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I think the RP and Timeform were impressed with the final couple of furlongs but I’m not sure how you attribute a rating of 98 but then the eleven length third gets a 63.
I liked Kingman but he was no great; well placed by his trainer and able to quicken off a slow pace, which is just how Calyx won his debut
Looking back at Kingman’s 2000 Guineas it was a funny old race. In the mix was Australia, who would go on to win the Derby, Kingston Hill who would later land the St Leger and The Grey Gatsby who got his revenge on Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes and ran 28 times in his career. Amazingly, Ertijaal would go on to be a force over 5F in Dubai.
There can’t be many Guineas’ like that one. Even good old Master The World is still going with 53 starts under his belt for David Elsworth.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some stats up to 2017 (not including Rajasinghe)
15/15 – Won their previous race
14/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/15 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
11/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/15 – Won over 6f before
8/15 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/15 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 6/1Shame but I suppose when you have Calyx on the same yard they had to make a choice.(or slight setback to one )
Only ten days since Calyx debut, he was quite buzzy on debut,they know what they are doing sending him out again so soon.
Lets hope he again looks as good as he did at HQLegend Of War’s withdrawl is a tip in itself for Calyx. Get On!
Suspect Gosden found Calyx has more speed than Legends Of War and/or the one burning up the gallops at the moment… And/or wisely concluded Calyx may need at least one more run at 6f before (as the original intention) going up in trip (Superlative). Given the impressive turn-of-foot/speed shown on debut, wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up going for the Middle Park too.Value Is EverythingAs I said on another thread until today I had only had one AP bet for Ascot but today have added two more CALYX 3/1 and ADVERTISE at 16/1.
I think without the AOB factor Calyx would be pretty short for this race and 3/1 looks a decent price to me.
Advertise ultimately won well first time up and looks a big string individual with a decent turn of foot and will be suited by the stiff finish at Ascot and to me looks overpriced at 16/1.As I said on another thread until today I had only had one AP bet for Ascot but today have added two more CALYX 3/1 and ADVERTISE at 16/1.
I think without the AOB factor Calyx would be pretty short for this race and 3/1 looks a decent price to me.Still sounds like no decision has been made by Coolmore as to who runs here yet Raymo.
Still sounds like no decision has been made by Coolmore as to who runs here yet Raymo.
The second string Irish Rover is between 13/2 and 10/1 with bookmakers and on the drift, Botchy. He’s currently 13/1 in the blue column on befair with absolutely no money in the pink (waiting to be taken). That suggests to me the decision has all but been taken… And highly unlikely Sergei would be as low if he wasn’t going here.
imo On good-firm ground this race is 33.33% Calyx, 33.33% Sergei Prokofiev and 33.33% The Field.
I’ve backed Calyx with a saver on Segei.
Value Is EverythingAnother case of not believing a word that comes out of Teddy Grimthorpe’s mouth. He was waffling on about Calyx waiting for the Newmarket meeting.
If Calyx is to be a Guineas horse next season, the best chance of getting him beat is to face off against a 5F horse so soon after his first race. What’s the hurry if he is a horse for next season?
We saw the Juddmonte balls up with Fair Eva going to the Lowther after jockeys telling Charlton she needed 7F.
If Calyx goes to the Middle Park and wins it, you may as well tear your Guineas tickets up and put them in the fire. The race has next to nothing to do with the Classic the following season. Last winner of both was Rodrigo De Triano in 1991 if I recall correctly.
I don’t like the sound of it myself and even less the idea of titting around up and down in trip throughout the season. Is this the first nail already going into the coffin lid of another Gosden Guineas failure?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
And highly unlikely Sergei would be as low if he wasn’t going here.
Your probably right Ginge. Just pointing out what i read for others benefit.
“He has a choice of running in the Coventry or the Norfolk and we haven’t made that decision yet. ” AOB yesterday.
Re. Fairyland ” We haven’t decided between the Queen Mary or the Albany Stakes for her yet, but she’s been in great form here since her last run ”
If i remember right, they did make a switch with Clemmie & September late in the day last year
Yes Botchy, you’re quite right to point it out. Just thought I’d do the same by pointing out everything about the markets indicate the decision already (or all but) made.
