Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Ireland is currently experiencing unprecedented drought conditions, which are to last another 10 days at the very least. There is absolutely no concern that the ground will come up any way soft, it is like concrete at the moment. It will take a fair bit of watering to make the track safe at the very least.
Magic Wand should take all the beating in this and will probably start a decent sight shorter than 11/4.
Steve, saying a horse is the one to take out of the race going forward does not equate to saying a horse will stay a mile. Who says Johnny was talking about the Guineas? Sergei may still prove to be a top 6f colt like Caravaggio going forward.
I agree re Calyx however, I too am on at 25/1 for the Guineas but am slightly concerned about how much speed he showed today. On breeding he looks like a pure miler, but in the words of Gosden himself Kingman was more of a ‘sprinter-miler.’
Gosden did say his future lies over a mile though, so hopefully the Superlative/Dewhurst etc are on the agenda.
I highly doubt Crowley was urging Battaash to go faster, if that is what you’re implying. Trying to get a horse to run at a steady pace/the pace he was already going – especially for a horse like Battaash – is effectively restraining the horse. There would only be one winner in that scenario, and it wouldn’t be Crowley.
I agree with Jack’s view. There was no holding Battaash today, he simply broke too well for his own good. The same people slating Crowley for letting him get on with it would probably be slating him if he tried to wrestle Battaash into settling.
Based on what we know about the horse, its fair to say he would have expended just as much energy pulling the arms out of Crowley if he tried to restrain him than he did running too free.
I have high hopes for Shahnaza, I think she will win today and have backed her for the Arc at 20/1.
I have Cracksman in a double with Sergei Prokofiev at prices of 3/1 and 8/1 respectively, so I’m hoping for a Frankelesque a la Queen Anne display from the favourite.
The Coronation Cup was obviously disheartening on the face of it, but I’m firmly in the camp that believe a line can be drawn through that run for many well-documented reasons. Ascot should suit much more, as is evident from last year’s Champion Stakes romp, and I’m hoping his giant stride eats up the rising ground.
Good to Firm would be a slight concern, but I’m relieved Benbatl appears to be leaning more towards the Queen Anne, because I think the Godolphin colt would give him something to seriously think about on fast ground.
He doesn’t appear to have much to beat, and he is a far superior horse to Poet’s Word in my opinion, fast ground or not. I just hope he came out of Epsom in good form and can put that race behind him, because there is definitely a concern for me that it may have left its mark.
I highly doubt it is the latter either Mark to be fair, the Guineas is still one of the cornerstone races of a three year old’s career and I imagine Gosden would love to add his name to its roll of honour.
Also, Kingman really should have won the Guineas, and it still baffles me to this day how he didn’t. Hopefully Calyx can go one better than his sire.
Calyx (Kingman x Helleborine) will be going down on many people’s shortlist after todays performance. He looked a carbon copy of his sire, and it’s good to see Kingman is stamping his stock. He put the race to bed in the same manner as his sire too, very reminiscent of Kingman’s own debut victory.
His dam was a Group 3 winner over a mile and finished second in the Prix Marcel Boussac behind Misty For Me. On breeding you would say it’s all but certain he will end up over a mile, and Gosden confirmed as much post race.
He looked far from the finished article today, looking very green with an awkward head carriage. I’ll be surprised if the form of todays race doesn’t hold up, with the previous winner Octave finishing second, and the rest of market principles filling the 3rd, 4th and 5th spots.
Calyx 25/1.
“U S Navy Flag is going to run here which is cracking news.
Best price 6/1.”
Like Spirit of Valor in hindsight last year, USNF looks tailor-made for the Jersey over 7f. I don’t understand their relentless ambition to make a miler out of him, especially given the suicidal rides he’s received on both occasions.
Who am I to question team Ballydoyle though, and I’m sure they’ll make a fool out of me yet.
“With the controversial issue of latex and how Wesley Ward tends to send a good one to the Queen Mary (Acapulco and Lady A anyone), I’ve backed Chelsea Cloisters here.”
That damned latex. I always thought Wesley Ward had a shady look about him, but never once did I suspect it was down to a fetishistic attraction to polyvinyl chloride.
Equilateral 6/1.
Unfortunately missed out on the 50/1 Ben has, but I am more than happy to get involved at this price. You couldn’t but be impressed by the way he hacked up at at Doncaster, and the second has come out since and won a handicap off of 80.
Agreed Botchy, I think Redkirk Warrior will definitely go off shorter than Merchant Navy once this is highlighted by pundits.
Although I am wary of O’Brien’s ability to find vast improvement in these types, 6/1 about the Warrior is too good to resist on that form line alone.
Redkirk Warrior 6/1.
Complete guesswork at this stage. I think he is more likely to go to the Coventry however, if for no other reason than because it’s the more prestigious of the two races, and Ryan said Sergei is the best two year old he has sat on this season.
Sky have Sergei at 12/1 for the Norfolk, which provides us with a much appreciated safety net.
I think that’s a bit harsh Charles. It was an absolute mess of a race tactically, and I thought SDS caught them all napping on the winner, with a brilliant, positive ride.
Murillo is probably nothing special, and the Coventry form of last year hasn’t really amounted to much so I wouldn’t even say his 3rd there means an awful lot, but I think if today’s race was ran again he would have finished a lot closer.
Eqtidaar and Murillo were the two best horses in the race today in my opinion, and if Crowley had got his fractions right on the former he would have won.
As a few of us here expected was the case, The Irish Rover proved he is far superior than the bare result of his last run would have you believe. Aidan said he is one of his strongest juveniles and he’ll be taking him to Royal Ascot. For which race we can only guess, but he showed there today that he gets 6f very well.
As I said earlier in the thread, the ante post targets for these 2 year old sprinters are extremely fickle, and he is another possible threat to Sergei Prokofiev’s participation in this race.
To make matters worse, Sergei himself is running over 5f for the Rochestown in Naas tomorrow. It puts those of us who have backed him for this race in an awkward position, because we would all obviously love to see him win well, but perhaps not too well. If he shows enough pace over 5f tomorrow it could warrant a run in the Norfolk rather than the Coventry.
Aidan’s trio of Sergei Prokofiev, The Irish Rover, and Van Beethoven all look closely tied, and trying to guess which of the them lines up in which race at Ascot could prove costly to those not already on.
