is this the first nail already going into the coffin lid of another Gosden Guineas failure?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 14, 2018 at 07:13 #1356804
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And highly unlikely Sergei would be as low if he wasn’t going here.
Your probably right Ginge. Just pointing out what i read for others benefit.
“He has a choice of running in the Coventry or the Norfolk and we haven’t made that decision yet. ” AOB yesterday.
Re. Fairyland ” We haven’t decided between the Queen Mary or the Albany Stakes for her yet, but she’s been in great form here since her last run ”
If i remember right, they did make a switch with Clemmie & September late in the day last yearJune 14, 2018 at 11:09 #1356815
Yes Botchy, you’re quite right to point it out. Just thought I’d do the same by pointing out everything about the markets indicate the decision already (or all but) made.
Suspect – with Sergei going up from 5 to 6f and a horse with speed – he’ll only change target if plenty of rain (proper soft ground) places an emphasis on stamina… Which given the forecast is extremely unlikely.value is everythingJune 14, 2018 at 12:09 #1356825
“He was a little nervy in the stalls and a bit green early, but he did it very well in the end. “He’s a nice horse with a lot of quality and we’ll see how he is over the next week or so before deciding how to play it. I trained the sire to win his maiden on debut here and I also trained the damsire, so I’m familiar with both sides of the family!”
“could target the G2 July S. over six furlongs on the July course on July 12 or the G2 Superlative S. over a furlong more two days later. It’s really nice for a stallion to get rolling and it’s even better that it’s a homebred. He’ll probably have a couple options depending on how he comes out of the race. We think something like the July S. over six or the Superlative over seven at the July meeting on the same course at Newmarket. I would think they’d be the more obvious options.
Then after talking to Gosden and Havlin…
“We’ll see how he comes out of it and see how he progresses from there, it’s his first race, so the first thing is he has to get over that well and get back into a good rhythm.”
This was all on June 9th. It being likely Calyx would not recover in time for Royal Ascot and therefore quite right to say the July Stakes or Superlative the “more obvious options”. But both Grimthorpe and Gosden made a point of saying the target depends on “how he comes out of the race”. If the horse came out of the race poorly then am in no doubt the July and Superlative would’ve come too soon.
“Probable” does not mean definite. When connections make a comment about probable targets after the race and state it all depends how the horse comes out of it… Punters should imo see it as meaning the target may be an earlier one if coming out of the race particularly/unusually well – ie if impressing on the gallops earlier than expected.
…And this was all said before the amazing sectional times were known. So there’s now more relevent information to take in to account in calculating targets – in particularly which distance. Considering the speed seldom seen by a debutant two year old that early in the season, going up in trip so soon may not be such a good idea. Connections won’t want him to run at 7f until fully learning to settle like his father did. In that respect a stiffish 6f (Ascot) in a larger field can be seen as the ideal next stepping stone in the learning (staying) process.value is everythingJune 14, 2018 at 15:38 #1356839
Sergei Prokofiev has been quoted by only one firm for the Norfolk Stakes for quite a while now.
Rather than believe that Calyx needs finessed in 100 yard increments to ultimately get a mile, I am just taking a simpler view on the fact that I am assuming they don’t want to get the horse beaten on his second start.
I believe that facing a horse who may have more intrinsic speed would be an excellent choice of getting an inexperienced horse, with mile aspirations, beaten. We saw Buratino beating the more fancied Air Force Blue in the Coventry and the race report read “Chased leaders, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on but not pace of winner” for the O’Brien colt who would later sweep all before him and go off red hot for the Guineas.
Surely there has to be a chance that will happen again and even if Calyx is already a few pounds ahead on form, as Timeform believe he is, the speed issue has to come into it and Sergei Prokofiev has three runs to Calyx’s one and has experience now which will help him in being more of the finished article than when he first ran and greenness cost him the race.
If they are painstakingly going to take Calyx to 7F, I see it as a negative notion to then drop back to 6F for the Middle Park, a coffin corner for Guineas candidates for a generation now.
Duffman has a bad feeling about this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 14, 2018 at 16:11 #1356844
Buratino had had six races coming in to Royal Ascot. Had plenty of time to develop in to Coventry class animal… But therefore far more exposed than a normal Coventry winner. The second, Air Force Blue far less experienced than Buratino and therefore AFB far more likely to show subsequent improvement and be the better horse.