Suspect – with Sergei going up from 5 to 6f and a horse with speed – he’ll only change target if plenty of rain (proper soft ground) places an emphasis on stamina… Which given the forecast is extremely unlikely.
Value Is EverythingGosden:
“He was a little nervy in the stalls and a bit green early, but he did it very well in the end. “He’s a nice horse with a lot of quality and we’ll see how he is over the next week or so before deciding how to play it. I trained the sire to win his maiden on debut here and I also trained the damsire, so I’m familiar with both sides of the family!”Teddy Grimthorpe:
“could target the G2 July S. over six furlongs on the July course on July 12 or the G2 Superlative S. over a furlong more two days later. It’s really nice for a stallion to get rolling and it’s even better that it’s a homebred. He’ll probably have a couple options depending on how he comes out of the race. We think something like the July S. over six or the Superlative over seven at the July meeting on the same course at Newmarket. I would think they’d be the more obvious options.Then after talking to Gosden and Havlin…
Teddy Grimthorpe:
“We’ll see how he comes out of it and see how he progresses from there, it’s his first race, so the first thing is he has to get over that well and get back into a good rhythm.”This was all on June 9th. It being likely Calyx would not recover in time for Royal Ascot and therefore quite right to say the July Stakes or Superlative the “more obvious options”. But both Grimthorpe and Gosden made a point of saying the target depends on “how he comes out of the race”. If the horse came out of the race poorly then am in no doubt the July and Superlative would’ve come too soon.
“Probable” does not mean definite. When connections make a comment about probable targets after the race and state it all depends how the horse comes out of it… Punters should imo see it as meaning the target may be an earlier one if coming out of the race particularly/unusually well – ie if impressing on the gallops earlier than expected.
…And this was all said before the amazing sectional times were known. So there’s now more relevent information to take in to account in calculating targets – in particularly which distance. Considering the speed seldom seen by a debutant two year old that early in the season, going up in trip so soon may not be such a good idea. Connections won’t want him to run at 7f until fully learning to settle like his father did. In that respect a stiffish 6f (Ascot) in a larger field can be seen as the ideal next stepping stone in the learning (staying) process.
Value Is EverythingSergei Prokofiev has been quoted by only one firm for the Norfolk Stakes for quite a while now.
Rather than believe that Calyx needs finessed in 100 yard increments to ultimately get a mile, I am just taking a simpler view on the fact that I am assuming they don’t want to get the horse beaten on his second start.
I believe that facing a horse who may have more intrinsic speed would be an excellent choice of getting an inexperienced horse, with mile aspirations, beaten. We saw Buratino beating the more fancied Air Force Blue in the Coventry and the race report read “Chased leaders, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on but not pace of winner” for the O’Brien colt who would later sweep all before him and go off red hot for the Guineas.
Surely there has to be a chance that will happen again and even if Calyx is already a few pounds ahead on form, as Timeform believe he is, the speed issue has to come into it and Sergei Prokofiev has three runs to Calyx’s one and has experience now which will help him in being more of the finished article than when he first ran and greenness cost him the race.
If they are painstakingly going to take Calyx to 7F, I see it as a negative notion to then drop back to 6F for the Middle Park, a coffin corner for Guineas candidates for a generation now.
Duffman has a bad feeling about this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Buratino had had six races coming in to Royal Ascot. Had plenty of time to develop in to Coventry class animal… But therefore far more exposed than a normal Coventry winner. The second, Air Force Blue far less experienced than Buratino and therefore AFB far more likely to show subsequent improvement and be the better horse.
It’s possible inexperience could cost Calyx this year too, but despite only one run has already shown the best form of these. So has a good chance of inexperience not counting… And what if it does? As Air Force Blue’s two year old form shows – no reason why Coventry defeat should hold him back from subsequently improving in to a potential Guineas horse.
Value Is EverythingI had to have a laugh at National Guard being 33/1 in places for the Coventry.
He was out again this evening rated 79 in his third maiden. Despite the low enough mark, he went off 2/11 Fav and was beaten again.
I feel these horses should be getting quoted 100/1, or not quoted at all, because they have next to no chance of even running, far less winning and it’s just messing up the lists with all the no-hopers cluttering the pages.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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