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Draw is made on Tuesday.
A few big stats on this race which are not too good for some fancied runners.
The last 36 Kentucky Derby runners outside of North America have not been placed.
The 13 horses that ran in the UAE Derby never finished higher than 5th.
No European-based horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby.Another interesting one is famously known as the ” Curse of Apollo ” which is not too good for Justify & Malibu Moon either.
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby after being unraced at two.
Sounds like it could be a trend-busting year. I’d be interested to know if any of the Europeans runners had brought Mendelssohn’s level of form into the race?
This race is a non-event for me, but best of luck to anyone who has a bet.
I’d be interested to know if any of the Europeans runners had brought Mendelssohn’s level of form into the race?
Only one i can think of is Arazi
Good draws for most of the main contenders.#1 would be like drawn 16 at Chester
1 Firenze Fire
2 Free Drop Billy
3 Promises Fulfilled
4 Flameaway
5 Audible
6 Good Magic
7 Justify
8 Lone Sailor
9 Hofburg
10 My Boy Jack
11 Bolt d’Oro
12 Enticed
13 Bravazzo
14 Mendelssohn
15 Instilled Regard
16 Magnum Moon
17 Solomini
18 Vino Rosso
19 Noble Indy
20. CombatantGood enough draw, hopefully gets out the stalls quick, could be hard to peg back, the american bunch could technically still be anything, but i find it hard to believe any of them would have done what mendelssohn did in meydan, regardless of rail bias or track bias or whatever, it was phenomenal.. 4/1 nrnb for mendelssohn will do for me… justify probably slightly flattered IMO, bolt doro had such a reputation tail end of last season and im not convinced hes as good as they think, i actually think the other CHC horse audible is mendelssohns likely danger. But as always with this type of racing, the start is where the race is won.
What price is he going to go off If Rayya runs well in the oaks… cant wait for this.
I was in the U.S this week with work and bumped into a U.S colleague who is a big horse racing man. At the odds he fancies Hofburg for this. He has a good track record of winning this so here’s hoping. Good luck to all.
Hofburg and Lone Sailor are my two against the jolly, CNC, so that is good to hear. I have Mendelsohhn at 66/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic though, so I’ll be cheering him on just as eagerly.
What price is he going to go off If Rayya runs well in the oaks… cant wait for this
Yeah should be a good un as well Ham. Not saying she will win or anything but that Midnight Bayou put up a jaw dropping performance in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks. She is in the red colours, second last after the start.
Looked like Rayya finished just about stone last there. Never landed a blow and slaughtered out of sight.
No comfort or encouragement for Mendelssohn at all there.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Rayya was second last. Beaten a shade over 42 lengths. That is not a great advert for Mendelssohn.
I find it astonishing that stablemate Threeandfourpence is 9/2 second favourite for his race tonight. He was behind Rayya by miles at Meydan beaten 56 lengths by Mendelssohn when registering a measly RPR of 8. Second favourite this time? There is a whiff of excrement in the air now. I’d lay that horse all day and all of the night as The Kinks used to sing.
I can’t have Mendelssohn at 4/1 for the Kentucky Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s not a race I normally do much with, but having gone through them I can’t get away
from the chance of Justify. Mendelssohn is an impressive looking horse,
and whilst his run last time out looked sensational, I’m just not sure that there aren’t
shades of Bristol De Mai’s win (fine horse that he is) in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.
I didn’t see Justify’s 1st race, but having watched his last 2 I’m struggling to find any
fault or weakness in the horse.I think he looks top class and having had only the 3 races
there is surely some improvement to come. I think he will likely go off favourite, he’s as
low as 7/2 at the moment, but an absolute stand out at 9/2 with Ladbrokes, who very kindly
boosted the price to 5/1. I’ve stuck him in a nice treble with Saxon Warrior and Soliloquy,
if they all come up I might just get converted to the flatI would love to see Mendelssohn win but he’d have to be tastier odds than 4/1. I’ll cheer as much as the next man were O’Brien and Moore to pull it out of the fire though.
Just the couple of bets for me.
Good Magic 9/1
Vino Rosso 16/1 e/w (4 places with Bet365)Aidan will have known that Saxon Warrior was capable of that performance at Newmarket. With Donncha on board it must have been very tempting for him to be there. For me the fact that he is there in Kentuckey is a pointer to his belief Mendelssohn can deliver.
“I’d be interested to know if any of the Europeans runners had brought Mendelssohn’s level of form into the race?
Only one i can think of is Arazi”
Bold Arrangement had pretty good 2yo form before running 2nd to Ferdinand. Long time ago mind you!
Not radio Moehat, but here’s a link to a stream showing it.
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