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Coventry Stakes 2018

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2018 Coventry Stakes 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 91 through 105 (of 108 total)
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  • #1357455
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    It’s a clear gut reaction comment we are talking about here. Who’s the best prospect in the race. Johnny made his comment after ten second of thought in a manner that pretty much begrudgingly gave Calyx the win but made the audience know that the Irish trained horse was “The Kiddie” for the future. It was mildly unsporting to me and well worthy of a riposte.

    It seems bizarre to me to side with a 4 time raced, twice beaten, colt over a horse who got people excited enough to quote him at 4/1 for next years Guineas.

    To give Calyx next to zero credit and focus on the 3rd instead, after minimal consideration, was a shock to me.

    Johnny was a top class act as a jockey. That makes no difference to how good a pundit he is though. I felt it highly illogical to favour Sergei Prokofiev, who was only here after plenty of speculation about 5F or 6F as his best target. Sergei Prokofiev has a barren formline and The Irish Rover was also very disappointing today after some felt he may even be better than the more fancied stablemate.

    I reckon a straw poll would see most people siding with Calyx. It seemed churlish and a little jingoistic to nominate Aidan’s colt. I’m confident that Johnny will be proved utterly wrong on this one and that’s what the game is all about.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1357456
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6578

    My thoughts exactly Steve. There may be a few decent types that come out of this, but to say
    anything other than Calyx, who had to do it the hard way, was the one to take out of the
    race is simply churlish. I think when he’s had time to reflect on his knee-jerk one-liner,
    he might (or should) feel a bit embarrassed.

    #1357467
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    The Racing Post gave Calyx 116 for his win, only bettered by Canford Cliffs on 118 in the last 15 years.

    Calyx was drawn 22 and the eight highest drawn horses finished thus:-

    Box 24 (Barbill) 17th
    Box 23 (The Irish Rover) 13th
    Box 22 (Calyx) 1st
    Box 21 (Burj) 20th
    Box 20 (Gee Rex) 8th
    Box 19 (Indigo Balance) 22nd
    Box 18 (Getchagetchagetcha) 11th
    Box 17 (Boa Nova) 18th

    OK, some were outsiders but I saw tips about for The Irish Rover, Indigo Balance and Burj coming into the race and the best any of them could do was 13th place. Gee Rex got closest to Calyx from those drawn in the highest third of the stalls and he was seven lengths behind Calyx. It suggests to me that Calyx’s superiority over the second and third is almost certainly greater than shown today.

    Runner up Advertise was given a rise of 24 lbs from the Racing Post today but I am wondering if the fact that he was drawn 21 stalls lower than Calyx, is part of it? Equally, Sergei Prokofiev went up by 9 lbs today but has Trap 4 been an advantage?

    Advertise has gone 88 and 112 in his races.
    Calyx has gone 98 and 116 in his races.
    Sergei Prokofiev has gone 85, 101, 102 and 111 in his races and isn’t really taking the leaps forward the other seem to have done.

    For me it seems a case of leaving Calyx at 116 and down rating the other two to offset the draw advantage. There has to be a wee query on Advertise going up quite so much from race 1 to race 2. Caravaggio was given 115 from the Racing Post for winning his Coventry. Do we really think Martyn Meade’s colt has run to 3 lbs behind the future Commonwealth Cup winner and reached there in less races than Caravaggio did it?

    Anyway a break now until the Prix Morny was said to be the desired path for John Gosden, who added that he couldn’t see why Calyx won’t be a Guineas horse. Hopefully it’s one of those where plenty of the forum got on early and it goes smoothly so that we don’t need a cover bet and can be sitting as one on Guineas day rooting for the same horse.

    The voice of Freddie Mercury sparks into life:-

    “One dream, one soul, one prize
    one goal, one golden glance of what should be….

    It’s a kind of magic”

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1357490
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2263

    If there’s a trainer to listen to IMO its John Gosden.

    For all his record with 2000G horses isn’t great, if he thinks the horse could progress to be a miler, then i will listen to him. He might do a Kingman and not win the 2000G, but still be the best miler next year.

    Either way, what a horse he looks to be.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1357512
    MarkTTMarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2694

    Congrats to those who backed the winner – he looks very smart indeed ( and uncomplicated, which is also nice )

    I was swayed by Gosden’s record in the race and the comments of connections; I knew my fate two furlongs out.
    Might have a touch more stamina than his sire.

    #1357542
    KevMcKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1221

    Absolute machine. Showed a lethal turn of foot and then continued that to the line – some hoss.

    Don’t think there was a vast draw bias, more so a pace bias as per Ascot most years.

    SP stayed fine for me, just got beat by better horses on the day.
    Advertise looks very useful and like his progression, was nicely backed like they knew he’d stepped forward also.

    #1358563
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    118p from timeform, 2nd and third both 109p

    #1358641
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Rated as two races, nwalton.

    value is everything
    #1358642
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    looks that way,I said earlier hope they clash again in Middle park or Dewhurst( for first and second)

    #1358643
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2263

    What do you mean by that Ginge?

    Split in two due to finishing on opposite sides of the track?

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1358645
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    Jack

    Timeform seem to think Calyx was on the wrong side of the course (slower/lack of a lead) so he warrants a 9lb better rating than the second, than probably the norm for a 1, which would have been around 3.5lb or some would have it as 4 to a length

    #1358740
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    i see the official handicapper has it as ‘one’ race

    Calyx 113
    Advertise 110
    SP 109
    Vange 106

    #1358743
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Official handicapper is an idiot.
    If Calyx and Advertise meet next time out does he really think the betting will be as if the pair’s abilities are just 3 lbs apart? :wacko:

    value is everything
    #1358752
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6578

    I wish the betting did take that view Ginge, I’d be lumping on Calyx…..but
    as you’ve already suggested, it’s just never going to happen.

    #1358756
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    GT to you think they are 9LB apart?

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