It’s possible inexperience could cost Calyx this year too, but despite only one run has already shown the best form of these. So has a good chance of inexperience not counting… And what if it does? As Air Force Blue’s two year old form shows – no reason why Coventry defeat should hold him back from subsequently improving in to a potential Guineas horse.value is everythingJune 14, 2018 at 21:48 #1356858
I had to have a laugh at National Guard being 33/1 in places for the Coventry.
He was out again this evening rated 79 in his third maiden. Despite the low enough mark, he went off 2/11 Fav and was beaten again.
I feel these horses should be getting quoted 100/1, or not quoted at all, because they have next to no chance of even running, far less winning and it’s just messing up the lists with all the no-hopers cluttering the pages.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 15, 2018 at 14:17 #1356896
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I love the Coventry but it’s strange renewal and lacks the strength in depth of most recent runnings.
Is Konchek a definite runner ?June 15, 2018 at 16:58 #1356903
Is Sergei Prokofiev a runner here?
He was virtually off the Norfolk betting boards but has now re-appeared there, varying from clear to joint fav in places.
Has O’brien seen Calyx and chickened out?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 15, 2018 at 17:18 #1356905
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As of two days ago he was Coventry bound according to o Brien I believe.
Tom segal said today that Sergei may actually have too much natural pace for the Coventry and that may be why he’s now priced up again for the Norfolk across the boards.June 15, 2018 at 18:21 #1356912
I’ll have a bet on Calyx at 5/2, just in case Sergei Prokofiev does go to the Norfolk. That will cover losing both my original selection and my saver from the Coventry.
With Legends Of War gone from the race at 13/2, losing Sergei Prokofiev as well (at 33/1) would be too sore to take.
Calyx 5/2 (On sufferance)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 15, 2018 at 18:49 #1356916
If there were to be plenty of rain then it would make more sense to keep Sergei at 5f for the Norfolk, rather than the comparitive stamina test of 6f on soft ground on a stiff track.
However, according to BBC the chance of rain is up to 25% tomorrow and 15% Sunday. Of course it makes sense to keep their options open at this stage; but still highly unlikely to turn soft. So the more prestigeous Coventry is surely where he’ll be turning up barring the ulnikey event of the heavens opening.
However, if anyone has got a bet on Sergei for the Guineas, Lay it off. When connections are worrying about 6f now – he aint gonna stay a mile next year.value is everythingJune 17, 2018 at 20:05 #1357159
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Cosmic Law 12/1 4 places BV.
Won against a draw bias two runs ago then bolted up at Epsom running a big number. His progress is looking rapid, if he runs to the same level or slightly higher he’s got to have a massive chance.
Will probably have a go on Calyx if I can get 7/2ish on the morning, want to take on Sergei over 6.June 18, 2018 at 03:40 #1357180
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Well he’s declared.
7 weeks of watching him shorten (admittedly from a shorter price than Steve has) and now he just has to win. The easy part eh?
Calyx is obviousky the danger but it’s a big ask for a horse to win arguably the best two year old race prior to July just ten days after his debut. I’ll be watching him in the parade ring before the race to see if he keeps calm. It’s a big mental step up for these two year olds but especially for one so new to the game.
Cosmic Law pissed up when I was at Epsom but that ground was softer than the rapid test they’ll have here and that would worry me.
The Irish River seems a little overhyped to me. On what I’ve seen, I couldn’t have him at all.
I get the sense that this is a very good renewal of the race. Just a gut feeling.
Come on Sergei! Do a Caravaggio please.June 18, 2018 at 05:34 #1357181
The Irish Rover has a bit to find with Cosmic Law through the horses who have raced against both. The Fahey horse took the Woodcote in the style of Buratino before he followed up in the Coventry in his season.
As MOM says, it was soft at Epsom, and that may have have flattered Cosmic Law’s margin of victory putting his credentials for the Ascot race into some question.
Hopefully it is the speed horse who emerges but I’ve had so many big prices going off pretty short, only to see them fail miserably on the day that mattered.
Calyx is the long term prospect but, as I said earlier, taking on a potentially speedier and more street-wise colt is probably the best way to get his unbeaten status changed PDQ.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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