Coventry Stakes 2018

[Degaussed]

I’ve taken 8/1 for the Guineas.

You could tell from the early stages that the high-drawn horses weren’t being carried into the race as the other pack, so for him to win that with plenty in hand and having smashed his side that has to rate as a brilliant performance.

[Mike007]

I’ve taken 8-1 Guineas too. Would’ve won further if drawn over other side I think.

[nwalton]

I just feel the two on the far side didn’t get racing till two out,thinking they had far side covered. In no way am I detracting from the winner, think he could be special

[stevecaution]

Sorry for Jinxing everyone with Sergei Prokofiev.

I had a saver on Calyx here and have him at 25/1 for the Guineas. I am hoping that I won’t need to have another bet on the race but I suspect I will need to.

My concern now (At 6/1 and less for the Classic) is that they go 6F again next time and then take in the dreaded Middle Park. I want to see horses at 7F before too long and I am just wondering if he may be a Shalaa, rather than a Kingman and at the odds now it is a question that needs to be asked with 10 months to wait and no certainty regarding career path.

I was stunned to hear Johnny Murtagh say that the horse to take out of the race going forward was Sergei Prokofiev. He was held up well off it today and I don’t think he quite lasted home. He was no Caravaggio in terms of confidence in the betting and he’ll never get a mile in my opinion. 14/1 for the Guineas is nonsense. I reckon Johnny was talking rubbish there.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Voleur]

Steve, saying a horse is the one to take out of the race going forward does not equate to saying a horse will stay a mile. Who says Johnny was talking about the Guineas? Sergei may still prove to be a top 6f colt like Caravaggio going forward.

I agree re Calyx however, I too am on at 25/1 for the Guineas but am slightly concerned about how much speed he showed today. On breeding he looks like a pure miler, but in the words of Gosden himself Kingman was more of a ‘sprinter-miler.’

Gosden did say his future lies over a mile though, so hopefully the Superlative/Dewhurst etc are on the agenda.

[stevecaution]

It’s a clear gut reaction comment we are talking about here. Who’s the best prospect in the race. Johnny made his comment after ten second of thought in a manner that pretty much begrudgingly gave Calyx the win but made the audience know that the Irish trained horse was “The Kiddie” for the future. It was mildly unsporting to me and well worthy of a riposte.

It seems bizarre to me to side with a 4 time raced, twice beaten, colt over a horse who got people excited enough to quote him at 4/1 for next years Guineas.

To give Calyx next to zero credit and focus on the 3rd instead, after minimal consideration, was a shock to me.

Johnny was a top class act as a jockey. That makes no difference to how good a pundit he is though. I felt it highly illogical to favour Sergei Prokofiev, who was only here after plenty of speculation about 5F or 6F as his best target. Sergei Prokofiev has a barren formline and The Irish Rover was also very disappointing today after some felt he may even be better than the more fancied stablemate.

I reckon a straw poll would see most people siding with Calyx. It seemed churlish and a little jingoistic to nominate Aidan’s colt. I’m confident that Johnny will be proved utterly wrong on this one and that’s what the game is all about.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[BigG]

My thoughts exactly Steve. There may be a few decent types that come out of this, but to say
anything other than Calyx, who had to do it the hard way, was the one to take out of the
race is simply churlish. I think when he’s had time to reflect on his knee-jerk one-liner,
he might (or should) feel a bit embarrassed.

[stevecaution]

The Racing Post gave Calyx 116 for his win, only bettered by Canford Cliffs on 118 in the last 15 years.

Calyx was drawn 22 and the eight highest drawn horses finished thus:-

Box 24 (Barbill) 17th
Box 23 (The Irish Rover) 13th
Box 22 (Calyx) 1st
Box 21 (Burj) 20th
Box 20 (Gee Rex) 8th
Box 19 (Indigo Balance) 22nd
Box 18 (Getchagetchagetcha) 11th
Box 17 (Boa Nova) 18th

OK, some were outsiders but I saw tips about for The Irish Rover, Indigo Balance and Burj coming into the race and the best any of them could do was 13th place. Gee Rex got closest to Calyx from those drawn in the highest third of the stalls and he was seven lengths behind Calyx. It suggests to me that Calyx’s superiority over the second and third is almost certainly greater than shown today.

Runner up Advertise was given a rise of 24 lbs from the Racing Post today but I am wondering if the fact that he was drawn 21 stalls lower than Calyx, is part of it? Equally, Sergei Prokofiev went up by 9 lbs today but has Trap 4 been an advantage?

Advertise has gone 88 and 112 in his races.
Calyx has gone 98 and 116 in his races.
Sergei Prokofiev has gone 85, 101, 102 and 111 in his races and isn’t really taking the leaps forward the other seem to have done.

For me it seems a case of leaving Calyx at 116 and down rating the other two to offset the draw advantage. There has to be a wee query on Advertise going up quite so much from race 1 to race 2. Caravaggio was given 115 from the Racing Post for winning his Coventry. Do we really think Martyn Meade’s colt has run to 3 lbs behind the future Commonwealth Cup winner and reached there in less races than Caravaggio did it?

Anyway a break now until the Prix Morny was said to be the desired path for John Gosden, who added that he couldn’t see why Calyx won’t be a Guineas horse. Hopefully it’s one of those where plenty of the forum got on early and it goes smoothly so that we don’t need a cover bet and can be sitting as one on Guineas day rooting for the same horse.

The voice of Freddie Mercury sparks into life:-

“One dream, one soul, one prize
one goal, one golden glance of what should be….

It’s a kind of magic”

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[jackh1092]

If there’s a trainer to listen to IMO its John Gosden.

For all his record with 2000G horses isn’t great, if he thinks the horse could progress to be a miler, then i will listen to him. He might do a Kingman and not win the 2000G, but still be the best miler next year.

Either way, what a horse he looks to be.

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[MarkTT]

Congrats to those who backed the winner – he looks very smart indeed ( and uncomplicated, which is also nice )

I was swayed by Gosden’s record in the race and the comments of connections; I knew my fate two furlongs out.
Might have a touch more stamina than his sire.

[KevMc]

Absolute machine. Showed a lethal turn of foot and then continued that to the line – some hoss.

Don’t think there was a vast draw bias, more so a pace bias as per Ascot most years.

SP stayed fine for me, just got beat by better horses on the day.
Advertise looks very useful and like his progression, was nicely backed like they knew he’d stepped forward also.

[nwalton]

118p from timeform, 2nd and third both 109p

[Gingertipster]

Rated as two races, nwalton.

Value Is Everything

[nwalton]

looks that way,I said earlier hope they clash again in Middle park or Dewhurst( for first and second)

[jackh1092]

What do you mean by that Ginge?

Split in two due to finishing on opposite sides of the track?

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[nwalton]

Jack

Timeform seem to think Calyx was on the wrong side of the course (slower/lack of a lead) so he warrants a 9lb better rating than the second, than probably the norm for a 1, which would have been around 3.5lb or some would have it as 4 to a length

[nwalton]

i see the official handicapper has it as ‘one’ race

Calyx 113
Advertise 110
SP 109
Vange 106

[Author]

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